{"id":279961,"date":"2023-09-22T20:20:15","date_gmt":"2023-09-22T18:20:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279961"},"modified":"2023-09-22T20:20:18","modified_gmt":"2023-09-22T18:20:18","slug":"new-study-earth-will-cool-by-1c-over-the-next-decades-due-to-the-upcoming-grand-solar-minimum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279961","title":{"rendered":"New Study: Earth Will Cool By 1\u00b0C Over The Next Decades Due To The Upcoming Grand Solar Minimum"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0<\/em>22. September 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cThe first modern GSM1 [Grand Solar Minimum] occurs in 2020 \u2013 2053 with the cycle amplitudes reduction to 80% in cycle 25, to 30% in cycle 26 and to 70% in cycle 27 from the maximum amplitude of cycle 24.\u201d \u2212 Zharkova et al., 2023<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Per a new study<\/a><\/strong>, Earth\u2019s Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) has increased by about 1 to 1.5 W\/m\u00b2 from its depths in 1700 to its \u201cmaximum amplitude\u201d in cycle 24 (2020). This resulted in a global temperature increase of about 1.5\u00b0C during this span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[T]he monthly TSI variations (case a) show the increase of TSI by about 1 \u2013 1.3 W\/m\u00b2 in 2020 compared to 1700. This TSI increase found from the S-E distance ephemeris is close to the magnitude of 1 \u2013 1.5 W\/m\u00b2 reported from the current TSI observations.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But over the next 30 years (2020-2053) Earth will experience a period of significantly reduced solar activity and a consequent \u201cmini ice age\u201d climate that is \u201csimilar to the Maunder Minimum\u201d (1645-1715 CE) that characterized the much-colder-than-today Little Ice Age period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Temperatures will be reduced by about 1\u00b0C during the next few decades; Earth will then be only 0.5\u00b0C warmer than it was in 1700.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBecause solar irradiance and the terrestrial temperature already increased since the MM [Maunder Minimum] as is clearly recorded from the terrestrial temperature variations, the terrestrial temperature during the first modern GSM1 is expected to drop by about 1.0\u02daC to become just 0.5\u00b0C higher than it was in 1700.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Image Source:\u00a0Zharkova et al., 2023<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the study, no anthropogenic or carbon dioxide concentration contribution to terrestrial temperature change is mentioned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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