{"id":281346,"date":"2023-10-01T14:48:54","date_gmt":"2023-10-01T12:48:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281346"},"modified":"2023-10-01T14:48:57","modified_gmt":"2023-10-01T12:48:57","slug":"critical-examination-of-hurricane-intensification-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281346","title":{"rendered":"Critical examination of hurricane intensification predictions."},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why climate models not yet worth their salt!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As all hurricane researchers lament, model predictions of when and where hurricanes will intensify, have not improved much in the past 20 years. As recently as the early 2010s, weather model forecasts failed to predict 88 percent of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. <\/strong>Nonetheless National Public Radio (NPR) has ranted that hurricanes are \u201cintensifying more quickly, turning from less-serious storms to very strong ones in hours or days. Superheated ocean waters hold a lot of extra energy, and a growing storm can draw from that enormous pool.\u201d But such \u201csuperheated water\u201d is not widespread as rising CO2 narratives suggest, but found only in very limited regions and usually associated with \u201cbarrier layers\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricanes intensify as they draw \u201csuperheated\u201d subsurface waters of 65.5\u00b0F or higher. However, when a hurricane\u2019s suction pulls up cooler subsurface waters, the hurricane weakens. This negative feedback naturally limits the intensity of all hurricanes. In the upper panel of the attached graphic, Arnand (2023) illustrates where thin barrier layer exists, hurricane intensity hovers around Category 1. In contrast, where thick barrier layers form, cooler deep waters are prevented from reaching the surface, and instead allow superheated sub-surface waters to cause rapid intensification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Denser fluids don\u2019t naturally rise above less dense fluids! Barrier layer formation happens wherever freshwater overlays dense salty waters. Although solar heating would normally make subsurface waters less dense and rise to the surface, layers with higher saltiness makes the water more dense which inhibits warm convection. That traps and intensifies the subsurface heat, enabling hurricanes to intensify to Category 5.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As illustrated in the middle panel, solar ponds can produce useful heat and electrical generation by simply maintaining a dense salty layer at about a 10-foot depth and overlay it with a fresh upper surface layer. As illustrated in the left-hand graphic, despite ambient air temperatures of only 30\u00b0C, solar pond\u2019s dense salty layer reaches 90\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

( For more details regards solar ponds dynamics, watch Science of Solar Ponds Challenges the Climate Crisis)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n