{"id":277265,"date":"2023-09-04T21:27:45","date_gmt":"2023-09-04T19:27:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=277265"},"modified":"2023-09-04T21:29:36","modified_gmt":"2023-09-04T19:29:36","slug":"renewable-fail-east-coast-aussie-states-are-failing-or-about-to-fail-energy-reliability-standards","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=277265","title":{"rendered":"Renewable Fail: East Coast Aussie States Are Failing or About to Fail Energy Reliability Standards"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by Eric Worrall<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

First published JoNova<\/a>; A just published Australian Energy Market Operator report highlights the urgent \u201copportunity\u201d for the provision of reliable electricity to Australia\u2019s East Coast grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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2023 Electricity Statement of Opportunities\u00a0August 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With up to 62% of its coal fleet now expected to close before 20331, Australia\u2019s NEM is perched on the edge of one of the largest transformations since the market was formed over 20 years ago. The scale of opportunity to meet an imminent and growing need for firm capacity, new forms of energy production, and significant consumer energy investments is unparalleled in Australia\u2019s energy history. This ESOO shows that imminent and urgent investment is needed to meet this opportunity, or the reliability of the NEM will be at risk.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this 2023 ESOO assessment:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When considering only energy supply infrastructure developments that meet AEMO\u2019s\u00a0commitment criteria2,\u00a0<\/em>AEMO forecasts larger reliability gaps\u00a0<\/strong>than were forecast in the February 2023\u00a0Update to 2022 Electricity Statement of Opportunities, and in some cases, larger than forecast in the 2022 ESOO. Over the next 10 years, in the 2023 ESOO Central scenario, reliability risks are forecast to be higher than the relevant reliability standard requires in:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

South Australia\u00a0<\/strong>in summer 2023-24 (against the Interim Reliability Measure [IRM] of 0.0006% unserved energy [USE]) and from 2028-29 (against the reliability standard of 0.002% USE).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Victoria\u00a0<\/strong>this coming summer and over the entire ESOO horizon against the IRM, and from 2026-27 against the reliability standard.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

New South Wales\u00a0<\/strong>from 2025-26 against the reliability standard.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Queensland\u00a0<\/strong>in 2029-30 and 2030-31 against the reliability standard.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once federal and state government programs, actionable transmission developments, and orchestration of forecast consumer energy resources (CER) are also considered,\u00a0<\/em>beyond the short term, reliability risks have the potential to be managed within relevant standards over most of the next 10-year horizon<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While these programs and developments have not yet progressed far enough to implementation to meet the strict criteria to be included in the ESOO Central outlook, federal and state governments have policies and frameworks to develop and implement delivery plans.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All jurisdictions have a range of policies that support the development of new capacity to replace retiring generators. Each policy must now prioritise delivering the transmission, and renewable energy and firming generation they target, ahead of announced closures. Just-in-time investment may not maintain suitable reliability, and delivering on the current development opportunities is now essential.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The impact of potential coal, gas and diesel fuel shortfalls has been identified as a material risk to the reliability of the NEM. In addition to the need for new generation, transmission and other solutions, the ongoing availability of coal, gas and distillate fuels, and effective management of their supply chains, will be critical to the reliability of the NEM.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These forecasts highlight the high value of solutions in which resources owned by consumers, such as residential electricity generation and storage devices, and increased demand flexibility, can help meet power system needs. With a high level of consumer participation and coordination of consumer energy assets and demand to help meet power system needs, the need for utility-scale solutions would be much lower.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more: [Page 3-4]\u00a0https:\/\/aemo.com.au\/-\/media\/files\/electricity\/nem\/planning_and_forecasting\/nem_esoo\/2023\/2023-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf?la=en&hash=D8CC2D9AC8D9F353194C9DD117095FB4<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n