{"id":280752,"date":"2023-09-27T18:52:35","date_gmt":"2023-09-27T16:52:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=280752"},"modified":"2023-09-27T18:52:38","modified_gmt":"2023-09-27T16:52:38","slug":"how-a-growing-energy-gap-threatens-britains-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=280752","title":{"rendered":"How a growing \u2018Energy Gap\u2019 threatens Britain\u2019s\u00a0future"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Two cheers for Rishi Sunak for having the courage to push back on some climate deadlines last week. But the dates he juggles are almost irrelevant. A cliff edge is approaching, and beyond it, a chasm that will devour whoever is in power. This is Britain\u2019s Energy Gap, which is already here, and is getting wider every day.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Gap is easy to understand \u2013 it\u2019s the difference between supply and demand. <\/em>Western societies have committed themselves to the electrification of transport and heating<\/em><\/a>, but without actually providing sufficient electricity to achieve this goal. The size of the gap is contentious. It will be twice as much electricity by 2050 than we make or use today, according to the British Energy Security Strategy.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But nobody believes that number is realistic: in reality, we\u2019ll need much more. Electrifying home heating, transport, and industry and commerce, requires around \u201cfour times\u201d more power than we make and use today, a minister acknowledged in January 2022.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Energy Gap is more than a cost or an inconvenience, but an existential threat to our national security and social stability. The more we depend on unreliable energy, the higher the risk of a catastrophic societal breakdown if the grid fails us.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When demand exceeds supply, the electricity grid collapses, and the consequences of that are very serious indeed. Food can\u2019t reach the supermarkets, because petrol stations can\u2019t pump diesel \u2013 let alone charge an EV. <\/em>People freeze in their homes<\/em><\/a>. Thousands of water pumping stations have no backup power. Without clean water, disease can break out. And don\u2019t expect Britain\u2019s creaking water infrastructure to keep working <\/em>when it can\u2019t cope with a heavy rain shower today.<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This nightmare will most likely happen in deepest midwinter, during those beautiful, clear, calm lulls that the Germans have a word for \u2013 a dunkelflaute. That\u2019s when an anticyclone settles upon us, and the wind doesn\u2019t blow.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last winter, one such a spell lasted over a fortnight, during which time the British mainland saw almost no wattage returned from <\/em>its costly investments in onshore wind<\/em><\/a>: the wind didn\u2019t move the air fast enough to turn their blades. Not many more of our offshore facilities reached the required speed, either, although a few did.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Gap is here today, the National Grid confirms. Today, we need over 60GW of electricity at peak demand, with much of our home heating and transportation using dependable hydrocarbons instead. But even so, the Grid acknowledges we can\u2019t meet demand as it is.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Grid then has to fall back on what it calls \u201coperational tools\u201d, of which <\/em>\u201cDemand Flexibility Service\u201d<\/em><\/a> is the most ominous. We already rely on other countries to sell us their surplus, at a pretty price, via interconnectors. Now imagine what happens when the anticyclone becalms Europe. Then no country could afford to export energy, and the entire continent grinds to a halt.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Surely all the clever people in charge have thought of all this? If only. Simple calculations, using existing official utilisation figures and assuming no population growth, <\/em>suggest that switching cars over to batteries will require over 80GW of additional electricity<\/em><\/a>. That\u2019s assuming the size of the nation\u2019s fleet remains the same.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Add in around 50GW more to keep HGVs and large vans moving. (I haven\u2019t counted small vans, which make more journeys than ever). On top of that, UCL researchers reckon an additional 70GW will be needed at peak times to get us through a cold winter like 2010 using heat pumps.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alas, we\u2019re closing nuclear power stations faster than we\u2018re building them<\/em><\/a>. So the paltry \u201c24 GW [more] by 2050\u201d that the Security Strategy blithely predicts falls short by about 90 per cent. What about batteries, you wonder \u2013 surely there must be a Plan B? Alas, our largest battery backup facility can power 300,000 households for just two hours. That\u2019s not much use for Britain\u2019s other 28 million homes.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s remarkable about the Energy Gap is how so many people in authority have been able to ignore it for so long \u2013 either by fudging reality, or pretending it doesn\u2019t exist at all. In July, the Grid published its latest Future Energy Scenarios (FES), which made an attempt to square the circle.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It does so by predicting we will use much less energy than we do today: up to 52 per cent less. As energy expert and blogger David Turver points out, no Western society has achieved this or would want to. Nor does the Grid doesn\u2019t explain how this will be achieved.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m not the first to warn about the looming societal breakdown, or even write about it. Researcher James McSweeney raised it in The Critic, suggesting it will arrive in 2035. It may be even sooner than that.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNo one has the courage to look people in the eye and explain what that involves,\u201d said Rishi Sunak in his speech last week. I fear that as a storyteller, he has barely begun on such a journey.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But he should take heart that both Germany<\/em><\/a> and Sweden have embarked on emergency expansions of hydrocarbons and nuclear \u2013 while still swearing loyalty to net zero targets. Those pledges, like those sacred targets, don\u2019t mean anything any more.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/business\/2023\/09\/25\/growing-energy-gap-threatens-britains-future\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s new net zero targets will be irrelevant if there’s not enough energy\u00a0CREDIT: POOL\/via REUTERS<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is worth pointing out that Andrew Orlowski is a technology journalist. So he knows what is talking about, unlike the Emma Gattens of the world who environmental reporters and who usually get to report on energy matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Our continued dependence on unreliable energy risks a catastrophic societal breakdown<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":280758,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691823024,691823022,691818904,691821977,691823023,691821045],"class_list":{"0":"post-280752","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-andrew-orlowski","9":"tag-british-energy-security-strategy","10":"tag-dunkelflaute","11":"tag-electric-vehicles-evs","12":"tag-energy-gap","13":"tag-prime-minister-rishi-sunak","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-810.png?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1b2g","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":232824,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=232824","url_meta":{"origin":280752,"position":0},"title":"Rishi Sunak\u2019s incoherent energy policy will poison Britain\u2019s future","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"With one hand the British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is banning exploration for natural gas onshore in the UK, and with the other he is encouraging further development of physically inferior energy sources such as wind and solar.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/00Screenshot-2022-12-07-132454.png?fit=896%2C459&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/00Screenshot-2022-12-07-132454.png?fit=896%2C459&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/00Screenshot-2022-12-07-132454.png?fit=896%2C459&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/00Screenshot-2022-12-07-132454.png?fit=896%2C459&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":271329,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271329","url_meta":{"origin":280752,"position":1},"title":"Rishi Sunak Grants Hundreds of New Oil and Gas Drilling Licences in Latest Setback for Climate Activists","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Rishi Sunak said it would make \u201cabsolutely no sense\u201d for the U.K. not to take advantage of its domestic fossil fuel resources as he announced hundreds of new oil and gas drilling licences in the latest setback for climate activists.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00oilrig-3.png?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00oilrig-3.png?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00oilrig-3.png?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00oilrig-3.png?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00oilrig-3.png?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":201782,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=201782","url_meta":{"origin":280752,"position":2},"title":"Rishi Sunak plans raid on electricity and wind farm profits within a month","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"By Paul Homewood But here is the good news: From The Times: The chancellor is preparing to impose a windfall tax on electricity firms within weeks despite provoking a furious backlash from business yesterday by launching a \u00a35 billion raid on North Sea oil and gas producers.Rishi Sunak yesterday abandoned\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0image-111.png?fit=682%2C352&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0image-111.png?fit=682%2C352&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0image-111.png?fit=682%2C352&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":227227,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=227227","url_meta":{"origin":280752,"position":3},"title":"British Prime Minister Flip-Flop will Now Attend COP27","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"British Prime Minister\u00a0Rishi Sunak\u00a0seems to be shaping up as one of the weakest Conservative Party Prime Ministers Britain has ever produced.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-133.png?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-133.png?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-133.png?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/image-133.png?fit=800%2C400&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282350,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282350","url_meta":{"origin":280752,"position":4},"title":"Environmentalist says ‘all’ presidents, prime ministers will delay gas car bans","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Fox Business Copenhagen Consensus President Bjorn Lomborg on Bill Gates claiming innovation will combat climate change, a carbon tax and U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delaying the ban on gas cars until 2035. There are some smart climate solutions the world should definitely pursue. In an interview on Varney &\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Bill Gates\"","block_context":{"text":"Bill Gates","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bill-gates"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Screenshot-2023-10-07-174249.png?fit=981%2C568&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Screenshot-2023-10-07-174249.png?fit=981%2C568&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Screenshot-2023-10-07-174249.png?fit=981%2C568&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Screenshot-2023-10-07-174249.png?fit=981%2C568&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":279642,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279642","url_meta":{"origin":280752,"position":5},"title":"Sunak Blinks","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Late yesterday someone leaked Rishi Sunak\u2019s plans to water down the UK\u2019s Net Zero measures to the BBC. He was not, everyone was at pains to note, discarding the overall 2050 target. The leaked changes were all about softening and delaying the pain.","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-604.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-604.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-604.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-604.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-604.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280752","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=280752"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280752\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":280760,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/280752\/revisions\/280760"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/280758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=280752"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=280752"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=280752"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}