{"id":282957,"date":"2023-10-12T12:36:33","date_gmt":"2023-10-12T10:36:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282957"},"modified":"2023-10-12T12:36:37","modified_gmt":"2023-10-12T10:36:37","slug":"climate-out-of-control-a-reality-check","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282957","title":{"rendered":"Climate \u201cout of control\u201d? A reality check"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Climate change doesn\u2019t explain why September 2023 is so much warmer than September 2022, not even the 1976\/77 climate shift.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Net Zero Watch<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Why are many parts of the world so warm right now? Over the past four months we have seen record-breaking temperatures. September, globally-averaged, was 0.5\u00b0C above the previous record. 2023 is bound to be the warmest year of the instrumental record period. This is quite extraordinary, but what is behind this sudden spike in temperature?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking on Channel 4,\u00a0Piers Forster<\/a>\u00a0of the Climate Change Committee, said the sudden uptick in temperatures was\u00a0500 times bigger<\/a>\u00a0than climate scientists expected. He says the temperature record covered the whole world. Gavin Schmidt of the Goddard Spaceflight Center said 20% of the globe was setting new records. Others said it was just 12%. The Guardian\u2019s front page said simply\u00a0\u201cOut of Control.<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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It\u2019s a state of affairs that has caused much confusion among climate scientists and commentators (often the same thing) many of whom attribute the sudden spike to climate change \u2013 but in doing so end up being rather muddled and contradictory. But is there anything really \u2018out of control\u2019? Is this abrupt climate change? Perhaps a transition, the crossing of a threshold?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are some who look towards climate computer models for an explanation, saying that what we have seen over the past few months is in line with expected warming but at the upper end of the scale. This is highly unlikely because the events of a few months, especially during a strong El Ni\u00f1o year when there is so much variability going on, are not a climate change event, even though\u00a0Zeke Hausfather<\/a> has said that 2023 has been unusual for the climate. Actually if you view what has happened in terms of climate models it is a clear failure because none predicted the spike \u2013 once again showing their inadequacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, it\u2019s not climate change because \u2013 as reputable climate scientists rightly emphasise \u2013 a sudden temperature spike or drop in a single year (or even in a number years) can and does happen quite frequently, although this year is a particularly unusual spike. Nevertheless, this sudden rise in temperature is on a far too short period to be driven by global warming which is a long-term trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abrupt climate change is possible without human forcing and is not unusual in the climate record, even recently. Between 1976 and 1977, the Tropical Pacific underwent a rapid warming that had global impacts, including over North America, which was wetter than usual for the following two decades. Even today the cause of the 1976\/77 climate shift is still debated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The explanation for the recent event has not one cause but multiple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A major reason why parts of the world are so hot is the El Ni\u00f1o which warms the surface of much of the tropical Pacific. This typically raises the global average temperatures by about 0.1\u00b0C to 0.2\u00b0C, but it can be higher due to variability of the phenomenon. Having recently emerged from a triple La Nina, which cools the planet, it is perhaps understandable why this current El Ni\u00f1o is so intense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there is also the new regulations regarding sulphur in ship fuels that has dramatically reduced the sulphur aerosol emission that has cleared the air over many oceans, especially the North Atlantic. Indeed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic are very high this summer after a period of rapid warming in the spring. Globally, the North Atlantic is far in excess of anything we\u2019ve seen in that region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another contributing factor could be the Hunga Tonga eruption<\/em> in the South Pacific last year. It injected large amounts of water vapour into the upper atmosphere probably increasing the greenhouse effect. Initial estimates are quite modest, but they could be revised as further work is done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Sun might also be playing a role, particularly since this current cycle has surprised astronomers by being more intense than expected. In addition to these we have seen persistent high-pressure systems over many land regions such as Australia and Western Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate change means that these changes are acting on an increased global temperature baseline. However, it should be noted that climate change doesn\u2019t explain why September 2023 is so much warmer than September 2022. The main difference is due to a combination of other factors. The best time to judge what has happened over the past few months is to wait until the year after the current El Ni\u00f1o subsides. There is a significant chance that global temperatures will drop, just as they dropped after the last big El Ni\u00f1o spike in 2015\/16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Feedback: david.whitehouse@netzerowatch.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Climate change doesn\u2019t explain why September 2023 is so much warmer than September 2022, not even the 1976\/77 climate shift. From Net Zero Watch Why are many parts of the world so warm right now? Over the past four months we have seen record-breaking temperatures. September, globally-averaged, was 0.5\u00b0C above the previous record. 2023 is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":282962,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Climate change doesn\u2019t explain why September 2023 is so much warmer than September 2022, not even the 1976\/77 climate shift.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818465,691818056,691819102,691823550,691820425],"class_list":["post-282957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-computer-models","tag-out-of-control","tag-temperature-record","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0various-golden-summer-front.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1bBP","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":283287,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283287","url_meta":{"origin":282957,"position":0},"title":"David Whitehouse: Climate \u201cout of control\u201d? 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Guest essay by Larry Hamlin NOAA has released its\u00a0September 2023 Contiguous U.S. USCRN temperature anomaly data shown below\u00a0with the years 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2022 recorded USCRN September temperature anomaly data exceeding\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Emergency\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Emergency","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-emergency"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0anger.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0anger.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0anger.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0anger.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0anger.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=282957"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282957\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":282964,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282957\/revisions\/282964"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/282962"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=282957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=282957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=282957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}