{"id":282780,"date":"2023-10-10T21:38:22","date_gmt":"2023-10-10T19:38:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282780"},"modified":"2023-10-10T21:38:26","modified_gmt":"2023-10-10T19:38:26","slug":"settled-science-shock-earth-temperatures-rise-ahead-of-co2-emissions-say-scientists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282780","title":{"rendered":"Settled Science Shock: Earth Temperatures Rise AHEAD of CO2 Emissions, Say Scientists"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, atmospheric CO2 levels are approximately 420 ppm, 270 ppm above where mankind would become extinct.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY CHRIS MORRISON<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Dramatic new and improved evidence points to temperatures on Earth rising before <\/em>an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. The new findings<\/a> are causing considerable concern in the \u2018settled\u2019 world of climate science where a political narrative promoting Net Zero demands that it is undeniable that temperatures rise after humans burn fossil fuels. The controversy has been building for about a year since initial findings were first published<\/a> by the U.K. Royal Society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest work from four scientists uses sophisticated stochastic or change-formulated causality techniques to examine data from numerous temperature and CO2<\/sub> data sets over the last 60 years. As with the initial findings published by the Royal Society, they found the causality link placing a CO2<\/sub> rise ahead of temperature cannot be scientifically supported since it is clearly shown that temperature precedes CO2<\/sub> by six or more months. \u201cAll evidence resulting from the analysis suggests a unidirectional, potentially causal link with temperature as the cause and CO2<\/sub> as the effect,\u201d they state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The collectivist Net Zero project relies on the assumption that humans operate a climate thermostat by burning fossil fuel. The UN-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change promotes the suggestion that all variation in the climate since 1900 has been caused by humans. But the hypothesis of anthropogenic climate change was always shaky since no scientist can prove the actual amount of warming to be expected, while scientific observations going back 600 million years offer little proof of a conclusive link.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will be hard for activists and alarmists to debunk these findings since the scientific process demands the need to critically examine and justify every proposed causal link. Of course given the initial involvement of the Royal Society, the cancellation weapon may be considered as a late option. However the scientists have noted that their current and more detailed work was developed after critical review in the Royal Society journal. \u201cSome concerns expressed by critics, such as lengths of time series, effect of seasonality, effect of timescale, are dealt with in this new paper. No-one has however developed any critique of the methodology,\u201d they note. The mathematics involved are complex and readers can access the full workings in the paper, which is linked in the first paragraph of this article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The lead author is Professor Demetris Koutsoyiannis from the University of Athens and there are three others contributors from Athens, London (Imperial) and Poznan. The paper is titled \u2018On Hens, Eggs, Temperature and CO2<\/sub>: Causal Links in Earth\u2019s Atmosphere<\/a>\u2019. The reference to hens and eggs highlights a basic, age-old concept in the scientific process. What is the sequence of cause and effect \u2013 what came first, the hen or the egg?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This paper may well hasten the breakdown of the always shaky hypothesis that humans hold the climate thermostat, and can control it by regulating their own CO2<\/sub> production. Ironically the recent rush to don sandwich-board doomsday placards by activists and media after a warm summer suggests its \u2018settled\u2019 days may be numbered. If human-caused CO2<\/sub> was causing the climate to warm, it would only be detectable over a longer period. But the longer period does not offer much evidence of a direct link, with the last 150 years showing rises, falls and pauses in the global temperature record. Instead alarmists have had to fall back on anomalies which show one-off departures from the norm. It is impossible to link human-caused CO2<\/sub>, or indeed any CO2<\/sub>, to an outlier over a month or so. Of course this has not stopped pseudoscientists using computer models to claim they can link an individual weather event to the long-term trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The above graph, recently tweeted by the science writer Andy May, demonstrates how unscientific the use of individual outliers to prove a doomsday prediction can be. It shows the global temperature measured by satellites since 2015, and reveals a small downward trend<\/a> over the last eight years. But there are departures from the norm, both higher and lower over the period including a spike upwards this year. When doomsters start to catastrophise the heat spikes but ignore the trend, it is time to start counting the spoons. When the Guardian <\/em>runs a front page story titled \u2018\u201cGobsmackingly bananas\u201d: scientists stunned by planet\u2019s record September heat<\/a>\u2018, it might even be time to call for the men in white coats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Koutsoyiannis-led scientists are adamant that it is not possible to attribute climate change to just one human agent. Not least, such a suggestion fails to explain 4.5 billion years of changing climate. While not the main scope of the paper, the authors observe that natural CO2<\/sub> changes due to temperature rises are larger by a factor of three than the 4% produced by humans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The biosphere is noted to be more productive at higher temperatures with more biochemical reactions \u2013 in other words, plant growth. This leads to a \u2018greening\u2019 of the planet which in its turn produces even more of the so-called carbon fertilisation effect. It might be additionally noted that this has occurred over the last few decades with 14% more plant growth observed across the planet, a process that has undoubtedly led to less global famine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors go on to provide other reasons for climate change, many of which will be familiar to regular readers including oceanic heat exchange, solar and geological activity. They conclude on a note of realism, seemingly lost in the mainstream rush to attribute all climate change to humans:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Causal links in complex systems may form endless sequences\u2026 it is na\u00efve to expect complete answers to problems related to complex systems, or to assume that a complex system is in permanent equilibrium, and that an external agent is needed to \u2018kick\u2019 it out of the equilibrium and produce change.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the<\/em> Daily Sceptic\u2019s<\/em> Environment Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today, atmospheric CO2 levels are approximately 420 ppm, 270 ppm above where mankind would become extinct. From The Daily Sceptic BY CHRIS MORRISON Dramatic new and improved evidence points to temperatures on Earth rising before an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. The new findings are causing considerable concern in the \u2018settled\u2019 world of climate science where a political narrative promoting […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":282786,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Today, atmospheric CO2 levels are approximately 420 ppm, 270 ppm above where mankind would become extinct.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819108,691819134,691818056,691818076,691818087,691818154,691820151],"class_list":{"0":"post-282780","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-dioxide","9":"tag-climate-alarmism","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-co2","12":"tag-global-warming","13":"tag-net-zero","14":"tag-the-science","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Photosynthesis-Diagram-1536x1138-1.jpg?fit=1536%2C1138&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1byY","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":394689,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=394689","url_meta":{"origin":282780,"position":0},"title":"On the CO2 Fertilization Effect (real science for EPA)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cWhat would happen if CO2 doubled from the current approximately 400 ppm in the atmosphere to 800 ppm? Crop yields worldwide would increase by about 40%, based on empirical findings of how CO2 concentrations affect crop yields.\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"benefits\u00a0of CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"benefits\u00a0of CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=benefits-of-co2-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMYOsAm4YGxnpSC6oNEFMGuagorN22lYvyeazZ6H3T2KEwMy8gu2K1vJGIBIZHYkBxd0ivlJ5WksS2S3OAlHAhu9R12ypvhk14ebTTL_LIT-xBOhXq00BNAAGROiwIWiIUxGnzXmHN3-sPkaOI514jhNwyDJw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMYOsAm4YGxnpSC6oNEFMGuagorN22lYvyeazZ6H3T2KEwMy8gu2K1vJGIBIZHYkBxd0ivlJ5WksS2S3OAlHAhu9R12ypvhk14ebTTL_LIT-xBOhXq00BNAAGROiwIWiIUxGnzXmHN3-sPkaOI514jhNwyDJw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMYOsAm4YGxnpSC6oNEFMGuagorN22lYvyeazZ6H3T2KEwMy8gu2K1vJGIBIZHYkBxd0ivlJ5WksS2S3OAlHAhu9R12ypvhk14ebTTL_LIT-xBOhXq00BNAAGROiwIWiIUxGnzXmHN3-sPkaOI514jhNwyDJw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMYOsAm4YGxnpSC6oNEFMGuagorN22lYvyeazZ6H3T2KEwMy8gu2K1vJGIBIZHYkBxd0ivlJ5WksS2S3OAlHAhu9R12ypvhk14ebTTL_LIT-xBOhXq00BNAAGROiwIWiIUxGnzXmHN3-sPkaOI514jhNwyDJw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMYOsAm4YGxnpSC6oNEFMGuagorN22lYvyeazZ6H3T2KEwMy8gu2K1vJGIBIZHYkBxd0ivlJ5WksS2S3OAlHAhu9R12ypvhk14ebTTL_LIT-xBOhXq00BNAAGROiwIWiIUxGnzXmHN3-sPkaOI514jhNwyDJw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":358601,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=358601","url_meta":{"origin":282780,"position":1},"title":"Science Shock: CO2 is Good for the Planet, Peer-Reviewed Studies Suggest","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/25\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Dramatic evidence has been published in a number of recent science papers that carbon dioxide levels are already\u00a0\u2018saturated\u2019, meaning little or no further warming is to be expected, and rising CO2\u00a0levels are all beneficial.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screenshot-2024-12-23-202651.jpeg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screenshot-2024-12-23-202651.jpeg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screenshot-2024-12-23-202651.jpeg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screenshot-2024-12-23-202651.jpeg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screenshot-2024-12-23-202651.jpeg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":322648,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=322648","url_meta":{"origin":282780,"position":2},"title":"\u00a03 Physicists Use Experimental Evidence To Show CO2\u2019s Capacity To Absorb Radiation Has Saturated","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/25\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Adding CO2 to the atmosphere can have no significant climatic effect when rising above the threshold of about 300 ppm. Due to saturation, higher and higher concentrations do not lead to any further absorption of radiation.","rel":"","context":"In \"absorption of radiation\"","block_context":{"text":"absorption of radiation","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=absorption-of-radiation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00iStock-976912100.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00iStock-976912100.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00iStock-976912100.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00iStock-976912100.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/00iStock-976912100.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":385718,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=385718","url_meta":{"origin":282780,"position":3},"title":"Agriculture: It\u2019s Worse Than We Thought,\u00a0Again","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/29\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A week ago, the compliant media was happily swallowing, and regurgitating, yet another \u201cworse than we thought\u201d study, this time on the topic of how future climate change was going to starve humanity.","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0globalgreening_tamo_2017_lrg.png?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0globalgreening_tamo_2017_lrg.png?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0globalgreening_tamo_2017_lrg.png?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0globalgreening_tamo_2017_lrg.png?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0globalgreening_tamo_2017_lrg.png?fit=1200%2C648&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":351059,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351059","url_meta":{"origin":282780,"position":4},"title":"\u00a0New Study: Human Contribution To Enhancement Of Earth\u2019s Greenhouse Effect A Negligible 0.2 Percent","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/13\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c[T]he contribution of CO2 to the greenhouse effect is 4% \u2013 5%. 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