{"id":278030,"date":"2023-09-09T20:03:19","date_gmt":"2023-09-09T18:03:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278030"},"modified":"2023-09-09T20:03:22","modified_gmt":"2023-09-09T18:03:22","slug":"september-outlook-arctic-ice-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278030","title":{"rendered":"September Outlook Arctic Ice\u00a02023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2023: August Report from Sea Ice Prediction Network<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The August median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.60 million square kilometers with interquartile values of 4.35 and 4.80 million square kilometers, while individual forecasts range from 2.88 to 5.47 million square kilometers. We note that the lowest two forecasts predict a new record September sea-ice extent value (current record is September 2012, with a sea-ice extent of 3.57 million square kilometers), but these forecasts are outliers relative to the other contributions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are predictions for the September 2023 monthly average ice extent as reported by NOAA Sea Ice Index (SII). This post provides a look at the 2023 Year To Date (YTD) based on monthly averages comparing MASIE and SII datasets. (17 year average is 2006 to 2022 inclusive).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The graph puts 2023 into recent historical perspective. Note how 2023 was slightly below the 17-year average for the first 5 months, then recovered to match average in May and has maintained or exceeded average through August. The outlier 2012 provided the highest March maximum as well as the lowest September minimum, coinciding with the Great Arctic Cyclone that year.  2007 began the period with the lowest minimum except for 2012.  SII 2023 was running below MASIE except for May\/Juneand is currently just below MASIE 2007 and 2012.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The table below provides the numbers for comparisons (all are M km2)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly<\/strong><\/td>MASIE 2023<\/strong><\/td>SII 2023<\/strong><\/td>MASIE -SII<\/strong><\/td>MASIE 2023-17 YR AVE<\/strong><\/td>SII 2023-17 YR AVE<\/strong><\/td>MASIE 2023-2007<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Jan<\/td>13.579<\/td>13.347<\/td>0.232<\/td>-0.207<\/td>-0.250<\/td>-0.183<\/td><\/tr>
Feb<\/td>14.481<\/td>14.177<\/td>0.304<\/td>-0.207<\/td>-0.292<\/td>-0.171<\/td><\/tr>
Mar<\/td>14.655<\/td>14.440<\/td>0.215<\/td>-0.212<\/td>-0.248<\/td>0.032<\/td><\/tr>
Apr<\/td>13.979<\/td>13.992<\/td>-0.013<\/td>-0.120<\/td>-0.025<\/td>0.283<\/td><\/tr>
May<\/td>11.866<\/td>12.159<\/td>-0.293<\/td>-0.742<\/td>-0.492<\/td>-0.561<\/td><\/tr>
June<\/td>11.044<\/td>10.963<\/td>0.081<\/td>0.242<\/td>0.099<\/td>0.218<\/td><\/tr>
July<\/td>8.431<\/td>8.183<\/td>0.248<\/td>0.152<\/td>0.150<\/td>0.439<\/td><\/tr>
Aug<\/td>5.825<\/td>5.561<\/td>0.264<\/td>-0.062<\/td>-0.083<\/td>0.241<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The first two columns are the 2023 YTD shown by MASIE and SII, with the MASIE surpluses in column three.  Column four shows MASIE 2023 compared to MASIE 17 year average, while column five shows SII 2023 compared to SII 17 year average.  YTD August both MASIE and SII are very slightly below average. The last column shows MASIE 2017 holding an August surplus of 241k km2 over 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The experts involved in SIPN are expecting SII 2023 September to be higher than 2007 and somewhat lower than 2022.  The way MASIE is going, this September looks to be nearly average unless some bad weather intervenes.  While the daily minimum for the year occurs mid September, ice extent on September 30 is typically slightly higher than on September 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Footnote:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some people unhappy with the higher amounts of ice extent shown by MASIE continue to claim that Sea Ice Index is the only dataset that can be used. This is false in fact and in logic. Why should anyone accept that the highest quality picture of ice day to day has no shelf life, that one year\u2019s charts can not be compared with another year? Researchers do this, including Walt Meier in charge of Sea Ice Index. That said, I understand his interest in directing people to use his product rather than one he does not control. As I have said before:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MASIE is rigorous, reliable, serves as calibration for satellite products, and continues the long and honorable tradition of naval ice charting using modern technologies. More on this at my post\u00a0Support MASIE Arctic Ice Dataset<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

MASIE: \u201chigh-resolution, accurate charts of ice conditions\u201d<\/span>Walt Meier, NSIDC, October 2015 article in Annals of Glaciology.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The experts involved in SIPN are expecting SII 2023 September to be higher than 2007 and somewhat lower than 2022. \u00a0The way MASIE is going, this September looks to be nearly average unless some bad weather intervenes.\u00a0 While the daily minimum for the year occurs mid September, ice extent on September 30 is typically slightly higher than on September 1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":278038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819671,691822448,691822451,691822450,691822449],"class_list":{"0":"post-278030","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-arctic-ice","9":"tag-arctic-ice-2023","10":"tag-masie","11":"tag-noaa-sea-ice-index-sii","12":"tag-september","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/010_9_14_upton_Antarctic_sea_ice_NASA__1050_788_s_c1_c_c.jpg?fit=1050%2C788&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1akm","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":342634,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342634","url_meta":{"origin":278030,"position":0},"title":"September Outlook Arctic Ice\u00a02024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The experts involved in SIPN are expecting SII 2024 September to be much lower than 2023 and 2022, based largely on the large deficits SII is showing in July and August. 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Then in June the gap reopened and in July the melting pace matched the average, abeit four days in advance of average. 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Plateau September Arctic Ice\u00a02024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Earlier observations showed that Arctic ice extents were low in the 1940s, grew thereafter up to a peak in 1977, before declining. That decline was gentle until 1996 which started a decade of multi-year ice loss through the Fram Strait. There was also a major earthquake under the north pole\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282685,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282685","url_meta":{"origin":278030,"position":5},"title":"2023 September Arctic Outlook and Results Not\u00a0Scary","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz The graph above shows the monthly averages for September Arctic ice extents including 2023 compared to previous years back to 2007.\u00a0 This year is slightly below the 17 year average of 4.63M km2;\u00a0 MASIE shows 4.43M and SII shows 4.37.\u00a0 For comparison the 2007 September\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Artic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Artic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=artic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/00Arctic-sea.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/278030","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=278030"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/278030\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":278040,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/278030\/revisions\/278040"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/278038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=278030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=278030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=278030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}