{"id":281130,"date":"2023-09-29T20:24:52","date_gmt":"2023-09-29T18:24:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281130"},"modified":"2023-09-29T20:24:55","modified_gmt":"2023-09-29T18:24:55","slug":"researchers-forecast-strong-el-nino-and-record-breaking-global-surface-temperatures-in-2023-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281130","title":{"rendered":"Researchers forecast strong El Ni\u00f1o and \u2018record-breaking\u2019 global surface temperatures in\u00a02023\u20132024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FrTallbloke’s Talkshop<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0September 29, 2023 by\u00a0oldbrew<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Climate alarmists have been waiting nearly 8 years, since the last significant El Ni\u00f1o, for another chance to claim natural climate variation as an expression of their chosen non-natural theories. Tremble \u2013 or not \u2013 as the study authors predict \u2018a cascade of climate crises\u2019.<\/em>
\u2013 \u2013 \u2013
A strong El Ni\u00f1o event is going to wreak havoc on global surface temperature and trigger several climate crises in 2023\u20132024, according to researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. [Talkshop comment \u2013 the hype has already started]<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The El Ni\u00f1o event, known for releasing massive heat into the atmosphere, is poised to change atmospheric circulation patterns, influence tropical-extratropical interactions, and impact subtropical jets, monsoons, and even polar vortices, and finally results in a rapid surge in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST), says Phys.org<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study was published in The Innovation Geoscience on Sept. 15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GMST, which integrates global land surface temperature and sea surface temperature, is one of the vital indicators of climate variability and global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its interannual variability is primarily dominated by ENSO events, with El Ni\u00f1o events being particularly influential due to their capacity to release immense heat into the atmosphere, leading to anomalies in atmospheric circulation and changes in the surface energy balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier in 2023, the ensemble prediction system developed by IAP has predicted that there will be an El Ni\u00f1o event in boreal autumn and may be maintained throughout winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on historical climate data and prior studies, the IAP team revealed the potential extent and consequences of the extreme warming expected in 2023\u20132024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their findings indicate a 17% probability that the 2023 GMST will become the highest recorded since 1950, and a staggering 61% probability that it will rank among the top three. In 2024, these probabilities suddenly rise to 56% and 79%, respectively. [Talkshop comment \u2013 \u2018staggering\u2019? None of this proves anything.]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the development of a strong El Ni\u00f1o in 2023, warm anomalies are expected to predominantly affect the tropical central-eastern Pacific, the Eurasian continent, and Alaska. However, in the following year, 2024, warm anomalies are likely to encompass the entire continents, significantly increasing the chance of land-based heat waves, droughts, and wildfires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Prof. Zheng Fei, corresponding author of the study, \u201cIn addition to the surge in surface temperatures, the strong El Ni\u00f1o in 2023-2024 is predicted to trigger a cascade of climate crises.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full article\u00a0here<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Climate crises associated with the predicted strong El Ni\u00f1o in 2023-2024 (A) 12-month forecasts of ensemble-mean Ni\u00f1o3.4 index that started from Oct. 2022 to Aug. 2023 made by IAP ENSO EPS (solid color lines), the shading shows the ensemble spread of forecasted Ni\u00f1o3.4 index starting from Aug. 2023, and the black solid line represents the observed Ni\u00f1o3.4 index from Aug. 2022 to Jul. 2023. (B) Annual time series of GMST anomalies during 1950-2022 (Datasets: BEST, GISTEMP v4). The first and second years of nine strong El Ni\u00f1o events are indicated by orange and red bars, respectively. (C) The statistically forecasted probability for GMSTs to be 1st to 3rd in 2023 and in 2024. (D)-(E) Distribution of STAs in the first and second years of strong El Ni\u00f1o composited by the nine events in B. (F) Annual time series of the OHC0-2000m during 2005-2022 (blue dots), the corresponding linear trend (gray dashed line), and the estimated OHC0-2000m in 2023-2024 (red and orange bars) based on linear regression methods with a 90% confidence interval. Credit:\u00a0The Innovation Geoscience<\/em>\u00a0(2023). DOI: 10.59717\/j.xinn-geo.2023.100030<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FrTallbloke’s Talkshop \u00a0September 29, 2023 by\u00a0oldbrew Climate alarmists have been waiting nearly 8 years, since the last significant El Ni\u00f1o, for another chance to claim natural climate variation as an expression of their chosen non-natural theories. Tremble \u2013 or not \u2013 as the study authors predict \u2018a cascade of climate crises\u2019.\u2013 \u2013 \u2013A strong El […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":281135,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Climate alarmists have been waiting nearly 8 years, since the last significant El Ni\u00f1o, for another chance to claim natural climate variation as an expression of their chosen non-natural theories. Tremble \u2013 or not \u2013 as the study authors predict \u2018a cascade","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691823114,691819743,691819287,691823113],"class_list":{"0":"post-281130","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-crises","10":"tag-climate-propaganda","11":"tag-el-nino-2","12":"tag-global-surface-temperatures","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-876.png?fit=1415%2C1056&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1b8m","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":312201,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312201","url_meta":{"origin":281130,"position":0},"title":"The AP\u2019s Coverage of UN\u2019s \u2018Climate Red Alert\u2019 Is Nothing More Than a Red Herring","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/23\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Associated Press (AP) ran a story claiming that a \u201cred alert\u201d was issued by The United Nations (UN) weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which claimed that global temperature in 2023 set new records due to human caused climate change, and expectations that new record high temperatures would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate propaganda\"","block_context":{"text":"climate propaganda","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-propaganda"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":308233,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=308233","url_meta":{"origin":281130,"position":1},"title":"Collapsing El Ni\u00f1o Spells End to Year-Long Bout of Climate Hysteria","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/14\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"To be serious, the current strong and natural\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0event is starting to dramatically collapse with critical ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific ocean falling from 2.1\u00b0C above normal in late November to 1.3\u00b0C. 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Pielke Jr. in his Substack publication The Honest Broker calls it \u2018weather attribution alchemy\u2019.\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":300570,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300570","url_meta":{"origin":281130,"position":5},"title":"No, Los Angeles Times, Climate Change Is Not \u2018Supercharging\u2019 the Latest Winter Storm","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"An article in the\u00a0Los Angeles Times\u00a0(LAT) by\u00a0Hayley Smith\u00a0and\u00a0Grace Toohey, titled \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o and climate change are supercharging incoming storm, SoCal\u2019s biggest this winter,\u201d\u00a0falsely claims the present storm is being caused or exacerbated by climate change.","rel":"","context":"In \"California\"","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=california"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00HD-Weather-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00HD-Weather-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00HD-Weather-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00HD-Weather-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00HD-Weather-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281130","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=281130"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281130\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":281138,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281130\/revisions\/281138"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/281135"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=281130"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=281130"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=281130"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}