{"id":280046,"date":"2023-09-23T13:23:26","date_gmt":"2023-09-23T11:23:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=280046"},"modified":"2023-09-23T13:23:29","modified_gmt":"2023-09-23T11:23:29","slug":"arctic-ice-recovery-starts-sept-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=280046","title":{"rendered":"Arctic Ice Recovery Starts Sept.\u00a02023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The animation above shows the minimum daily extent for 2023 occurred on September 25.\u00a0 In the next six days ~450k km2 of ice extent was added (nearly half a Wadham). The Arctic ice extent yesterday was 4.53M km2 approaching the 17 year average for the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The graph for September shows the first two weeks 2023 was well below the average and tracking with 2007. After hitting bottom day 258, a sharp recovery lifted extents close to average and much higher than 2007.  (SII  has not yet posted a value for day 264).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that typically September ends the month slightly higher than it begins, though 2023 is already matching its Sept. 1 value.\u00a0 If this year\u2019s ice growth continued at the same rate of losses during the first two weeks of September (50k per day), the extent would reach\u00a0 ~5M km2 at month end.\u00a0 That would result in a 2023 September monthly average of 4.5M km2.\u00a0 Such extent would be close to the median prediction, somewhat lower than 2022, but much higher than 2007 or 2020, and 800k km2 higher than 2012 (the year of the great August Cyclone.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The table for day 264 shows how the ice extent is distributed across the Arctic regions, in comparison to 17 year average and 2007.<\/span>
Region2023264264 Average2023-Ave.20072642023-2007<\/span>\u00a0(0) Northern_Hemisphere45308624603044\u00a0-72183\u00a04129308401554\u00a0\u00a0(1) Beaufort_Sea353539514036\u00a0-160497\u00a0507235-153697\u00a0\u00a0(2) Chukchi_Sea135936167774\u00a0-31839\u00a030316105620\u00a0\u00a0(3) East_Siberian_Sea48471262691\u00a0-214220\u00a031148160\u00a0\u00a0(4) Laptev_Sea381662127644\u00a0254018\u00a0223595158067\u00a0\u00a0(5) Kara_Sea4398934853\u00a09136\u00a02795016038\u00a0\u00a0(6) Barents_Sea239414654\u00a0-12260\u00a04851-2457\u00a0\u00a0(7) Greenland_Sea273632202253\u00a071379\u00a0336388-62756\u00a0\u00a0(8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence6685334768\u00a032085\u00a03173135122\u00a0\u00a0(9) Canadian_Archipelago177101302976\u00a0-125875\u00a0237555-60454\u00a0\u00a0(10) Hudson_Bay04119\u00a0-4119\u00a02270-2270\u00a0\u00a0(11) Central_Arctic30461452936249\u00a0109896\u00a02725832320313\u00a0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Region<\/strong><\/td>2023264<\/strong><\/td>264 Average<\/strong><\/td>2023-Ave.<\/strong><\/td>2007264<\/strong><\/td>2023-2007<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere<\/td>4530862<\/td>4603044 <\/td>-72183 <\/td>4129308<\/td>401554 <\/td><\/tr>
 (1) Beaufort_Sea<\/td>353539<\/td>514036 <\/td>-160497 <\/td>507235<\/td>-153697 <\/td><\/tr>
 (2) Chukchi_Sea<\/td>135936<\/td>167774 <\/td>-31839 <\/td>30316<\/td>105620 <\/td><\/tr>
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea<\/td>48471<\/td>262691 <\/td>-214220 <\/td>311<\/td>48160 <\/td><\/tr>
 (4) Laptev_Sea<\/td>381662<\/td>127644 <\/td>254018 <\/td>223595<\/td>158067 <\/td><\/tr>
 (5) Kara_Sea<\/td>43989<\/td>34853 <\/td>9136 <\/td>27950<\/td>16038 <\/td><\/tr>
 (6) Barents_Sea<\/td>2394<\/td>14654 <\/td>-12260 <\/td>4851<\/td>-2457 <\/td><\/tr>
 (7) Greenland_Sea<\/td>273632<\/td>202253 <\/td>71379 <\/td>336388<\/td>-62756 <\/td><\/tr>
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence<\/td>66853<\/td>34768 <\/td>32085 <\/td>31731<\/td>35122 <\/td><\/tr>
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago<\/td>177101<\/td>302976 <\/td>-125875 <\/td>237555<\/td>-60454 <\/td><\/tr>
 (10) Hudson_Bay<\/td>0<\/td>4119 <\/td>-4119 <\/td>2270<\/td>-2270 <\/td><\/tr>
 (11) Central_Arctic<\/td>3046145<\/td>2936249 <\/td>109896 <\/td>2725832<\/td>320313 <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The table shows the main deficits are in Beaufort, East Siberian seas and CAA.\u00a0 Offsetting surpluses are in Laptev, Greenland and Central Arctic seas. The total deficit on this day is 72k km2 or 1.6%.\u00a0 Note that 2007 did not add more ice as September ended.<\/p><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth\u2019s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents and snow cover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/span><\/p><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Note that typically September ends the month slightly higher than it begins, though 2023 is already matching its Sept. 1 value.\u00a0 If this year\u2019s ice growth continued at the same rate of losses during the first two weeks of September (50k per day), the extent would reach\u00a0 ~5M km2 at month end.\u00a0 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":280054,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818233,691819671,691822895,691822449],"class_list":{"0":"post-280046","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-691818233","9":"tag-arctic-ice","10":"tag-recovery","11":"tag-september","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00image-694-1024x640-1.webp?fit=1024%2C640&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1aQS","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":282685,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282685","url_meta":{"origin":280046,"position":0},"title":"2023 September Arctic Outlook and Results Not\u00a0Scary","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz The graph above shows the monthly averages for September Arctic ice extents including 2023 compared to previous years back to 2007.\u00a0 This year is slightly below the 17 year average of 4.63M km2;\u00a0 MASIE shows 4.43M and SII shows 4.37.\u00a0 For comparison the 2007 September\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Artic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Artic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=artic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282822,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282822","url_meta":{"origin":280046,"position":1},"title":"October 2023 Arctic Ice Flash\u00a0Freezing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"All climate models and doomed predictions of Ice - Free Arctic had been wrong. From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz The animation shows the rapid refreezing of Arctic ice from September 30 to yesterday October 9.\u00a0 Despite much ado about September minimums, in fact the ice recovers quickly from its annual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":293386,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=293386","url_meta":{"origin":280046,"position":2},"title":"Fear Not for Arctic Ice New Year\u00a02024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The month of December 2023 shows Hudson Bay (lower right) starting with some western shore ice and ending 92% ice covered, adding in that basin ~800k km2. 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