{"id":280974,"date":"2023-09-28T19:44:05","date_gmt":"2023-09-28T17:44:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=280974"},"modified":"2023-09-28T19:44:08","modified_gmt":"2023-09-28T17:44:08","slug":"what-happened-to-the-ice-free-arctic-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=280974","title":{"rendered":"What Happened To The Ice-Free\u00a0Arctic?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I wonder how these predictions worked out? (Answers tomorrow!!)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summer melting this year reduced the ice cover to 4.13 million sq km, the smallest ever extent in modern times.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remarkably, this stunning low point was not even incorporated into the model runs of Professor Maslowski and his team, which used data sets from 1979 to 2004 to constrain their future projections. “Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,” the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.”<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

http:\/\/news.bbc.co.uk\/1\/hi\/sci\/tech\/7139797.stm<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/earth\/earthnews\/3318239\/Arctic-ice-could-be-gone-in-five-years.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.groundreport.com\/north-pole-may-be-ice-free-this-summer\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2012\/sep\/17\/arctic-collapse-sea-ice<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.thetimes.co.uk\/article\/arctic-ice-cap-in-death-spiral-xvwm398zpds<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/climate-change\/news\/arctic-could-become-icefree-for-first-time-in-more-than-100-000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":280989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691823076,691823075,691819171,691823074],"class_list":{"0":"post-280974","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-arctic-ice-cap","9":"tag-dramatic-forecasts","10":"tag-ice-free","11":"tag-ice-free-arctic-2","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Wall-Street-Journal_Fred-Singer_sea-level-rise-climate-change_screen.png?fit=1203%2C588&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1b5Q","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":220970,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=220970","url_meta":{"origin":280974,"position":0},"title":"What Happened to the Ice-Free Arctic?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"I wonder how these predictions worked out? (Answers tomorrow!!)","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1307.png?fit=818%2C259&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1307.png?fit=818%2C259&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1307.png?fit=818%2C259&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-1307.png?fit=818%2C259&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":315581,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=315581","url_meta":{"origin":280974,"position":1},"title":"BBC\u2019s Failed \u2018Fact Check\u2019 of Daily Sceptic Report on Arctic Sea Ice","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The BBC\u00a0More or Less\u00a0radio programme recently \u2018fact checked\u2019 the\u00a0Daily Sceptic\u2019s report\u00a0that sea ice in the Arctic had soared to its highest level for 21 years on January 8th this year. Alas, the report was confirmed to be true so the Beeb went down the \u2018cherry pick\u2019 line of attack.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1_112080366_p08c03dy.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1_112080366_p08c03dy.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1_112080366_p08c03dy.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/1_112080366_p08c03dy.jpg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":376738,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=376738","url_meta":{"origin":280974,"position":2},"title":"Now Scientists Claim Near 20-Year Stable Arctic Sea Ice is \u201cUnsurprising\u201d and Predicted by Models","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/04\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Dramatic confirmation that the sea ice in the Arctic has been stable for nearly two decades is contained in a\u00a0recently published\u00a0science paper from a team led by Dr Mark England from the University of Exeter. The finding is of course obvious to anyone who studies the data, but it will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Screenshot-2025-04-27-174602.jpeg?fit=1184%2C759&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Screenshot-2025-04-27-174602.jpeg?fit=1184%2C759&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Screenshot-2025-04-27-174602.jpeg?fit=1184%2C759&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Screenshot-2025-04-27-174602.jpeg?fit=1184%2C759&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0Screenshot-2025-04-27-174602.jpeg?fit=1184%2C759&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":261587,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=261587","url_meta":{"origin":280974,"position":3},"title":"Arctic Ice: A History of Failed Predictions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The latest claim is no different, suggesting that it\u2019s too late now to save Arctic summer ice. But as we\u2019ve seen, the timeline for these forecasts can shift considerably and unpredictably.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Antarctic-ice-loss-speeds-up-sea-level-rise-delays-global-warming-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Antarctic-ice-loss-speeds-up-sea-level-rise-delays-global-warming-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Antarctic-ice-loss-speeds-up-sea-level-rise-delays-global-warming-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Antarctic-ice-loss-speeds-up-sea-level-rise-delays-global-warming-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0Antarctic-ice-loss-speeds-up-sea-level-rise-delays-global-warming-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":397239,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397239","url_meta":{"origin":280974,"position":4},"title":"600b tons of carbon emissions and Arctic Sea ice stays the same for 20 years","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Since 2005, humans have emitted one third of all the emissions we\u2019ve ever put out \u2014 some 600 billion tons of CO2. Yet the Arctic Sea ice is the same as it was twenty years ago. And even though the modelers cling to the excuse that this is \u201cconsistent with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OIGP.5cJ.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OIGP.5cJ.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OIGP.5cJ.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OIGP.5cJ.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":294385,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294385","url_meta":{"origin":280974,"position":5},"title":"The Embarrassing Pause In Arctic Sea Ice Loss Has Lasted 17 Years, Defying IPCC, NSIDC Predictions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists have been using the year 2007 as the starting point for assessing Arctic sea ice trends for nearly a decade. A\u00a02015 study\u00a0published in\u00a0Nature Climate Change\u00a0reported a \u201cnear-zero trend\u201d in summer sea ice over the 7 years from 2007-2013.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=280974"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280974\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":280990,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280974\/revisions\/280990"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/280989"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=280974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=280974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=280974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}