{"id":282737,"date":"2023-10-10T19:11:56","date_gmt":"2023-10-10T17:11:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282737"},"modified":"2023-10-10T19:12:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-10T17:12:00","slug":"the-future-is-evs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282737","title":{"rendered":"The Future Is\u00a0EVs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These prophecies are true if by that time the opposition is banned.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Climate Scepticism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY\u00a0JIT<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

By Order<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you crawl around the drainpipes of the internet enough, you will see plenty of news about how great things are going for EVs. An example this week from Mr. Bloomberg is shown in the featured image.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Visit the link<\/a> for the entire self-congratulatory marmalade.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This excerpt hints at what is actually going on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

COLIN McKERRACHER (BloombergNEF\u2019s head of Advanced Transport): But policy really matters and what you can safely say is that in places where there is no supportive policy, there\u2019s very, very little EV adoption. And in places where there\u2019s a lot of policy, there\u2019s a lot of adoption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JIT: And in places where packs of starving feral dogs roam, people don\u2019t take their families on picnics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a car review<\/a> a fortnight ago, it was reported that the Lucid Air is the best EV around. According to Auto Express,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

It\u2019s a crying shame we won\u2019t get the Lucid Air in the UK, for it is arguably the best EV in the world right now.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

OK Kevin, how much is it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The basic version available in some European countries\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

costs the equivalent of just 80 grand and delivers a real-world range of over 400 miles, a 0-62mph claim of less than four seconds and a top speed of 140mph. And that\u2019s just the base model.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Just 80 grand! For just the base model. Remarkable!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story of Lucid Motors (so far\u2026) is an interesting one. In 2021, Lucid was the next big thing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In fact, some smart guy called Mr. \u201cOn the Pulse\u201d got so excited by Lucid that he\u00a0bet the farm on it.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What happened next? This headline \u2013 coincidentally also from Mr. Bloomberg \u2013 hints that not everything is rosy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This is what happened to the share price after Mr. \u201cOn the Pulse\u201d invested half his net worth in the project (at about where the blue dot is).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Clipped from\u00a0Tradingeconomics.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The good news for Mr. \u201cOn the Pulse\u201d is that he still has the 50% of his net worth that he didn\u2019t spend on Lucid shares. However, it is fair to say that he is\u00a0ruing his punt<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

I count my investment in Lucid Motors as the largest investment error I have made so far.Mr. On the Pulse<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Well, you can say that again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

I count my investment in Lucid Motors as the largest investment error I have made so far.Mr. On the Pulse<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Thanks. I heard you the first time. Lucid has gone for the luxury EV market, which of course is low volume and rife with competition. Maybe they will make a go of it. They do have the serious backing of the Saudis, so they will not go bankrupt any time soon. Obviously Lucid are not really going to be affected by EV mandates or quotas, which will mostly benefit mass market vehicles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And what about those mandates-slash-quotas themselves?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, the air started going out of Rishi Sunak\u2019s EV mandate \u201cconcession\u201d before he had finished speaking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hooray! No new car buyer will be forced to buy an EV in 2030. Except they will. Oh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s because rather than ban ICE vehicles entirely, he\u2019s merely offering the sop of an allowable quota of 20%, sliding rapidly down from a 78% allowable quota of ICEs next year<\/a>. Yeh, Mr. Denier, but any one of us could be in that 78% next year or 20% in 2030, so we aren\u2019t banned from buying an ICE car. No indeed. But the back of my envelope tells me that we will be paying a lot more for our ICE car than otherwise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m not going to go over the numbers here, but my toy estimate of the effect of the quota is of an additional cost to consumers and businesses of \u00a34 billion per quarter in 2030 at the low end (should we fully comply with the 80% mandate). This just accounts for the extra costs of EVs: there are no fines, because the proportion of ICEs is within the quota.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s just for sales of course. You may argue that there will be savings on fuel so the net cost is lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note also that my estimate of \u00a34 bill does not include the additional costs created by the new zero-emission van mandate (10% next year and cranking up). You can probably add a billion per quarter in 2030 for that. The ball-park is \u00a320 billion a year in added costs for no improvement in productivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This all adds to inflation of course. However, it may marginally reduce CO2<\/sub> emissions and\/or particulates, with the caveat that the heavier EVs will produce more particulates from their tyres, if anyone cares about that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ASTERISK: Everything I know about economics I learnt from Economics for Dummies, so I am very much Jon Snow on the topic. My estimate of these costs is not science. Although I can show my working if it is demanded. The cost to the country if we fully comply is easy to compute given reasonable assumptions: (i) \u00a310,000 average cost advantage for ICE vs EV and (ii) no reduction in overall sales volumes. Numbers for partial compliance are a bit harder to work out but are easy enough with a spreadsheet. Of course the real picture is far more complex than my toy model; there are not two kinds of cars, one costing \u00a310,000 less than the other but subject to a \u00a315,0000 fine for each vehicle over a 20% quota.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DOUBLE ASTERISK: The toy model implies that the Exchequer would rather we carried on buying ICEs. That way, they get the full VED, the fuel duty, and the VAT on it, plus the value of all the fines. If we comply with the mandate fully, the tax take from the fines will be diverted to paying the costs of the car companies, while the fuel duty etc goes up in smoke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s the non-U-turn U-turn, which was accompanied by a mixture of indignation and credulity and not enough cynicism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One would have thought that the future should have a certain inevitability about it. Do EVs? I don\u2019t think so. EV sales can limp along with a burly man on each arm, but once the burlies let go, the sales fall over. EVs will eventually have to stand on their own four wheels. Naturally if by that time the opposition is banned\u2026 well, then the prophecies are true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EVs are the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

These prophecies are true if by that time the opposition is banned. From Climate Scepticism BY\u00a0JIT By Order If you crawl around the drainpipes of the internet enough, you will see plenty of news about how great things are going for EVs. An example this week from Mr. Bloomberg is shown in the featured image. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":282749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"These prophecies are true if by that time the opposition is banned.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818558,691823495,691823496,691823494,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-282737","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-evs","9":"tag-lucid-motors","10":"tag-mr-on-the-pulse","11":"tag-mr-bloomberg","12":"tag-net-zero","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OIG-16.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1byh","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":257611,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257611","url_meta":{"origin":282737,"position":0},"title":"A Growing Number of US Car Shoppers are rejecting EV\u2019s","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/15\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite strong EV sales growth, the ratio of U.S. car shoppers uninterested in buying an EV is increasing, according to a new\u00a0J.D. Power survey.","rel":"","context":"In \"Electric cars\"","block_context":{"text":"Electric cars","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=electric-cars"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00new-delhi-to-get-more-ev-charging-stations-some-with-battery-swapping-facilities.jpg?fit=1200%2C765&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00new-delhi-to-get-more-ev-charging-stations-some-with-battery-swapping-facilities.jpg?fit=1200%2C765&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00new-delhi-to-get-more-ev-charging-stations-some-with-battery-swapping-facilities.jpg?fit=1200%2C765&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00new-delhi-to-get-more-ev-charging-stations-some-with-battery-swapping-facilities.jpg?fit=1200%2C765&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00new-delhi-to-get-more-ev-charging-stations-some-with-battery-swapping-facilities.jpg?fit=1200%2C765&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":293736,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=293736","url_meta":{"origin":282737,"position":1},"title":"EV Struggles: Front Page News","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe math doesn\u2019t work,\u201d\u00a0Mark Fields, former Ford Motor CEO, told Joe Kernen of CNBC early last week.\u00a0 Until the industry solves charging and cost issues, EV sales will continue to underperform.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"In \"electric vehicles (EVs)\"","block_context":{"text":"electric vehicles (EVs)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=electric-vehicles-evs"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-82.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-82.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-82.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-82.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":286958,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286958","url_meta":{"origin":282737,"position":2},"title":"California EV HELL: QUEUING for chargers at MIDNIGHT!!! | MGUY Australia","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Why on earth would you ever buy an EV? https:\/\/youtu.be\/Vbd2CKQiwN4","rel":"","context":"In \"California\"","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=california"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Screenshot-2023-11-07-112436.png?fit=989%2C570&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Screenshot-2023-11-07-112436.png?fit=989%2C570&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Screenshot-2023-11-07-112436.png?fit=989%2C570&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Screenshot-2023-11-07-112436.png?fit=989%2C570&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":285981,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285981","url_meta":{"origin":282737,"position":3},"title":"The EV bubble popped: VW orders are down 50%, Ford loses $38,000 on each car, Toyota chief, says \u201cpeople are waking up\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Errr, what\u2019s going on here? Several automakers, including Ford and GM, recently announced they would be delaying key parts of their EV rollouts. From JoNova By Jo Nova Godzilla Image by\u00a0seanselbie\u00a0from\u00a0Pixabay Last week the EV bubble popped It\u2019s been a crushing week for the EV industry as the bad news\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"electric vehicles (EVs)\"","block_context":{"text":"electric vehicles (EVs)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=electric-vehicles-evs"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-6.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-6.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-6.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-6.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":271518,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271518","url_meta":{"origin":282737,"position":4},"title":"Unsold Electric Cars May Be Signaling A Death Spiral For The Auto Industry.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Endless government subsidies to encourage EV sales seems unable to sway the logical thinking and the numerous concerns of the average citizens to buy into EV\u2019s.","rel":"","context":"In \"clean energy\"","block_context":{"text":"clean energy","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=clean-energy"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-137.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-137.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-137.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-137.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-137.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":287160,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=287160","url_meta":{"origin":282737,"position":5},"title":"New study finds electric vehicles are driven less than gas cars","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A new study from researchers at the George Washington University suggests that emissions savings from electric vehicles (EV) might be overestimated. In one of the largest studies on EV mileage to date, researchers at GW and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory examined odometer data from 12.9 million used cars and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"battery electric vehicle (BEV) cars\"","block_context":{"text":"battery electric vehicle (BEV) cars","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=battery-electric-vehicle-bev-cars"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OIG-38.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OIG-38.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OIG-38.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OIG-38.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=282737"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282737\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":282752,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282737\/revisions\/282752"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/282749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=282737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=282737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=282737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}