{"id":281790,"date":"2023-10-04T11:45:24","date_gmt":"2023-10-04T09:45:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281790"},"modified":"2023-10-04T11:45:27","modified_gmt":"2023-10-04T09:45:27","slug":"applying-scale-and-context-to-2023s-record-high-temperatures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281790","title":{"rendered":"Applying Scale and Context to 2023\u2019s \u201cRecord\u201d High Temperatures"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest \u201cgeological scale and context\u201d by David Middleton,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2023 has been a hot year\u2026 We have the makings of a super-El Ni\u00f1o and an unprecedented injection of water vapor<\/a> into the upper atmosphere stacked on top of a general warming trend since 1978, if not since the nadir of the Little Ice Age. So, it should come as no surprise that we have seen satellite-era record high temperatures<\/a>, this summer and early fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a geologist, I always have to apply scale and context to everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scale<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Temperature anomaly records are great tools. They are the only way to accurately describe how global temperatures are changing over time. However, they lack scale. They lack a frame of reference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is a common adage that when a geologist takes a photograph of a person, that person is simply there for scale. Other scale references include: camera lens covers (rendered obsolete by smart phones), quarters, rock hammers, spouses and action figures (on April Fools Day only). The key is to come up with a reference that is relatable. And what temperature is more relatable than a thermometer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1. UAH 6.0 from WoodForTrees (l), UAH 6.0 at gas station thermometer scale.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s an enlarged version:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 2. Sacle.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tenths of a degree don\u2019t really stand out on thermometers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Context<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In geology, context refers to the setting. How do observations fit into the overall setting. Granite is a very common rock on Earth. If I find a football-sized (real football, not soccer) granite rock in Albuquerque, New Mexico, it wouldn\u2019t deviate from the setting. If I found any sized granite rock on the Big Island (Hawaii), would instantly know that a smart-ass geologist intentionally put it there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Irrespective of whether or not any of the recent warming has been caused by anthropogenic activities, it\u2019s fairly easy to put that warming into context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Terando et al., 2020<\/a>, will help be demonstrate this. It features a variation of one of my favorite climate models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 3. Modeled human plus natural climate forcing compared to three instrumental records (see Terando for specifics)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
Figure 4. Modeled human climate forcing compared to three instrumental records (see Terando for specifics)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If the models are reasonably accurate, the early 20th century warming can be explained by natural forcing mechanisms. Whereas, some or all of the warming since about 1975 cannot be explained by natural forcing mechanisms alone. That said, the models only incorporate known, reasonably well-understood, forcing mechanisms. Judith Curry illustrated this concept quite well\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 5. You only find what you\u2019re looking for. (JC at the National Press\u00a0Club<\/a>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s assume\u00a0arguendo<\/em>\u00a0that all of the warming since 1975 is due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. What would this mean? It\u2019s about 0.8 \u00b0C. warmer now than it was in 1975 (the last time the models didn\u2019t require an anthropogenic component). Here\u2019s UAH 6.0 overlaid on the Terando, 2020 model:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 6. Is +0.8 \u00b0C since 1975 a problem?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

1974-1975: The Context<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
Figure 7. Time Magazine, June 24, 1974<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"
Figure 8. Newsweek, April 20, 1975<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"
Figure 9. Science News, March 1, 1975<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
\"\"
Figure 10. Context<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Assuming the climate models are valid, fossil fuel emissions saved us from \u201cThe Ice Age Cometh.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WTF do Hawaii, Albuquerque and granite have to do with this? Anyone?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reference<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Terando, A., Reidmiller, D., Hostetler, S.W., Littell, J.S., Beard, T.D., Jr., Weiskopf, S.R., Belnap, J., and Plumlee, G.S., 2020, Using information from global climate models to inform policymaking\u2014The role of the U.S. Geological Survey: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020\u20131058, 25 p.,
https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3133\/ofr20201058<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Watts Up With That? Guest \u201cgeological scale and context\u201d by David Middleton, 2023 has been a hot year\u2026 We have the makings of a super-El Ni\u00f1o and an unprecedented injection of water vapor into the upper atmosphere stacked on top of a general warming trend since 1978, if not since the nadir of the Little Ice […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":281809,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"2023 has been a hot year\u2026 We have the makings of a super-El Ni\u00f1o and an\u00a0unprecedented injection of water vapor\u00a0into the upper atmosphere stacked on top of a general warming trend since 1978, if not since the nadir of the Little Ice Age. So, it should come","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818153,691818087,691821251,691823279],"class_list":{"0":"post-281790","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-global-warming","11":"tag-high-temperatures","12":"tag-the-ice-age-cometh","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OIG-2023-08-04T125905.505.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1bj0","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":209649,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=209649","url_meta":{"origin":281790,"position":0},"title":"Climate Alarmists Respond to the Global Warming Pause","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Essay by Eric Worrall The oceans swallowed my global warming? Desperate butt covering from alarmists who are facing increasingly embarrassing questions about the failure of the world to end. 14 July 2022\u00a0\u00a016:41Factcheck: No, global warming has not \u2018paused\u2019 over the past eight yearsA decade ago, many in the climate community\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-242.png?fit=960%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-242.png?fit=960%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-242.png?fit=960%2C720&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-242.png?fit=960%2C720&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":418336,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418336","url_meta":{"origin":281790,"position":1},"title":"No, NPR, CBS, and NBC, Climate Change Isn\u2019t a Proven Cause of Arctic Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"National Public Radio (NPR) recently published an article titled \u201cOrange rivers and melting glaciers: federal report shows rapid change in the Arctic.\u201d Simultaneously, CBS News published \u201cArctic temperatures increasing at over double the global rate since 2006, NOAA report says,\u201d while NBC News published \u201cArctic is again the hottest it\u2019s\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic sea ice trends\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic sea ice trends","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-sea-ice-trends"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/OIGP.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/OIGP.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/OIGP.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/OIGP.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":278477,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278477","url_meta":{"origin":281790,"position":2},"title":"Pyrenean caves reveal a warmer past","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0New research\u00a0published in the journal \u2018Climate of the Past,\u2019 investigating climate proxy data based on stalagmites is revealing that past climates were warmer than our own.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0estalactitas-cueva.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0estalactitas-cueva.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0estalactitas-cueva.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0estalactitas-cueva.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0estalactitas-cueva.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":293815,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=293815","url_meta":{"origin":281790,"position":3},"title":"Climate Models Hide the Paleo\u00a0Incline","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In\u00a0 2019, the iconic email from the Climategate leak included a comment by Phil Jones about the \u201ctrick\u201d used by Michael Mann to \u201chide the decline,\u201d in his Hockey Stick graph, referring to tree proxy temperatures\u00a0 cooling rather than warming in modern times.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":245655,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=245655","url_meta":{"origin":281790,"position":4},"title":"The Holocene Temperature Conundrum","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate models are clearly not modeling natural climate change accurately, especially not orbital forcing. If you cannot model natural climate change, you have no idea what the human influence on climate is.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-823.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-823.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-823.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-823.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-823.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":255767,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255767","url_meta":{"origin":281790,"position":5},"title":"Little Ice Age Warming Recovery May be Over 2023","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This suggests that humans and the biosphere were enhanced by a warming process that has ended. The solar cycles are again going quiet and are forecast to continue that way.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarm\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarm","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarm"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00IceAge.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00IceAge.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00IceAge.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00IceAge.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00IceAge.png?fit=1200%2C889&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=281790"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281790\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":281810,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281790\/revisions\/281810"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/281809"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=281790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=281790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=281790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}