{"id":279162,"date":"2023-09-17T17:25:10","date_gmt":"2023-09-17T15:25:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279162"},"modified":"2023-09-17T17:25:13","modified_gmt":"2023-09-17T15:25:13","slug":"new-paper-reveals-classic-logical-fallacy-in-ipcc-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279162","title":{"rendered":"New Paper Reveals Classic Logical Fallacy In IPCC\u00a0Report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Tallbloke’s Talkshop<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

September 16, 2023 by\u00a0oldbrew<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The alarmist media bought it at the time, which may well have been the idea.<\/em>
\u2013 \u2013 \u2013
A new paper<\/a> from the Global Warming Policy Foundation reveals that the IPCC\u2019s 2013 report contained a remarkable logical fallacy, says Climate Change Dispatch<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The author, Professor Norman Fenton, shows that the authors of the Summary for Policymakers claimed, with 95% certainty, that more than half of the warming observed since 1950 had been caused by man.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But as Professor Fenton explains, their logic in reaching this conclusion was fatally flawed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGiven the observed temperature increase, and the output from their computer simulations of the climate system, the IPCC rejected the idea that less than half the warming was man-made. They said there was less than a 5% chance that this was true.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut they then turned this around and concluded that there was a 95% chance that more than half of observed warming was man-made.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is an example of what is known as the\u00a0Prosecutor\u2019s Fallacy<\/a>, in which the probability of a hypothesis given certain evidence is mistakenly taken to be the same as the probability of the evidence given the hypothesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n