{"id":278438,"date":"2023-09-12T14:47:32","date_gmt":"2023-09-12T12:47:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278438"},"modified":"2023-09-12T14:47:36","modified_gmt":"2023-09-12T12:47:36","slug":"history-shows-todays-ocean-at-cool-end-of-range","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278438","title":{"rendered":"History Shows Today\u2019s Ocean at Cool End of\u00a0Range"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"278448\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=278448\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0892344-cool-ocean-backgrounds-1920x1080-for-android.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1920,1080\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;unknown&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Nature Landscapes Sunset Cool Ocean Excelent Fun Beautiful Desktop Backgrounds&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1490078390&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;Copyright: unknown, 2017&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Nature Landscapes Sunset Cool Ocean Excelent Fun Beautiful Desktop Backgrounds&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Nature Landscapes Sunset Cool Ocean Excelent Fun Beautiful Desktop Backgrounds\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Nature Landscapes Sunset Cool Ocean Excelent Fun Beautiful Desktop Backgrounds&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0892344-cool-ocean-backgrounds-1920x1080-for-android.jpg?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0892344-cool-ocean-backgrounds-1920x1080-for-android.jpg?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-278448\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0892344-cool-ocean-backgrounds-1920x1080-for-android.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0892344-cool-ocean-backgrounds-1920x1080-for-android.jpg?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0892344-cool-ocean-backgrounds-1920x1080-for-android.jpg?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0892344-cool-ocean-backgrounds-1920x1080-for-android.jpg?resize=1536%2C864&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0892344-cool-ocean-backgrounds-1920x1080-for-android.jpg?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0892344-cool-ocean-backgrounds-1920x1080-for-android.jpg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0892344-cool-ocean-backgrounds-1920x1080-for-android.jpg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Nature Landscapes Sunset Cool Ocean Excelent Fun Beautiful Desktop Backgrounds<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"http:\/\/rclutz.com\/\">Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.com\/author\/ronaldrc\/\">Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"670\" data-attachment-id=\"278440\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=278440\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-371.png?fit=1000%2C927&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,927\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-371\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-371.png?fit=723%2C670&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-371.png?resize=723%2C670&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-278440\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-371.png?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-371.png?resize=300%2C278&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-371.png?resize=768%2C712&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You may have heard claims recently that the ocean is now \u201cboiling\u201d.&nbsp; Fortunately, a world expert in ocean heat uptake provides a deep dive into oceanic temperature history, thereby putting that fear to rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Geoffrey Gebbie of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution has published an highly informative study<a href=\"https:\/\/www.annualreviews.org\/doi\/full\/10.1146\/annurev-marine-010419-010844\">&nbsp;<strong>Combining Modern and Paleoceanographic Perspectives on Ocean Heat Uptake<\/strong><\/a>&nbsp;in Annual Review of Marine Science (2021).&nbsp; H\/T Kenneth Richard.&nbsp; Below are the main findings, along with some excerpts in italics with my bolds, explaining some oceanography for the rest of us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">The large climatic shifts that started with the melting of the great ice sheets have<br>involved significant ocean heat uptake that was sustained over centuries and millennia,<br>and\u00a0modern-ocean heat content changes are small by comparison.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Monitoring Earth\u2019s energy imbalance requires monitoring changes in the heat content of the ocean<\/strong>. Recent observational estimates indicate that&nbsp;<strong>ocean heat uptake is accelerating in the twenty-first century.<\/strong>&nbsp;Examination of&nbsp;<strong>estimates of ocean heat uptake<\/strong>&nbsp;over the industrial era, the Common Era of the last 2,000 years, and the period&nbsp;<strong>since the Last Glacial Maximum, 20,000 years ago, permits a wide perspective on modern-day warming rates<\/strong>. In addition, this longer-term focus illustrates how the&nbsp;<strong>dynamics of the deep ocean and the cryosphere were active in the past and are still active today.<\/strong>&nbsp;The large climatic shifts that started with the melting of the great ice sheets have involved significant ocean&nbsp;<strong>heat uptake that was sustained over centuries and millennia, and modern-ocean heat content changes are small by comparison.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em><strong>Objective<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This review seeks to&nbsp;<strong>put the most recent ocean heat uptake estimates of 0.5\u20130.7 W m\u22122 into the context of longer (multidecadal to millennial) timescales.<\/strong>&nbsp;Such timescales put a wider perspective on present-day heat uptake. In addition, the dynamics of these longer timescales may still have some expression today. This research direction leads to the long temperature<strong>&nbsp;time series of paleoceanographic proxies that predate the instrumental record<\/strong>. Ocean heat uptake over the last deglaciation (\u223c20,000\u201310,000 years ago) and the Common Era (previous two millennia) will serve as examples to explore the longer-timescale dynamics of ocean heat uptake.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em><strong>Common Era Evolution of Mean Ocean Temperature<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The Ocean2k global-mean SST compilation is derived from&nbsp;<strong>57 marine proxy records that, in aggregate, show a statistically significant cooling trend from 700 to 1700 CE<\/strong>&nbsp;over the MCA\u2013LIA transition (Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age). The data compilation contains a time series of 200-year averages that have been nondimensionalized. Here, we dimensionalize the values with the recommended values of McGregor et al. (2015) to obtain temperature anomalies, and the inferred&nbsp;<strong>global-mean surface cooling over the MCA\u2013LIA transition is near the high end of the expected 0.4\u20130.6\u00b0C range<\/strong>&nbsp;(Figure 4a).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"566\" height=\"1024\" data-attachment-id=\"278441\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=278441\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-372.png?fit=2315%2C4186&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"2315,4186\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-372\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-372.png?fit=566%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-372.png?resize=566%2C1024&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-278441\" style=\"width:760px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-372.png?resize=566%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 566w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-372.png?resize=166%2C300&amp;ssl=1 166w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-372.png?resize=768%2C1389&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-372.png?resize=849%2C1536&amp;ssl=1 849w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-372.png?resize=1133%2C2048&amp;ssl=1 1133w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-372.png?resize=1200%2C2170&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-372.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-372.png?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 566px) 100vw, 566px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em><strong>Figure 4\u2002 The Common Era.<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>(a)<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>The evolution of Ocean2k SST<\/strong>\u00a0(blue circles, with \u03c3\/2 error bars) and mean ocean temperature, , as inferred from noble-gas measurements (red circles, with \u03c3\/2 error bars), the Gebbie &amp; Huybers (2019) Common Era inversion (red line), and a power-law estimate (black line, with 2\u03c3 error shown in gray), referenced to global-mean SST in 1870. (b,c)\u00a0<strong>Average ocean heat uptake over a running 50-year interval (panel b) and a 500-year interval (panel c)<\/strong>\u00a0plotted from the Gebbie &amp; Huybers (2019) inversion (red line) and a power-law estimate (black line, with 1\u03c3 error shown in gray). Heat uptake is expressed in terms of an equivalent planetary energy imbalance. Abbreviation: SST, sea-surface temperature.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>One realization of the Common Era was produced by an inversion that attempted to&nbsp;<strong>reconstruct the three-dimensional evolution of oceanic temperature anomalies over the last 2,000 years<\/strong>&nbsp;(Gebbie &amp; Huybers 2019). The inversion fits an empirical ocean circulation model to modern-day tracer observations, historical temperature observations from the HMS Challenger expedition of 1872\u20131876 (Murray 1895), and the global-mean Ocean2k SST. The resulting ocean temperature evolution is&nbsp;<strong>dominated by the propagation of surface climate anomalies from the MCA and LIA into the subsurface ocean<\/strong>, where the propagation is&nbsp;<strong>coherent for several centuries<\/strong>&nbsp;(red line in Figure 4a). Although the Gebbie &amp; Huybers (2019) inversion was not constrained with oceanic power laws, the resulting mean ocean temperature is consistent with a power-law estimate over the Common Era.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Early-twenty-first-century SST may already be warmer than MCA SST, but it is<br>less likely that modern mean ocean temperature has surpassed MCA values.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>From the Gebbie &amp; Huybers (2019) inversion, it was inferred that the<strong>&nbsp;MCA ocean stored 1,000 ZJ more than the ocean of the year 2000<\/strong>, and that the \u223c500 ZJ of heat&nbsp;<strong>uptake during the modern warming era is just one-third of what is required to reach MCA levels.<\/strong>&nbsp;Amplification of the&nbsp;<strong>high-latitude SST<\/strong>&nbsp;signal relative to the global mean can&nbsp;<strong>produce a greater MCA\u2013LIA mean ocean cooling,<\/strong>&nbsp;which explains the greater MCA heat content relative to the present day. When considering the range of Common Era scenarios consistent with a power law, however, some cases are admitted where the MCA and the present day have similar oceanic heat content.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><em><strong>Deep-Ocean Heat Uptake During Modern Warming<\/strong><\/em><\/h5>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"530\" data-attachment-id=\"278442\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=278442\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-373.png?fit=2581%2C1890&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"2581,1890\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-373\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-373.png?fit=723%2C530&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-373.png?resize=723%2C530&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-278442\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-373.png?resize=1024%2C750&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-373.png?resize=300%2C220&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-373.png?resize=768%2C562&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-373.png?resize=1536%2C1125&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-373.png?resize=2048%2C1500&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-373.png?resize=1200%2C879&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-373.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-373.png?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figure 6\u2002 Ocean heat uptake below 2,000-m depth, in terms of a planetary energy imbalance, for 50-year averages given by Zanna et al. (2019) (blue line), Gebbie &amp; Huybers (2019) (red line), and the power-law estimate from this review (black line, with 2\u03c3 error in gray). An observational estimate (purple, with 2\u03c3 error bar) for 1990\u20132010 is also included (Purkey &amp; Johnson 2010).<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The confidence in upper-ocean heat content during the modern warming era starkly contrasts with the remaining uncertainties in heat content below 2,000-m depth (Figure 6). Observational estimates have indicated a deep-ocean heat uptake of 68 \u00b1 61 mW m\u22122 (2\u03c3) when differencing hydrographic sections between 1990 and 2010 (Purkey &amp; Johnson 2010, Desbruy\u00e8res et al. 2017). Estimation of deep-ocean heat uptake over the entire instrumental era relies to a greater extent on circulation models.<strong>&nbsp;Simulations of modern warming<\/strong>&nbsp;that are initialized from equilibrium in 1870&nbsp;<strong>suggest that heat penetrates downward<\/strong>&nbsp;(Gregory 2000) and that&nbsp;<strong>average deep-ocean heat uptake is small over 50-year time intervals<\/strong>&nbsp;(Zanna et al. 2019). These estimates would not capture ongoing trends from the earlier Common Era, if any existed.&nbsp;<strong>An inversion that accounts for the LIA found a deep-ocean heat loss of 80 mW m\u22122 early in the modern warming era<\/strong>&nbsp;(Gebbie &amp; Huybers 2019), and our power-law estimate suggests that an even&nbsp;<strong>greater cooling is possible, although the uncertainties are large<\/strong>. These discrepancies highlight the ongoing effect that Common Era variability could play in the modern-day ocean. Unfortunately,&nbsp;<strong>recent observations<\/strong>&nbsp;do not appear to be sufficient to distinguish between these scenarios, as they&nbsp;<strong>all suggest a weak deep-ocean heat uptake in the early twenty-first century.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Deep-ocean cooling could exist as the result of<br>disequilibrium between the upper and deep ocean.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Oceanic disequilibrium exists at a\u00a0<strong>range of spatial and temporal scales<\/strong>, from local, short-term variability to longer-term changes that are anticipated to generally have greater spatial extent. Oceanic disequilibrium has been anticipated\u00a0<strong>as a result<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>of<\/strong>\u00a0the 1815 Tambora (Stenchikov et al. 2009) and 1883 Krakatoa (Gleckler et al. 2006)<strong>\u00a0Simulations of modern warming and their lingering effects on energy imbalance.<\/strong>\u00a0More generally, ocean disequilibrium can result from the\u00a0<strong>differing adjustment times of the interior ocean to surface forcing<\/strong>, where the deep-ocean response<strong>\u00a0may take longer than 1,000 years<\/strong>\u00a0(e.g., Wunsch &amp; Heimbach 2008). Accordingly, some influence of changes in surface climate over the last millennium is potentially present today.\u00a0<strong>The most isolated waters of the mid-depth Pacific, for example, should still be adjusting to the MCA\u2013LIA transition<\/strong>. In this scenario, these deep waters are cooling, but they are anomalously warm due to the residual influence of the MCA.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The degree to which<strong>\u00a0the ocean\u2019s long memory affects today\u2019s ocean<\/strong>\u00a0is uncertain due to difficulties in integrating state-of-the-art circulation models over the entire Common Era. An accurate assessment may also require a model that can skillfully predict ocean circulation changes in both the past and the future. The climate history of the Common Era should also be better constrained by recovering additional observations, such as historical subsurface temperature observations and paleoceanographic data. Proper inference of climate sensitivity depends on the<strong>\u00a0past oceanic heat uptake,<\/strong>\u00a0which this review suggests<strong>\u00a0is tied to the long timescale of deep-ocean dynamics.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"699\" height=\"685\" data-attachment-id=\"278445\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=278445\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-374.png?fit=699%2C685&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"699,685\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-374\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-374.png?fit=699%2C685&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-374.png?resize=699%2C685&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-278445\" style=\"width:760px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-374.png?w=699&amp;ssl=1 699w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-374.png?resize=300%2C294&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-374.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 699px) 100vw, 699px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Do notice the scale on the left axis. As though we can measure the whole ocean (71% of earth surface) to 0.05 C. It\u2019s a formula converting zettajoules to temp change.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You may have heard claims recently that the ocean is now \u201cboiling\u201d.\u00a0 Fortunately, a world expert in ocean heat uptake provides a deep dive into oceanic temperature history, thereby putting that fear to rest.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":278448,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819823,691822534,691822532,691822533],"class_list":["post-278438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-last-glacial-maximum","tag-ocean-heat","tag-oceanic-temperature-anomalies","tag-simulations-of-modern-warming","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0892344-cool-ocean-backgrounds-1920x1080-for-android.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1aqW","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":262018,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262018","url_meta":{"origin":278438,"position":0},"title":"\u2018Boiling Oceans\u2019 Alarm Sounded by Media \u2013 But No Mention that Total Ocean Heat Has Risen Just 0.03% in 125 Years","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/13\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The \u2018boiling oceans\u2019 trope is very popular these days in climate alarmists circles, not least because so many other scare stories around corals, polar ice and global warming are having to be retired.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarm\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarm","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarm"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0W101BoilingSea.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0W101BoilingSea.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0W101BoilingSea.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0W101BoilingSea.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0W101BoilingSea.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":272523,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272523","url_meta":{"origin":278438,"position":1},"title":"Why the Sun, Not CO2, Heats the Oceans Revisiting the Debate: Does Greenhouse Back-radiation Warm the Oceans?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"So, I will ignore the click bait news media's fear mongering that our oceans are \"on the boil\" due to rising CO2. There is simply no scientific proof to support such dishonest narratives. And I will sleep well. There is no climate crisis.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate crisis\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate crisis","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-crisis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-365.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-365.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-365.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-365.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-365.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":278079,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278079","url_meta":{"origin":278438,"position":2},"title":"How one Bad Published Conclusion resulted in false beliefs that CO2 warms the oceans!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"To counteract the undeniable fact that CO2 infrared only penetrates a few microns into the ocean surface, and then is immediately radiated away creating a cool skin surface layer, climate alarmists always refer to a horribly biased conclusion in the 2018 Wong & Minnett paper (hereafter W&M) The Response of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0F5hYlo3aMAAunaK.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0F5hYlo3aMAAunaK.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0F5hYlo3aMAAunaK.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0F5hYlo3aMAAunaK.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0F5hYlo3aMAAunaK.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":418689,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418689","url_meta":{"origin":278438,"position":3},"title":"Measuring Climate Change Without a Ruler","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/26\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The central empirical claim of modern climate science is that the Earth system is gaining energy, and that this gain is sufficiently well measured to justify strong conclusions about long-term warming.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQM9h3oaLnI-bQP2i2fGE3PFcl5lj5RBa2LjO_sU1_nO2DrerVg7sOiyQmizJqSQn-ttvOygYEYpL8SIGiwXukr7VUP4rVHnfS7eEpJz4dXPBfivUF_M0qwX691A7g9u-jzY187XynrMnmpDZEVPip4yWuRpPA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQM9h3oaLnI-bQP2i2fGE3PFcl5lj5RBa2LjO_sU1_nO2DrerVg7sOiyQmizJqSQn-ttvOygYEYpL8SIGiwXukr7VUP4rVHnfS7eEpJz4dXPBfivUF_M0qwX691A7g9u-jzY187XynrMnmpDZEVPip4yWuRpPA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQM9h3oaLnI-bQP2i2fGE3PFcl5lj5RBa2LjO_sU1_nO2DrerVg7sOiyQmizJqSQn-ttvOygYEYpL8SIGiwXukr7VUP4rVHnfS7eEpJz4dXPBfivUF_M0qwX691A7g9u-jzY187XynrMnmpDZEVPip4yWuRpPA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQM9h3oaLnI-bQP2i2fGE3PFcl5lj5RBa2LjO_sU1_nO2DrerVg7sOiyQmizJqSQn-ttvOygYEYpL8SIGiwXukr7VUP4rVHnfS7eEpJz4dXPBfivUF_M0qwX691A7g9u-jzY187XynrMnmpDZEVPip4yWuRpPA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQM9h3oaLnI-bQP2i2fGE3PFcl5lj5RBa2LjO_sU1_nO2DrerVg7sOiyQmizJqSQn-ttvOygYEYpL8SIGiwXukr7VUP4rVHnfS7eEpJz4dXPBfivUF_M0qwX691A7g9u-jzY187XynrMnmpDZEVPip4yWuRpPA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":286752,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286752","url_meta":{"origin":278438,"position":4},"title":"Solving the Climate Puzzle: The Sun\u2019s Surprising Role","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate change is the most important scientific issue of our time, catalyzing a profound societal shift based on our perceived understanding of it. While many books explain what we already know about climate change, this book explores what we admit we do not understand about it (the known unknowns). In\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Ocean\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Ocean","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-ocean"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Screenshot-2023-11-05-211833.png?fit=730%2C816&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Screenshot-2023-11-05-211833.png?fit=730%2C816&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Screenshot-2023-11-05-211833.png?fit=730%2C816&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/00Screenshot-2023-11-05-211833.png?fit=730%2C816&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":275674,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275674","url_meta":{"origin":278438,"position":5},"title":"Climate alarmists DENY the science of the world\u2019s top ocean scientists!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/26\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A team of top expert oceanographers from Harvard and MIT, published the attached graph in the paper Liang (2015) Vertical Redistribution of Oceanic Heat Content, illustrating how oceans absorb heat in the tropics, and due to ocean circulation, release that heat as ocean currents move that heat towards the poles.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Alarmists\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Alarmists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0F4aMxz7aUAATLDO.jpeg?fit=1022%2C500&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0F4aMxz7aUAATLDO.jpeg?fit=1022%2C500&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0F4aMxz7aUAATLDO.jpeg?fit=1022%2C500&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0F4aMxz7aUAATLDO.jpeg?fit=1022%2C500&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/278438","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=278438"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/278438\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":278450,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/278438\/revisions\/278450"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/278448"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=278438"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=278438"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=278438"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}