{"id":281024,"date":"2023-09-29T11:37:41","date_gmt":"2023-09-29T09:37:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281024"},"modified":"2023-09-29T11:40:22","modified_gmt":"2023-09-29T09:40:22","slug":"new-study-confirms-gulf-stream-weakening-but-cause-unknown-or-is-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281024","title":{"rendered":"New study confirms Gulf Stream weakening, but cause unknown \u2013 or is\u00a0it?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Tallbloke’s Talkshop<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

September 28, 2023 by\u00a0oldbrew<\/strong>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The lead and co-author have clearly different views on this:
Lead author: \u201cWhile we can definitively say this weakening is happening, we are unable to say to what extent it is related to climate change or whether it is a natural variation.\u201d
Co-author: \u201cIt saddens me to acknowledge, from our study and so many others, and from recent record-breaking headlines, that even the remotest parts of the ocean are now in the grip of our addiction to fossil fuels.\u201d
What have headlines got to do with science research?<\/em>
\u2013 \u2013 \u2013
The Gulf Stream transport of water through the Florida Strait has slowed by 4% over the past four decades, with a 99% certainty that this weakening is more than expected from random chance, according to a new study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Gulf Stream \u2014 which is a major ocean current off the U.S. East Coast and a part of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation \u2014 plays an important role in weather and climate, and a weakening could have significant implications, says Science Daily<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe conclude with a high degree of confidence that Gulf Stream transport has indeed slowed by about 4% in the past 40 years, the first conclusive, unambiguous observational evidence that this ocean current has undergone significant change in the recent past,\u201d states the journal article, \u201cRobust weakening of the Gulf Stream during the past four decades observed in the Florida Straits<\/a>,\u201d published in Geophysical Research Letters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Florida Straits, located between the Florida Keys, Cuba, and The Bahamas, has been the site of many ocean observation campaigns dating to the 1980s and earlier. \u201cThis significant trend has emerged from the dataset only over the past ten years, the first unequivocal evidence for a recent multidecadal decline in this climate-relevant component of ocean circulation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Gulf Stream affects regional weather, climate, and coastal conditions, including European surface air temperature and precipitation, coastal sea level along the Southeastern U.S., and North Atlantic hurricane activity. \u201cUnderstanding past Gulf Stream changes is important for interpreting observed changes and predicting future trends in extreme events including droughts, floods, heatwaves, and storms,\u201d according to the article.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDetermining trends in Gulf Stream transport is also relevant for clarifying whether elements of the large-scale North Atlantic circulation have changed, and determining how the ocean is feeding back on climate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is the strongest, most definitive evidence we have of the weakening of this climatically-relevant ocean current,\u201d said Chris Piecuch, a physical oceanographer with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who is lead author of this study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper does not conclude whether the Gulf Stream weakening is due to climate change or to natural factors, stating that future studies should try to identify the cause of the weakening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhile we can definitively say this weakening is happening, we are unable to say to what extent it is related to climate change or whether it is a natural variation,\u201d Piecuch said. \u201cWe can see similar weakening indicated in climate models, but for this paper we were not able to put together the observational evidence that would really allow us to pinpoint the cause of the observed decline.\u201d
. . .
The study builds on many earlier studies to quantify long-term change in Gulf Stream transport. While the weakening found in the current study is consistent with hypotheses from many previous studies, Piecuch noted that the current study is \u201cwater-tight\u201d and is \u201cthe first unequivocal evidence of a decline.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Piecuch said that the finding of definitive evidence of the weakening of the Gulf Stream transport of water \u201cis a testament to long-term ocean observing and the importance of sustaining long ocean records.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current study, which is part of a bigger six-year project funded by the National Science Foundation to make new measurements of the Gulf Stream at the Florida Straits, emphasizes the importance of having long-term observations, he said. \u201cThe more subtle that the change is that you are looking at, the longer is the observational record that you need to be able to tease that subtle change out of an observational time series.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full article\u00a0here<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The lead and co-author have clearly different views on this:
\nLead author: \u201cWhile we can definitively say this weakening is happening, we are unable to say to what extent it is related to climate change or whether it is a natural variation.\u201d
\nCo-author: \u201cIt saddens me to acknowledge, from our study and so many others, and from recent record-breaking headlines, that even the remotest parts of the ocean are now in the grip of our addiction to fossil fuels.\u201d
\nWhat have headlines got to do with science research?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":281028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818153,691821383,691819051],"class_list":{"0":"post-281024","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-gulf-stream","11":"tag-north-atlantic-ocean","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0fpdl13_140226.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1b6E","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":202057,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=202057","url_meta":{"origin":281024,"position":0},"title":"New Findings Show Gulf Stream \u201cHas Strengthened\u201d Over Past Century\u2026\u201d Heat Transport Has Increased 30%\u201d!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent flurry of scientific publications refute climate model claims of a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The\u00a0latest\u00a0Klimaschau\u00a0looks\u00a0at the latest scientific findings on the Gulf Stream. An excellent review on the latest AMOC science. Here I present the results in English. Climate panic-makers like the Potsdam Institute like to\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0AMOC-volumetic-flowrate.png?fit=683%2C570&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0AMOC-volumetic-flowrate.png?fit=683%2C570&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0AMOC-volumetic-flowrate.png?fit=683%2C570&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":269746,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269746","url_meta":{"origin":281024,"position":1},"title":"Climate Disaster Study: Gulf Stream Could Collapse as Early as 2025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"An AMOC collapse is believed to have caused the\u00a0Younger Dryas, an abrupt return to Northern Hemisphere ice age conditions which occurred 12,900 years ago, which lasted over a thousand years.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":270980,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270980","url_meta":{"origin":281024,"position":2},"title":"The Guardian\u2019s (ocean) circulation problem","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Is there no loyalty among climate extremists? The Guardian makes a mistake about the fundamental difference between the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and suddenly everyone is on its case, some accusing it of sloppy reporting, others demanding a correction of its fake news, (which didn\u2019t\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AMOC\"","block_context":{"text":"AMOC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":218497,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=218497","url_meta":{"origin":281024,"position":3},"title":"Are the North Atlantic Currents Strengthening or Weakening?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The modelers may think differently on this, but the temperate-loving phytoplankton that have recently migrated to the Arctic would surely beg to differ.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-599.png?fit=1024%2C513&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-599.png?fit=1024%2C513&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-599.png?fit=1024%2C513&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-599.png?fit=1024%2C513&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":214977,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=214977","url_meta":{"origin":281024,"position":4},"title":"How close is the tipping point?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"New studies on the Atlantic flow system sound out the threshold between natural fluctuations and climate change-driven development","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-951.png?fit=1144%2C876&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-951.png?fit=1144%2C876&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-951.png?fit=1144%2C876&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-951.png?fit=1144%2C876&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-951.png?fit=1144%2C876&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282169,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282169","url_meta":{"origin":281024,"position":5},"title":"AMOC: A Non-Tipping point","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Watts Up With That? Gabriel Oxenstierna, Ph.D The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of Earth\u2019s major ocean circulation systems\u2014it redistributes heat on our planet and is a key driver of climate variability. There is a northward transport of heat throughout the Atlantic, comprising one quarter of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281024","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=281024"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281024\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":281030,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/281024\/revisions\/281030"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/281028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=281024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=281024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=281024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}