{"id":282169,"date":"2023-10-06T12:50:19","date_gmt":"2023-10-06T10:50:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282169"},"modified":"2023-10-06T12:50:22","modified_gmt":"2023-10-06T10:50:22","slug":"amoc-a-non-tipping-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282169","title":{"rendered":"AMOC: A Non-Tipping point"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"482\" data-attachment-id=\"282178\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=282178\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1200,800\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=723%2C482&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?resize=723%2C482&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-282178\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?resize=1024%2C683&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gabriel Oxenstierna, Ph.D<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of Earth\u2019s major ocean circulation systems\u2014it redistributes heat on our planet and is a key driver of climate variability. There is a northward transport of heat throughout the Atlantic, comprising one quarter of the global heat flux (reaching a maximum of 1.3PW at 25\u00b0N).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"356\" data-attachment-id=\"282170\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=282170\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-116.png?fit=808%2C398&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"808,398\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-116\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-116.png?fit=723%2C356&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-116.png?resize=723%2C356&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-282170\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-116.png?w=808&amp;ssl=1 808w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-116.png?resize=300%2C148&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-116.png?resize=768%2C378&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figur 1.\u00a0AMOC is the Atlantic section of the global Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC). One part of it is the Gulf stream, that transports heat northwards from the tropics.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The heat transport is a balance of the northward flux of the warm Gulf Stream,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ekman_transport\">Ekman pumping<\/a>, and southward fluxes of cooler thermocline, and cold North Atlantic deep water. The circulation is completed after a very long time as the deep waters rise to the surface again in the Southern Ocean. The turnover period of AMOC is many hundreds of years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Forecasts of cascading tipping points<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Several studies have found evidence that both the Gulf stream and the AMOC have weakened during the last 40 years or so.[1][2][3] One highly publicized report warns that a continued weakening would have \u201csevere impacts\u201d and increase the risk of \u201ccascading problems\u201d for other major Earth systems, \u201csuch as the Antarctic ice sheet, tropical monsoon systems and Amazon rainforest\u201d \u2013 see the figure below illustrating the major climate crisis\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Teleconnection\">teleconnections<\/a>\u00a0related to AMOC.[4] Climate crise effects would occur in many other areas as well. Stormier weather, more floods, collapsed plankton production, and widespread oxygen death in the oceans (anoxia) are forecast. The issue of AMOC\u2019s whereabouts is therefore of great interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"669\" height=\"768\" data-attachment-id=\"282172\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=282172\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-117.png?fit=669%2C768&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"669,768\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-117\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-117.png?fit=669%2C768&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-117.png?resize=669%2C768&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-282172\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-117.png?w=669&amp;ssl=1 669w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-117.png?resize=261%2C300&amp;ssl=1 261w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 669px) 100vw, 669px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figur 2.\u00a0AMOC is a centerpiece in the cascades of tipping points thought up by alarmist researchers.[4]<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What the IPCC says<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The IPCC AR6 report highlights AMOC as a main building block in the climate and that it potentially is one of the most important \u2018tipping points\u2019.[5] Over the years, the IPCC has had dramatic projections for the AMOC. In the latest climate report (AR6) they claim that the AMOC currently is at its weakest for the last 1600 years and forecast a dramatic future decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"235\" data-attachment-id=\"282174\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=282174\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-118.png?fit=1324%2C430&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1324,430\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-118\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-118.png?fit=723%2C235&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-118.png?resize=723%2C235&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-282174\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-118.png?resize=1024%2C333&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-118.png?resize=300%2C97&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-118.png?resize=768%2C249&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-118.png?resize=1200%2C390&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-118.png?w=1324&amp;ssl=1 1324w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figur 3.\u00a0AMOC-flow anomalies according to IPCC model simulations. The thick grey and black lines are the history as simulated by the two latest model generations. The colored lines are forecasts from the models according to selected emissions scenarios. Flows are in Sverdrups (Sv, million cubic meters per second). Source: AR6 WG1 fig. 9.10, which is taken from [3]<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The IPCC claims that AMOC is \u201c<em>very likely<\/em>\u201d to weaken over the 21st century under all emission scenarios.[ch 4.3.2.3] An almost monotonous reduction by 25 to 50 percent in 2100 is predicted, depending on which scenario is chosen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">IPCC only has \u201cmedium confidence\u201d that there will&nbsp;<em>not<\/em>&nbsp;be an \u201cabrupt collapse\u201d before 2100.&nbsp;<em>If<\/em>&nbsp;it collapsed, the world\u2019s weather patterns would be dramatically impacted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Model fudging begets a history revision\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the historical part, figure 3 is&nbsp;<em>model based<\/em>.[3] Comparing the modelled history in the older CMIP5 and the newer CMIP6 computer model ensembles, we see that AMOC is bumped up in CMIP6, especially during the second half of the 20<sup>th<\/sup>&nbsp;century up until 1990.&nbsp;<a>As a result of this history revision in the models, the CMIP6 models now show a much more pronounced weakening from around 1980.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The revised history neatly fits the narrative that a decline in the AMOC is mainly caused by increased levels of greenhouse gases, i.e., that it is caused by anthropogenic global warming (AGW).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u2026but no decline seen in recent data from the Atlantic<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recently, we got an update from the measuring stations called\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rapid.ac.uk\/rapidmoc\/overview.php\">RAPID<\/a>, which directly measure the various flows that together constitute AMOC. RAPID measures AMOC at a series of stations, located at 26.5 N. The flows are measured in the Gulf Stream, another part is the Ekman transport, and finally the southbound return flow of different layers of cold water. These three components together form AMOC, see the red time series in the figure below (copied from the RAPID website).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"566\" data-attachment-id=\"282175\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=282175\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-119.png?fit=753%2C589&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"753,589\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-119\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-119.png?fit=723%2C566&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-119.png?resize=723%2C566&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-282175\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-119.png?w=753&amp;ssl=1 753w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-119.png?resize=300%2C235&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figur 4.\u00a0Readings of the AMOC flows in Sverdrups (Sv). (A)MOC is the red curve with a flow of 16.8 \u00b14.6Sv. It comprises the Gulf stream (green, 31.3 \u00b13.1 Sv), the Ekman transport (black, 3.7 \u00b13.5 Sv), and the cold, deep southbound flow (lila, -18.2 \u00b13.4 Sv). The latest data are up until March 2022. Source:\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/rapid.ac.uk\/rapidmoc\/overview.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>RAPID<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As can be seen from the figure, the AMOC did have a certain decrease at the very beginning of the RAPID measurement period, from 2004 until 2010, but after that AMOC is trend-stable. The Gulf stream shows a slight decrease, in line with the above-mentioned research, whereas the other components are stable. Volatility is also stable over time within a fairly large short-term variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Data collected directly in the Atlantic Ocean thus do not provide any support for the IPCC\u2019s forecasts of an ongoing collapse of the AMOC.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>IPCC\u2019s forecasts disputed by field research<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In recent years, a number of research reports have been published that put the IPCC forecasts into question.[6][7] Some of the researchers behind RAPID write that they can\u2019t find any signs of a weakening AMOC during the last 30 years.[6] This is the very period where the revised history from IPCC claims there is a steep decline, due to their climate models. Reality vs. fiction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The researchers write that AMOC rather seems to be \u201ca decadal oscillation, which is superimposed on a multidecadal cycle\u201d. Paleoclimatic records also show distinct multidecadal variability of the AMOC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Which are then the dominant feedbacks and their associated timescales in AMOC\u2019s natural variability? Is AMOC variability periodic, or quasi-periodic? The timescales, as well as the mechanisms behind these natural variations remain unexplained. This is no wonder, given the current\u2019s extended turnaround time (100\u2019s of years). The IPCC itself is not too sure about the state of the AMOC: \u201c<em>Given the large discrepancy between modelled and reconstructed AMOC in the twentieth century and the uncertainty over the realism of the 20th century modelled AMOC response (Section 3.5.4.1), we have&nbsp;<u>low confidence<\/u>&nbsp;in both<\/em>.\u201d (p. 9-32)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Summing up<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\" type=\"1\">\n<li>The model makers have managed to create an impression of a steeper decline in the AMOC from 1990 and onwards by manipulating the models from the CMIP5 to the CMIP6 model generations. This manipulation of the history fits the climate crisis narrative that a decline in the AMOC is caused by greenhouse gas emissions and AGW.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The IPCC is not too convinced and gives a \u201c<em>low confidence<\/em>\u201d to the models. This doesn\u2019t stop the IPCC from forecasting a sharp and monotonous decrease of the AMOC as \u201c<em>very likely<\/em>\u201c. They promote a climate crisis narrative entirely built on models they themselves give a low confidence rating.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The issue of natural variability is pertinent to all discussions on the AMOC, but remains unresolved. This doesn\u2019t stop the IPCC from giving the primary role in AMOC developments to the effects of greenhouse gas emissions and AGW.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The empirical data on the water flows in the various strands of the AMOC in the Atlantic show no decline in the last 30 years. The AMOC is stable and doesn\u2019t show any sign of decline.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Referen<\/strong><strong>c<\/strong><strong>e<\/strong><strong>s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[1]&nbsp;<em>Robust Weakening of the Gulf Stream During the Past Four Decades Observed in the Florida Straits<\/em>, Piecuch and Beal, 2023,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2023GL105170\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2023GL105170<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[2]&nbsp;<em>Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation<\/em>, Niklas Boers, Nature 2021,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41558-021-01097-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41558-021-01097-4<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[3]&nbsp;<em>Aerosol-Forced AMOC Changes in CMIP6 Historical Simulations<\/em>, Menary and 13 co-authors, 2020,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2020GL088166\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2020GL088166<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[5] IPCC SROCC \u201cExtremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks\u201d, Chapter 6.7,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/site\/assets\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2022\/03\/08_SROCC_Ch06_FINAL.pdf\">https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/site\/assets\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2022\/03\/08_SROCC_Ch06_FINAL.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[4]&nbsp;<em>Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points<\/em>, Armstrong McKay and 5 co-authors, Science 2022,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.abn7950\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.abn7950<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[6]&nbsp;<em>A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline<\/em>, Worthington and 5 co-authors, 2021,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/os-17-285-2021\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/os-17-285-2021<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[7]&nbsp;<em>A stable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing North Atlantic Ocean since the 1990s<\/em>, Fu and 4 co-authors, Science 2022,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.abc7836\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.abc7836<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Gabriel Oxenstierna is a PhD at Stockholm University and one of the Clintel signatories.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Watts Up With That? Gabriel Oxenstierna, Ph.D The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of Earth\u2019s major ocean circulation systems\u2014it redistributes heat on our planet and is a key driver of climate variability. There is a northward transport of heat throughout the Atlantic, comprising one quarter of the global heat flux (reaching a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":282178,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of Earth\u2019s major ocean circulation systems\u2014it redistributes heat on our planet and is a key driver of climate variability.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821384,691818056,691818102,691818327,691821383,691820246],"class_list":{"0":"post-282169","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-climate-crisis","11":"tag-cmip5","12":"tag-gulf-stream","13":"tag-ipcc-ar6","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1bp7","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":363205,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363205","url_meta":{"origin":282169,"position":0},"title":"AMOC Alarmism Doesn\u2019t Stick (Wunsch caution)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent peer-reviewed\u00a0article\u00a0in\u00a0Nature\u00a0(discussed\u00a0here) has, once again, knocked this speculative \u201cfat tail\u201d hypothesis down to size. \u201cBased on the here identified relationship and observation-based estimates of the past air-sea heat flux in the North Atlantic from reanalysis products,\u201d the authors concluded, \u201cthe decadal averaged AMOC at 26.5\u00b0N has not weakened from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0348_1255575_f1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C466&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0348_1255575_f1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C466&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0348_1255575_f1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C466&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0348_1255575_f1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C466&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0348_1255575_f1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C466&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":337048,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337048","url_meta":{"origin":282169,"position":1},"title":"AMOC\u2019s \u201cCold Blob\u201d Has Gone Missing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"For the first time, the IPCC\u2019s doctrine of CO2 as a \u2018control knob\u2019 in our climate faces a serious challenger in the form of a comprehensive hypothesis about what drives climate and its shifts. \u2013 This article is the fourth in a series evaluating this new hypothesis of natural climate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-ocean-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Screenshot-2024-07-20-143158.png?fit=1171%2C611&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Screenshot-2024-07-20-143158.png?fit=1171%2C611&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Screenshot-2024-07-20-143158.png?fit=1171%2C611&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Screenshot-2024-07-20-143158.png?fit=1171%2C611&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Screenshot-2024-07-20-143158.png?fit=1171%2C611&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":362457,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362457","url_meta":{"origin":282169,"position":2},"title":"Critical ocean current has not declined in the last 60 years, AMOC study\u00a0finds","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The headline says it all. Time for persistent AMOC worriers\u00a0like the BBC\u00a0to pack up their coulds, mights and maybes and move on to other speculations. AMOC has many variables and alarmist guessing games are a waste of time.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0pnbldqksjui21.png?fit=1200%2C761&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0pnbldqksjui21.png?fit=1200%2C761&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0pnbldqksjui21.png?fit=1200%2C761&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0pnbldqksjui21.png?fit=1200%2C761&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0pnbldqksjui21.png?fit=1200%2C761&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":349662,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=349662","url_meta":{"origin":282169,"position":3},"title":"Mann\u2019s AMOC Collapse\u00a0Hoax","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Likely you\u2019ve heard the recent and previous warnings from Mann and friends about the ocean conveyor belt (including the Gulf Stream) slowing down and freezing us all.\u00a0 With the COP gathering next month, something scary must be proclaimed, and Global Freezing is it, replacing Global Boiling earlier this year. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic tipping point risks\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic tipping point risks","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-tipping-point-risks"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00-The-day-after-tomorrow-1024x576.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00-The-day-after-tomorrow-1024x576.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00-The-day-after-tomorrow-1024x576.jpeg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00-The-day-after-tomorrow-1024x576.jpeg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":362826,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362826","url_meta":{"origin":282169,"position":4},"title":"Surprise! The North Atlantic Current is Stable","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Another nail in the coffin of climate models? A study published in Nature suggests there is no evidence for a decline in AMOC over the last 60 years.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-21-073653.png?fit=1198%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-21-073653.png?fit=1198%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-21-073653.png?fit=1198%2C672&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-21-073653.png?fit=1198%2C672&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-21-073653.png?fit=1198%2C672&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":368165,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368165","url_meta":{"origin":282169,"position":5},"title":"Why Isn\u2019t the Mainstream Media Reporting that Ocean Circulation Is Doing Well?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"For decades, mainstream media outlets have asserted that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is on the verge of collapse, bringing catastrophic consequences to the planet. This is false. Recent research indicates that climate change has not altered the Atlantic Ocean current, despite repeated claims by the media and some\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0atlanticocea.jpg?fit=1200%2C842&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0atlanticocea.jpg?fit=1200%2C842&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0atlanticocea.jpg?fit=1200%2C842&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0atlanticocea.jpg?fit=1200%2C842&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0atlanticocea.jpg?fit=1200%2C842&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282169","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=282169"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282169\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":282180,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/282169\/revisions\/282180"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/282178"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=282169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=282169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=282169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}