{"id":276788,"date":"2023-09-01T22:57:49","date_gmt":"2023-09-01T20:57:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276788"},"modified":"2023-09-01T22:57:52","modified_gmt":"2023-09-01T20:57:52","slug":"koonins-climate-honesty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276788","title":{"rendered":"Koonin\u2019s Climate Honesty"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"325\" data-attachment-id=\"276822\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276822\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-48.png?fit=1551%2C696&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1551,696\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-48\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-48.png?fit=723%2C325&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-48.png?resize=723%2C325&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276822\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-48.png?resize=1024%2C460&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-48.png?resize=300%2C135&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-48.png?resize=768%2C345&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-48.png?resize=1536%2C689&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-48.png?resize=1200%2C538&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-48.png?w=1551&amp;ssl=1 1551w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-48.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"http:\/\/rclutz.com\/\">Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">by\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.com\/author\/ronaldrc\/\">Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/l90FpjPGLBE?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hot or Not: Steven Koonin Questions Conventional Climate Science and Methodology| Uncommon Knowledge<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Steven Koonin shared his honest and wise perspective on global warming\/climate change in the interview above.&nbsp; For those who prefer reading, an excerpted transcript from the closed captions provides the highlights in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;Welcome to uncommon knowledge; I\u2019m&nbsp;<strong>Peter Robinson<\/strong>. Now a professor at New York University and a fellow at the Hoover Institution,<strong>&nbsp;Steven Koonin<\/strong>&nbsp;received a Bachelor of Science degree at Caltech and a doctorate in physics at MIT during a career in which he&nbsp;<strong>published more than 200 peer-reviewed scientific papers and a textbook on computational physics<\/strong>. Dr Koonin rose to become Provost of Caltech. In 2009 President Obama appointed him&nbsp;<strong>under Secretary of science at the Department of Energy<\/strong>&nbsp;a position Dr Koonin held for some two and a half years. During that time he found himself shocked by the misuse of climate science in politics and the press. In 2021 Dr Koonin published&nbsp;<strong>Unsettled. What climate science tells us, what it doesn\u2019t and why it matters.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>In Unsettled you write of a<strong>&nbsp;2014 workshop for the American physical society<\/strong>, which means it\u2019s you and a bunch of other people who I cannot even begin to follow. Serious professional scientists such as you and several colleagues were asked<strong>&nbsp;to subject current climate science to a stress test<\/strong>: to push it, to prod, to test it to see how good it was. From Unsettled I\u2019m quoting you now Steve:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201c I\u2019m a scientist; I work to understand the world through measurements and observations. I came away from the workshop not only not only surprised but shaken by the realization that climate science was far less mature than I had supposed.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Let\u2019s start with the end of that. What had you supposed?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>\u00a0Well I had\u00a0<strong>supposed that humans were warming the globe<\/strong>; carbon dioxide was accumulating in the atmosphere\u00a0<strong>causing all kinds of trouble<\/strong>, melting ice caps, warming oceans and so on. And the\u00a0<strong>data didn\u2019t support<\/strong>\u00a0a lot of that. And the\u00a0<strong>projections<\/strong>\u00a0of what would happen in the future relied\u00a0<strong>on models that were, let\u2019s say, shaky at best.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"462\" height=\"350\" data-attachment-id=\"276792\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276792\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-34.png?fit=462%2C350&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"462,350\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-34\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-34.png?fit=462%2C350&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-34.png?resize=462%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276792\" style=\"width:760px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-34.png?w=462&amp;ssl=1 462w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-34.png?resize=300%2C227&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 462px) 100vw, 462px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;All right. Former Senator John Kerry is now President Biden\u2019s special Envoy for climate. Let me quote from&nbsp;<strong>John Kerry<\/strong>&nbsp;in a&nbsp;<strong>2021 address to the UN Security Council:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cNet zero emissions by 2050 or earlier is the only way that science tells us we can limit this planet\u2019s warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Why is that so crucial? Because overwhelming evidence tells us that anything more will have catastrophic implications. We are Marching forward in what is tantamount to a mutual suicide pact.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Overwhelming evidence science tells us. What\u2019s wrong with that?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;Well you should&nbsp;<strong>look at the actual science which<\/strong>&nbsp;I suspect that Ambassador&nbsp;<strong>Kerry has not done.<\/strong>&nbsp;The U.N puts out assessment reports every five or six years. Those are by the&nbsp;<strong>IPCC<\/strong>&nbsp;the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change and are meant to survey, assess and summarize the state of our knowledge about the climate. The most recent one came out about a year ago in 2022, the previous one in 2014 or so.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Those reports are<strong>&nbsp;massive to read<\/strong>; the latest one is three thousand pages and it took 300 scientists a couple years to write. And you really&nbsp;<strong>need to be a scientist to understand them<\/strong>. I have a background in theoretical physics, I can understand this stuff. But&nbsp;<strong>still it took me a couple years to really understand<\/strong>&nbsp;what goes on. Now Ambassador<strong>&nbsp;Kerry and other politicians certainly have not done that.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Likely he\u2019s getting his&nbsp;<strong>information from the summary for policy makers<\/strong>, or more likely for&nbsp;<strong>an even further boiled down version.<\/strong>&nbsp;And as you boil down the good assessment into the summary, into more condensed versions, there\u2019s&nbsp;<strong>plenty of room for mischief<\/strong>. That Mischief is evident when you compare what comes out the end of that game of telephone with what the actual science really is.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>\u00a0All right: what we know and what we don\u2019t. Let\u2019s start with what we know. I\u2019m quoting you again Steve from Unsettled\u00a0 \u201cNot everything you\u2019ve heard about climate science is wrong.\u201d In particular\u00a0<strong>you grant in this book two of the central premises<\/strong>\u00a0or conclusions of climate science that the Press is always telling us about. here\u2019s one and again I\u2019m going to quote you:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u201cSurely we can all agree that the globe has gotten warmer<br>over the last several decades.\u201d<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;No debunking.&nbsp;<strong>In fact it\u2019s gotten warmer over the last four centuries<\/strong>&nbsp;Now that\u2019s a<strong>&nbsp;different assertion<\/strong>, but it\u2019s&nbsp;<strong>equally supported by the assessment reports.<\/strong>&nbsp; We\u2019ll have to come back to that because the time scale is important. It\u2019s one thing to say this about in my own lifetime the the the climate of the the surface of this planet, and it\u2019s an entirely different thing to say beginning&nbsp;<strong>150 years before this nation was founded temperatures began to rise.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;Yes, it\u2019s a different statement but it\u2019s equally true and has some bearing on the warming that we\u2019ve seen over the last century. Here\u2019s the premise that you do grant again I\u2019m going to quote Unsettled<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cThere is no question that our emission of greenhouse gases in particular CO2 is exerting a warming influence on the planet.\u201d We\u2019re pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, CO2 is a greenhouse gas it must be having some effect of course.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Absolutely that\u2019s as far as you\u2019re willing to go.&nbsp; &nbsp;But then you say so actually those are pretty two benign premises that you grant: the&nbsp;<strong>Earth has been warming<\/strong>&nbsp;and it\u2019s been warming&nbsp;<strong>for a long time. CO2 is a greenhouse gas<\/strong>&nbsp;and it must be having some effect it\u2019s coming from human activities and it\u2019scoming from Humanity, mostly fossil fuels. Now now&nbsp;<strong>on to what we don\u2019t know<\/strong>&nbsp;okay again from Unsettled<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cEven though&nbsp;<strong>human influences could have serious consequences<\/strong>&nbsp;for the climate,<strong>&nbsp;they are small<\/strong>&nbsp;in relation to the climate system as a whole. That&nbsp;<strong>sets a very high bar for projecting<\/strong>&nbsp;the consequences of human influences.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>That is&nbsp;<strong>so counter to the general understanding that informs the headlines,<\/strong>&nbsp;particularly this hot summer we\u2019ve had . So explain that.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>Human influences<\/strong>&nbsp;as described in the IPCC are&nbsp;<strong>a one percent effect on the radiation flow<\/strong>\u2013the flow of heat radiation and sunlight in the atmosphere. That means your<strong>&nbsp;understanding had better be at the one percent level or better<\/strong>&nbsp;if you\u2019re going to predict how the climate system is going to respond. And the one percent makes sense because the changes in temperature we\u2019re talking about are three degrees Kelvin right whereas the average temperature of the earth is about 300 degrees Kelvin.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>So human influences are a one percent effect on a complicated chaotic multi-scale system for which we have poor observations&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;You seem to you seem to quite relaxed about the original science<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;The underlying science is expressed in the data and expressed in&nbsp;<strong>the research literature<\/strong>&nbsp;the journals the research papers that people produce the conference proceedings and so on. The&nbsp;<strong>IPCC<\/strong>&nbsp;takes those and&nbsp;<strong>assesses and summarizes<\/strong>&nbsp;them and in general it does a pretty good job at that level. And there\u2019s not going to be much politics in that although they might quibble among themselves about adjectives and adverbs; this is extremely certain or this is unlikely or highly unlikely and so on. But&nbsp;<strong>by and large it\u2019s pretty good,<\/strong>&nbsp;this is done by fellow Professionals in a professional manner<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Now&nbsp;<strong>things begin to go wrong.<\/strong>&nbsp;The next step is because nobody who isn\u2019t deeply in the field is going to read all that stuff, so there is a formal process to create a&nbsp;<strong>summary for policy makers<\/strong>&nbsp;which is initially&nbsp;<strong>drafted by the governments<\/strong>&nbsp;not by the scientists. Well it\u2019s not of course all of them, there\u2019s some subcommittee to do the summary for policy makers and that gets drafted and passed by the scientists for comment. In the end it\u2019s the governments who have approved the summary for policy makers line by line and that\u2019s where the disconnect happens.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>For the&nbsp;<strong>disconnect<\/strong>&nbsp;I\u2019ll give you an example. Look at the most recent report and the summary for policy makers is talking about deaths from&nbsp;<strong>extreme heat incremental deaths<\/strong>&nbsp;and it says that you know extreme heat or heat waves have contributed to uh mortality okay and that\u2019s a true statement But they<strong>&nbsp;forgot to tell you<\/strong>&nbsp;that the&nbsp;<strong>warming<\/strong>&nbsp;of the planet&nbsp;<strong>decreases<\/strong>&nbsp;the incidence of&nbsp;<strong>extreme cold events<\/strong>. And since nine times as many people around the globe die from extreme cold than from extreme heat, the warming from the planet has actually&nbsp;<strong>cut<\/strong>&nbsp;the number of&nbsp;<strong>deaths from extreme temperatures by a lot.<\/strong>&nbsp;That\u2019s not in there at all.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">So the statement was completely factual, but factually incomplete<br>in a way meant to alarm, not to inform.\u00a0<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"542\" data-attachment-id=\"276795\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276795\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-35.png?fit=1024%2C768&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,768\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-35\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-35.png?fit=723%2C542&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-35.png?resize=723%2C542&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276795\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-35.png?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-35.png?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-35.png?resize=768%2C576&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-35.png?resize=800%2C600&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-35.png?resize=400%2C300&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-35.png?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>And then John Kerry stands up and gives a speech. Maybe he read the SPM I don\u2019t know or his staff read it and probably some of their talking points. And s<strong>o you get Kerry saying<\/strong>&nbsp;that, you get the Secretary General of the U.N&nbsp;<strong>Gutierrez saying, we\u2019re on a highway to climate hell<\/strong>&nbsp;with our foot on the accelerator. But they\u2019re Preposterous of course,&nbsp;<strong>even by the IPCC reports they\u2019re Preposterous<\/strong>.&nbsp; The&nbsp;<strong>climate scientists are negligent for not speaking up<\/strong>&nbsp;and saying that\u2019s not okay.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;Another one of the things going wrong you write about in a way that I have never seen anyone write about computer models.&nbsp;<strong>I have never seen anybody make computer models interesting.<\/strong>&nbsp;So congratulations Steve you did something special as far as I know in the entire Corpus of English language.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Here I\u2019m going to&nbsp;<strong>quote<\/strong>&nbsp;from a piece&nbsp;<strong>you<\/strong>&nbsp;published&nbsp;<strong>in the Wall Street Journal<\/strong>&nbsp;not long ago:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u201cProjections of future climate and weather events rely on models<br>demonstrably unfit for the purpose.\u201d<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"540\" height=\"512\" data-attachment-id=\"276797\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276797\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-36.png?fit=540%2C512&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"540,512\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-36\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-36.png?fit=540%2C512&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-36.png?resize=540%2C512&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276797\" style=\"width:762px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-36.png?w=540&amp;ssl=1 540w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-36.png?resize=300%2C284&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 540px) 100vw, 540px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;Well, to make a projection of future climate you need to build this&nbsp;<strong>big complicated computer model<\/strong>&nbsp;which is really one of the grand computational challenges of all time.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This is not something I wrote a textbook in 1980s when the first PCS came out about how to do modeling on computers with physics. I do know what I\u2019m talking about okay. And then you have to feed into the model&nbsp;<strong>what you think future emissions are going to be<\/strong>&nbsp;and the IPCC has five or six&nbsp;<strong>different scenarios,<\/strong>&nbsp;High emissions ,low emissions. If you take a particular scenario and feed it&nbsp;<strong>into the roughly 50 different models<\/strong>&nbsp;that exist that are developed by groups around the world<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So Caltech has a model, Harvard has a model, yeah Oxford. But the Chinese have several models, the Russians and so on. When you feed the same scenario into those different models you get a\u00a0<strong>range of answers<\/strong>. The range is\u00a0<strong>as big as the change you\u2019re trying to describe<\/strong>\u00a0itself okay, And we can go into the reasons why there is that uncertainty, and in the latest generation of models about 40 percent of them were deemed to be too sensitive to be of much use.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"530\" data-attachment-id=\"276799\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276799\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-37.png?fit=753%2C552&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"753,552\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-37\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-37.png?fit=723%2C530&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-37.png?resize=723%2C530&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276799\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-37.png?w=753&amp;ssl=1 753w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-37.png?resize=300%2C220&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Too sensitive meaning<\/strong>&nbsp;that when you add the carbon dioxide in and the&nbsp;<strong>temperature goes up too fast<\/strong>&nbsp;compared to what we\u2019ve seen already. So that\u2019s really disheartening the world\u2019s best models are trying as hard as they can, and<strong>&nbsp;they get it very wrong at least 40 percent of the time.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This is not only my assessment you can look at papers published by Tim Palmer and Bjorn Stevens who are serious modelers in the consensus. And their own phrases are that&nbsp;<strong>these models are not fit for purpose. at least at the regional or more detailed Global level .<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;Quoting Unsettled again, and this is&nbsp;<strong>one of the most astonishing passages<\/strong>&nbsp;in the book.&nbsp; Writing about the effects of the increases in computing power over the years:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cHaving better tools and information to work with should make the models more accurate<br>and&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/em><em>more in line with each other.&nbsp; This has not happened.<br>The spread in results among different computer models is increasing.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This one you\u2019re going to have to explain to me.&nbsp; As our modeling power, as&nbsp;<strong>our processing power increases<\/strong>, we should be closing in on&nbsp;<strong>reliable conclusions<\/strong>&nbsp;and yet they seem to be&nbsp;<strong>receding<\/strong>&nbsp;faster than we can approach them. if I got that correct that\u2019s right how can that be<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;Because&nbsp; as the&nbsp;<strong>models become more sophisticated<\/strong>&nbsp; that means either you made the&nbsp;<strong>boxes<\/strong>&nbsp;a little bit&nbsp;<strong>smaller<\/strong>&nbsp;in the model the grid boxes&nbsp;<strong>so there are more<\/strong>&nbsp;of them&nbsp;<strong>or you made more sophisticated your description.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The whole globe is sort of divided into&nbsp;<strong>10 million<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>slabs really.&nbsp; T<\/strong>he&nbsp;<strong>average size<\/strong>&nbsp;of a grid box in the current generation is&nbsp;<strong>100 kilometers<\/strong>&nbsp;60 miles okay and within that 60 miles there\u2019s a lot that goes on that we&nbsp;<strong>can\u2019t describe explicitly<\/strong>&nbsp;in the computer because&nbsp;<strong>clouds<\/strong>&nbsp;are maybe&nbsp;<strong>five kilometers big<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>and Rain happens here and not there<\/strong>&nbsp;within the grid box we can\u2019t describe all that.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>One day we\u2019ll be able to , but not really very soon and let me explain why. The current grid boxes are 100 kilometers so you might say well&nbsp;<strong>why not make them 10<\/strong>. well suddenly the&nbsp;<strong>number of boxes has gone up by a hundred<\/strong>&nbsp;okay so you need a hundred times more powerful computer but it\u2019s worse than that because the<strong>&nbsp;time steps have to be smaller also<\/strong>&nbsp;because things shouldn\u2019t move more than a grid box in one time step and so the&nbsp;<strong>processing power actually goes up as the cube of the grid size<\/strong>&nbsp;and so if you want<strong>&nbsp;to go from 100 kilometers to 10 kilometers<\/strong>&nbsp;that\u2019s a factor of 10. the&nbsp;<strong>processing power required goes<\/strong>&nbsp;up by a factor of<strong>&nbsp;a thousand<\/strong>&nbsp;and it\u2019s going to be a long time before we got a computer that\u2019s a thousand times more powerful than what we have.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;You and I are speaking<strong>&nbsp;in the middle of August I just started collecting headlines<\/strong>&nbsp;thinking I\u2019ll just read this to Steve and see what he says about it.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>CBS News this past May \u201cScientists say climate change is&nbsp;<strong>making hurricanes worse.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Koonin in Unsettled:\u00a0 \u201cHurricanes and tornadoes show\u00a0<strong>no changes attributable to human influences.\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"356\" data-attachment-id=\"276800\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276800\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00isaac-and-co2.png?fit=1178%2C580&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1178,580\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00isaac-and-co2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00isaac-and-co2.png?fit=723%2C356&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00isaac-and-co2.png?resize=723%2C356&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00isaac-and-co2.png?resize=1024%2C504&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00isaac-and-co2.png?resize=300%2C148&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00isaac-and-co2.png?resize=768%2C378&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00isaac-and-co2.png?w=1178&amp;ssl=1 1178w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>[The graph above shows exhibit 2a from Truchelut and Staehling overlaid with the record of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.\u00a0 From NOAA combining Mauna Loa with earlier datasets.]<\/em><br><em>To determine Integrated Storm Activity Annually over the Continental U.S. (ISAAC) from 1900 through 2017, we summed this landfall ACE spatially over the entire continental U.S. and temporally over each hour of each hurricane season. We used the same methodology to calculate integrated annual landfall ACE for five additional geographic subsets of the continental U.S.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Well what do you think you\u2019re doing taking on CBS?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;Well you know&nbsp;<strong>what science does CBS know?&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;The media gets their&nbsp;<strong>information from reporters who have no or very little scientific training<\/strong>. (PR: you mean you didn\u2019t graduate people from Caltech who went to work there?)&nbsp; Probably one or so and they do a good job. But they have&nbsp;<strong>reporters on a climate beat who have to produce stories the more dramatic the better:&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;If it bleeds It leads. and so you get that kind of stuff I quote<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>When I say something about hurricanes, I quote right from the&nbsp;<strong>IPCC reports<\/strong>&nbsp;and it&nbsp;<strong>doesn\u2019t say that at all.<\/strong>&nbsp;Actually the most recent report said it based on a paper which was subsequently corrected<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>Floods<\/strong>&nbsp;here\u2019s a 2020 headline this is from an article or press release published by the UN environment program quote climate change this is the U.N now not the IPCC but it is a<strong>&nbsp;U.N agency:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>UNEP:&nbsp;<strong>\u201cClimate change is making record-breaking floods.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Steve Koonin in Unsettled:\u00a0\u00a0<strong>\u201cWe don\u2019t know whether floods globally are increasing, decreasing or doing nothing at all.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"282\" data-attachment-id=\"276802\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276802\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00us-wet-dry-2022-w-co2.png?fit=1285%2C501&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1285,501\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00us-wet-dry-2022-w-co2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00us-wet-dry-2022-w-co2.png?fit=723%2C282&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00us-wet-dry-2022-w-co2.png?resize=723%2C282&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276802\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00us-wet-dry-2022-w-co2.png?resize=1024%2C399&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00us-wet-dry-2022-w-co2.png?resize=300%2C117&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00us-wet-dry-2022-w-co2.png?resize=768%2C299&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00us-wet-dry-2022-w-co2.png?resize=1200%2C468&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00us-wet-dry-2022-w-co2.png?w=1285&amp;ssl=1 1285w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;I would say the U.N needs to be consistent and and&nbsp;<strong>they should check their press release against the IPCC reports before they say anything.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>When I wrote unsettled I tried very hard to<strong>&nbsp;stick with the gold standard<\/strong>&nbsp;which was<strong>&nbsp;the IPCC report at the time or the subsequent research literature<\/strong>&nbsp;I had available to me when I wrote the book only the fifth assessment report which came out in 2014 as we\u2019ve discussed.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The&nbsp;<strong>sixth assessment report<\/strong>&nbsp;came out about a year ago and I\u2019m proud to say there\u2019s essentially&nbsp;<strong>nothing<\/strong>&nbsp;in there now that&nbsp;<strong>needs to be changed in the paperback edition.<\/strong>&nbsp;I will do an update of course but the paperback edition is not going to be totally rewritten.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp; All right&nbsp;<strong>agriculture.<\/strong>&nbsp;Here\u2019s a 2019 headline<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>New York Times:&nbsp;<strong>\u201cClimate change threatens world\u2019s food supply<\/strong>&nbsp;United Nations warns.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Steve Koonin in Unsettled:\u00a0<strong>\u00a0\u201cAgricultural yields have surged<\/strong>\u00a0during the past Century even as the globe has warmed.\u00a0 And<strong>\u00a0projected price impacts<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>from future human induced climate changes<\/strong>\u00a0through 2050\u00a0<strong>should hardly be noticeable<\/strong>\u00a0among ordinary market dynamics.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"423\" data-attachment-id=\"276804\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276804\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-38.png?fit=999%2C584&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"999,584\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-38\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-38.png?fit=723%2C423&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-38.png?resize=723%2C423&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276804\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-38.png?w=999&amp;ssl=1 999w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-38.png?resize=300%2C175&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-38.png?resize=768%2C449&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK: It\u2019s<\/strong>&nbsp;not what I said but<strong>&nbsp;what the IPCC said<\/strong>. Take current media and&nbsp;<strong>almost any climate story, I can write a very effective counter-<\/strong>\u2013 it\u2019s like shooting fish in a barrel. I\u2019ve got I\u2019ve actually gotten to the point where I say oh no not another one do I have to do that too. So&nbsp;<strong>this is endemic to a media that is ill-informed and has an agenda to set.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">The agenda is to promote alarm and induce governments to decarbonize.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>I think that probably the<strong>&nbsp;primary agenda is to get clicks and eyeballs<\/strong>&nbsp;but and you know there are organizations it\u2019s wonderful there\u2019s an&nbsp;<strong>organization called Covering Climate Now<\/strong>&nbsp;which is a non-profit membership organization it\u2019s got the guardian it\u2019s got various other media NPR I believe and their<strong>&nbsp;mission is to promote the narrative<\/strong>. They will&nbsp;<strong>not allow anything to be broadcast or written that is counter to the narrative<\/strong>&nbsp;The Narrative is: We\u2019ve already broken the climate.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;These are&nbsp;<strong>headlines in July of 2023<\/strong>. This is last month here as you and I tape this.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>New York Times on July 6th: \u201d Heat records are broken around the globe as&nbsp;<strong>Earth warms fast from north to south<\/strong>. Temperatures are surging as&nbsp;<strong>greenhouse gases combined with the effects of El Nino.<\/strong>\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>New York Times on July 18: \u201cHeat waves grip three continents as climate change warms Earth.&nbsp; Across North America, Europe and Asia&nbsp;<strong>hundreds of millions endured blistering conditions<\/strong>.&nbsp; A U.S official called it&nbsp;<strong>a threat to all humankind.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Wall Street Journal on July 25th:&nbsp; \u201c<strong>July heat waves nearly impossible without climate change<\/strong>&nbsp;study says.&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>Record temperatures have been fueled by decades of fossil fuel emissions.\u201d&nbsp;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>New York Times on July 27th; \u201cThis looks like<strong>&nbsp;Earth\u2019s warmest month, hotter ones appear to be in store.<\/strong>&nbsp;July is on track to break all records for any month scientists say,&nbsp; as&nbsp;<strong>the planet enters an extended period of exceptional warmth.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Unsettled came out in April 2021 so we will forgive you not knowing in April 2021 what would happen last month July of 2023.&nbsp; But now July 2023 is in the record books,&nbsp; and doesn\u2019t it prove that climate science is settled?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;That statement together with all those headlines&nbsp;<strong>confuse weather and climate.<\/strong>&nbsp;So weather is what happens every day or maybe even every season;&nbsp;<strong>climate<\/strong>&nbsp;the official definition&nbsp;<strong>is a multi-decade average of weather properties<\/strong>. That\u2019s what the&nbsp;<strong>IPCC<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>and<\/strong>&nbsp;another U.N agency, the World Meteorological organization&nbsp;<strong>(WMO) says.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"275\" data-attachment-id=\"276806\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276806\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895%E2%80%932020-co%C2%B2-1644941822.6237.png?fit=3174%2C1206&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"3174,1206\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895\u20132020-co\u00b2-1644941822.6237\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895%E2%80%932020-co%C2%B2-1644941822.6237.png?fit=723%2C275&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895%E2%80%932020-co%C2%B2-1644941822.6237.png?resize=723%2C275&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276806\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895%E2%80%932020-co%C2%B2-1644941822.6237.png?resize=1024%2C389&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895%E2%80%932020-co%C2%B2-1644941822.6237.png?resize=300%2C114&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895%E2%80%932020-co%C2%B2-1644941822.6237.png?resize=768%2C292&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895%E2%80%932020-co%C2%B2-1644941822.6237.png?resize=1536%2C584&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895%E2%80%932020-co%C2%B2-1644941822.6237.png?resize=2048%2C778&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895%E2%80%932020-co%C2%B2-1644941822.6237.png?resize=1200%2C456&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895%E2%80%932020-co%C2%B2-1644941822.6237.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00U.S.-Annual-Heat-Wave-Index-1895%E2%80%932020-co%C2%B2-1644941822.6237.png?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>We have&nbsp;<strong>satellites that are continually monitoring the temperature<\/strong>&nbsp;of the atmosphere and they report out every month what the monthly temperature is or more precisely what the monthly temperature anomaly is namely<strong>&nbsp;how much warmer or colder is it than the average<\/strong>&nbsp;what would have been expected for that month.<strong>&nbsp; We have data that go back to about 1979<\/strong>. so we have good monthly measures of the global temperature on the lower atmosphere for 40 something years.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>You see month-to-month variations of course but a&nbsp;<strong>long-term Trend that\u2019s going up<\/strong>&nbsp;no question about it. I I won\u2019t get the number exactly right, but it\u2019s going up at about 0.13 degrees per decade all right. That\u2019s&nbsp;<strong>some combination of natural variability and greenhouse gases.<\/strong>&nbsp;Human influences are more general and then every couple years you see a sharp Spike going up, and that\u2019s El Nino.&nbsp; &nbsp;It\u2019s weather, and so it goes up and then goes back down.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So there\u2019s a long-term Trend which is greenhouse gases and natural variability and then there\u2019s this natural Spike every once in a while, but an eruption goes off you see something, El Ninos happen you see something.&nbsp; And so on the last month&nbsp;<strong>in July there was another Spike in the anomaly the anomalies about as large as we\u2019ve ever seen but not unprecedented okay<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">The real question is why did it Spike so much right?<br>Nothing to do with CO2<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>CO2 is kind of the well human influences a kind of the base on which this uh phenomenon occurs so because the the CO2&nbsp;<strong>even if you stipulate that CO2 is causing some large proportion of this warming, &nbsp;it\u2019s a slow steady process<\/strong>&nbsp;you would<strong>&nbsp;not expect<\/strong>&nbsp;to see&nbsp;<strong>spikes<\/strong>&nbsp;you wouldn\u2019t expect to see&nbsp;<strong>sudden step functions absolutely not<\/strong>&nbsp;all right and there are various reasons&nbsp;<strong>people hypothesize we don\u2019t know yet why we\u2019ve seen the spike in the last month<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;You better take just a moment to explain what is El Nino<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;El Nino is a phenomenon in the climate system that happens once&nbsp;<strong>every four or five years heat builds up in the equatorial Pacific to the west<\/strong>&nbsp;of Indonesia and so on and then&nbsp;<strong>when enough of it builds up it kind of surges across the Pacific<\/strong>&nbsp;and changes the currents and the winds uh as it surges toward South America all right it was discovered in the 19th century and it kind of<strong>&nbsp;well understood at this point 19th century means that phenomenon has nothing to do with CO2.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Now people talk about changes in that phenomena as a result of CO2 but&nbsp;<strong>it\u2019s there in the climate system already and when it happens it influences weather all over the world<\/strong>&nbsp;we feel it we feel it it gets Rainier in Southern California for example and so on so we had it we we have been in&nbsp;<strong>the opposite of an El Nino, a La Nina for the last 3 years<\/strong>, part of the reason people think the West Coast has been in drought and it is Shifting.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>It has now&nbsp;<strong>shifted in the last months to an El Nino condition<\/strong>&nbsp;that warms the globe and is thought&nbsp;<strong>to contribute to this Spike<\/strong>&nbsp;we have seen. But there are&nbsp;<strong>other contributions as well<\/strong>&nbsp;one of the most surprising ones is that back in January of 22 an enormous&nbsp;<strong>underwater volcano went off in Tonga<\/strong>&nbsp;and it put up a lot of water vapor into the upper atmosphere. It increased the upper atmosphere of water vapor by about 10 percent, and that\u2019s a warming effect and it may be that that is contributing to why the spike is so high. so you\u2019re let me go<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;Back to&nbsp;<strong>New York<\/strong>&nbsp;since you spent you spent July there. I happened to visit&nbsp;<strong>in July<\/strong>&nbsp;and we have&nbsp;<strong>Canadian wildfires<\/strong>&nbsp;and the<strong>&nbsp;Press telling us<\/strong>&nbsp;that the wildfires are&nbsp;<strong>because of climate change<\/strong>. And for&nbsp;<\/em><em>the first time anybody I know could remember<strong>&nbsp;smoke is so heavy<\/strong>&nbsp;and it gets blown into New York And this sky feels&nbsp;<strong>as though there\u2019s a solar eclipse<\/strong>&nbsp;taking place for three days it\u2019s so dark in New York<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Meanwhile&nbsp;<strong>New York is hot it\u2019s really hot<\/strong>&nbsp;and we\u2019re reading&nbsp;<strong>reports that Europe is hot<\/strong>&nbsp;and there\u2019s sweltering even in Madrid, a culture built around heat in the midday where they take siestas.&nbsp;<strong>Even in Madrid<\/strong>&nbsp;they don\u2019t quite know how to handle this heat and it\u2019s perfectly normal for people to say wait a minute this is getting scary. It feels for the first time as though&nbsp;<strong>the Earth is threatening, it\u2019s unsafe in New York of all places<\/strong>&nbsp;where you didn\u2019t have to worry about earthquakes. But the other thing you didn\u2019t have to worry about was breathing the air, but suddenly you can\u2019t breathe&nbsp;<strong>the air it feels uncomfortable it\u2019s scary. And you\u2019re saying and your response to that is what?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;So we have<strong>&nbsp;two responses. First we have a very short memory for weather.<\/strong>&nbsp;Go back in the archives or the newspapers and you can read from even the&nbsp;<strong>19th century<\/strong>&nbsp;on the&nbsp;<strong>East Coast descriptions of so-called yellow days<\/strong>&nbsp;when the atmosphere was clouded by smoke from Canadian fires. So look at the historical record first and&nbsp;<strong>if it happened before human influences were significant you got a much higher bar to clear to say that\u2019s CO2.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Secondly, there\u2019s a lot of variability<\/strong>. Here in&nbsp;<strong>California<\/strong>&nbsp;we had&nbsp;<strong>two decades of drought and the governor was screaming New Normal<\/strong>. New Normal. And then what happened<strong>&nbsp;last year: historical record torrential rains<\/strong>&nbsp;because people forgot about the 1860 some odd event where the Central Valley was under many feet of water.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR: So climate is not weather and the weather can really fool you.<\/strong>&nbsp;all right Steve some last questions.&nbsp; From Unsettled:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cHumans have been successfully adapting to changes in climate for millennia.<\/em><br><em>Today\u2019s society can adapt to climate changes whether they are<\/em><br><em>natural phenomena or the result of human influences.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So&nbsp;<strong>you draw the distinction between adapting to climate change on the one hand and the John Kerry approach on the other which is trying to stop climate change<\/strong>. Explain that distinction and why you favor one over the other<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>\u00a0Okay.<strong>\u00a0I would take issue though with your description of Kerry\u2019s approach<\/strong>. It\u2019s not trying to stop climate change,<strong>\u00a0it\u2019s to reduce human influences on the climate.<\/strong>\u00a0Because the climate will keep changing even if we reduce emissions carry the night okay then I would even dream all right go ahead.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"605\" height=\"465\" data-attachment-id=\"276808\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276808\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-39.png?fit=605%2C465&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"605,465\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-39\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-39.png?fit=605%2C465&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-39.png?resize=605%2C465&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276808\" style=\"width:762px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-39.png?w=605&amp;ssl=1 605w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-39.png?resize=300%2C231&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 605px) 100vw, 605px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Let me talk about&nbsp;<strong>adaptation<\/strong>&nbsp;a little bit and give you some examples that are probably not well known, at least it wasn\u2019t really known to me until I looked into it. If you go back to 1900 and you look&nbsp;<strong>from 1900 till today the globe warmed by about 1.3 degrees Celsius<\/strong>. That\u2019s This Global temperature record that&nbsp;<strong>everybody more or less agrees<\/strong>&nbsp;upon . And before we get to the consequences, the other statement is that the&nbsp;<strong>IPCC projects about the same amount of warming over the next hundred years.<\/strong>&nbsp;You might ask what\u2019s going to happen over the next hundred years as that warming happens.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">We can look at the past to get some sense of how we might fare,<br>okay not perfect, but a good indication.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Since 1900 until now:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u2666&nbsp; The global population has gone up by a factor of five, we\u2019re now 8 billion people.<\/em><br><em><strong>\u2666&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/strong>The average lifespan or life expectancy went from 32 years to 73 years<\/em><br><em>\u2666&nbsp; The GDP per capita in constant dollars went up by a factor of seven<\/em><br><em>\u2666&nbsp; The literacy rate went up by a factor of four<\/em><br><em>\u2666&nbsp; &nbsp;The nutrition etc etc<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"558\" data-attachment-id=\"276810\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276810\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-40.png?fit=1000%2C772&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1000,772\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-40\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-40.png?fit=723%2C558&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-40.png?resize=723%2C558&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276810\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-40.png?w=1000&amp;ssl=1 1000w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-40.png?resize=300%2C232&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-40.png?resize=768%2C593&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The greatest flourishing of human well-being ever as the globe warmed by 1.3 degrees. And the kicker of course is that the death rate from extreme weather events fell by a factor of 50, due to better prediction, better resilience of infrastructure, and so on. So to think that another 1.3 or 1.4 whatever degrees over the next century is going to significantly derail that beggars belief.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"350\" data-attachment-id=\"276811\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276811\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-41.png?fit=999%2C484&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"999,484\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-41\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-41.png?fit=723%2C350&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-41.png?resize=723%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276811\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-41.png?w=999&amp;ssl=1 999w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-41.png?resize=300%2C145&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-41.png?resize=768%2C372&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-41.png?resize=930%2C450&amp;ssl=1 930w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Okay so not an existential threat perhaps some drag on the economy a little bit; the IPCC says not very much at all. So&nbsp;<strong>the notion that the world is going to end unless we stop Greenhouse Gas Energy is just nonsense.<\/strong>&nbsp;This is not a mutual suicide pact, not at all.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;On August 16th of last year a year ago President&nbsp;<strong>Biden signed legislation that included some 360 billion of climate spending<\/strong>, at least the Biden Administration claimed it was climate spending over the next decade. President Biden:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>\u201cThe American people won and the climate deniers lost<\/strong>&nbsp;and the inflation reduction act takes<strong>&nbsp;the most aggressive action to combat climate change ever.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Curiously enough, they called it the inflation reduction act while it seems to have prompted inflation rather than reduced it. Good legislation or not?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;It would be if it focused on useful adaptation, but it\u2019s aimed at mitigation by and large, namely reducing emissions. I think there are parts of it that are&nbsp;<strong>good in<\/strong>&nbsp;particular<strong>&nbsp;the spur to innovate<\/strong>. New technologies are the only way we\u2019re going to reduce emissions if that is the goal. We&nbsp;<strong>need to develop Energy Technologies that are no more expensive than fossil fuels technologies<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;But our low emission or zero emission goals? Let\u2019s take that one. Because here I have the Provost of Caltech, let\u2019s ask&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>what tech what we can reasonably hope and what we cannot reasonably hope.<\/strong>&nbsp;Can we reasonably hope you and I are talking after 10 days after the internet went crazy with some claim of cold fusion, no it was room temperature superconductivity. Is this a problem we can crack?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>\u00a0 So\u00a0 I think it\u2019s going to be really difficult there is one existing solution and that\u2019s\u00a0<strong>nuclear power fission<\/strong>\u00a0right we know about Fusion separately Fission exists yes uh it can be done right; it\u2019s more expensive than other methods,\u00a0 because of the regulatory order and it\u2019s got a large lead time, but also because at least in the U.S we build every plant to a custom design.\u00a0 So one of the things<strong>\u00a0I helped catalyze<\/strong>\u00a0when I was in the department of energy was\u00a0<strong>small modular reactors.<\/strong>\u00a0 These are about a tenth the size of the big ones, you can build them in a factory put them on a flatbed truck and this is not a crazy dream. Venture money is going on and there are companies that are on the verge of putting out a test deployment of of commercially constructed power plants.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"491\" data-attachment-id=\"276813\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276813\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-42.png?fit=765%2C520&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"765,520\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-42\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-42.png?fit=723%2C491&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-42.png?resize=723%2C491&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276813\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-42.png?w=765&amp;ssl=1 765w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-42.png?resize=300%2C204&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So why isn\u2019t John Kerry going to one of these hot new startups and doing a photo shoot? I don\u2019t follow Ambassador okay, but you know the\u00a0<strong>nuclear<\/strong>\u00a0word that<strong>\u00a0is a political hot potato<\/strong>\u00a0in some quarters. Not to get too much into politics, but I think there is\u00a0<strong>a faction of the left wing that just sees that as anathema<\/strong>\u00a0and not a solution at all. Meanwhile the Chinese are doing it.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"615\" height=\"450\" data-attachment-id=\"276814\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276814\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-43.png?fit=615%2C450&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"615,450\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-43\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-43.png?fit=615%2C450&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-43.png?resize=615%2C450&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276814\" style=\"width:758px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-43.png?w=615&amp;ssl=1 615w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-43.png?resize=300%2C220&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 615px) 100vw, 615px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So I like the technology parts of the IRA&nbsp;<strong>I do not like the subsidies for wind and solar.<\/strong>&nbsp;One of the things you didn\u2019t mention was&nbsp;<strong>I was Chief scientist for BP the oil company for five years.<\/strong>&nbsp;So I learned the energy industry. I never had to make any money in it, but I helped<strong>&nbsp;to strategize and kind of systematize thinking f<\/strong>or them. So I know from the inside about subsidies to solar and wind. Everybody thinks that\u2019s a solution, but of course wind and solar are intermittent sources of electricity: solar obviously doesn\u2019t produce at night or when it\u2019s cloudy, wind does not produce when the wind doesn\u2019t blow. If you\u2019re going&nbsp;<strong>to build a grid that\u2019s entirely wind and solar you better have some way of filling in the times when they\u2019re not producing.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Now if it\u2019s only eight hours or 12 hours you\u2019re trying to fill in, not so hard you can build batteries and so on. But if\u00a0<strong>you need to fill in a couple weeks such as times in Europe, Texas and California when the wind has become still and the solar is clouded out.<\/strong>\u00a0So you need something else right and that might be\u00a0<strong>batteries<\/strong>\u00a0although I think that\u2019s\u00a0<strong>unlikely<\/strong>. Gas with carbon capture or nuclear is going to be at least as capable as the wind and solar and since the wind and solar feeds are the cheapest the backup system is going to be more expensive,\u00a0<strong>so you wind up running two parallel systems making electricity at least twice as expensive.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"263\" data-attachment-id=\"276816\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276816\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-44.png?fit=965%2C351&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"965,351\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-44\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-44.png?fit=723%2C263&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-44.png?resize=723%2C263&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276816\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-44.png?w=965&amp;ssl=1 965w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-44.png?resize=300%2C109&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-44.png?resize=768%2C279&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">So I say that wind and solar can be an ornament on the real electrical system<br>but they can never be the backbone of the system.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Let me explain\u00a0<strong>the biggest problem in trying to reduce emissions is<\/strong>\u00a0not the one and a half billion people in the developed world; it\u2019s the\u00a0<strong>six and a half billion people who don\u2019t have enough energy.<\/strong>\u00a0And you\u2019re telling them that because of<strong>\u00a0some vague distant threat<\/strong>\u00a0that we in the developed world are worried about, that\u00a0<strong>they\u2019re going to have to pay more for energy or get more less reliable sources.<\/strong>\u00a0They should be able to make their own choices about whether they\u2019re willing to tolerate whatever threat there might be from the climate versus having round-the-clock lighting, having adequate Refrigeration, having transportation and so on. Millions of people in India,\u00a0 six and a half billion people worldwide right absolutely they\u2019re energy starved.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"492\" data-attachment-id=\"276817\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276817\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-45.png?fit=919%2C625&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"919,625\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-45\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-45.png?fit=723%2C492&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-45.png?resize=723%2C492&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276817\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-45.png?w=919&amp;ssl=1 919w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-45.png?resize=300%2C204&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-45.png?resize=768%2C522&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Three billion people<\/strong>&nbsp;on the planet of the 8 billion&nbsp;<strong>use less electricity<\/strong>&nbsp;every year<strong>&nbsp;than the average U.S refrigerator.<\/strong>&nbsp;So first fix&nbsp;<strong>that problem<\/strong>, which&nbsp;<strong>is existential and immediate and solvable<\/strong>, and then we can talk about some vague climate thing that might happen 50 years from now.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">But scientists must tell the truth, absolutely completely lay it all out,<br>and we\u2019re not getting that out of the scientific establishment.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"554\" data-attachment-id=\"276819\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276819\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-46.png?fit=1200%2C919&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1200,919\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-46\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-46.png?fit=723%2C554&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-46.png?resize=723%2C554&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276819\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-46.png?resize=1024%2C784&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-46.png?resize=300%2C230&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-46.png?resize=768%2C588&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-46.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;Unsettled has been out for more than two years now<strong>&nbsp;how have your colleagues responded?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;Many colleagues&nbsp;<strong>who are not climate scientists say thanks<\/strong>&nbsp;for writing the book it gives me a framework to think about these things and points me to some of the problems that we\u2019re seeing in the popular discussion. I got&nbsp;<strong>some<\/strong>&nbsp;rather&nbsp;<strong>awful reviews from mainstream climate scientists<\/strong>&nbsp;which disappointed me. Not because they found anything wrong in the book, they didn\u2019t. But the quality of the discussion, the ad hominem attacks, the putting words in my mouth and so on, that wasn\u2019t so good.&nbsp; Their argument was, Steve Koonin you\u2019re one of us ; you shouldn\u2019t be saying this.<strong>&nbsp;It may be true but you shouldn\u2019t be saying it. Steve how could you?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>First of all&nbsp;<strong>I\u2019ve been involved in science advice in other aspects of public policy<\/strong>&nbsp;particularly National Defense together with some Stanford former colleagues now passed on. And I was taught that you&nbsp;<strong>tell the whole truth and you let the politicians make the value judgments<\/strong>&nbsp;and the cost Effectiveness trade-offs. My sense of that balance is no better than anybody else\u2019s, but I can bring to the table the scientific facts. If you trust democracy, you trust people to elect politicians who can over time make a mistake here, they\u2019ll make a mistake there.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>But\u00a0<strong>over time you trust them<\/strong>. Now there are\u00a0<strong>colleagues who say<\/strong>: No don\u2019t\u00a0<strong>tell them the truth we can\u2019t trust them to make the right decision.<\/strong>\u00a0That\u2019s fundamentally what\u2019s going on. I know scientists who know better than everybody else, and you know it\u2019s even worse because these are scientists in the developed world. And if you\u00a0<strong>ask the scientists in Nigeria or India<\/strong>\u00a0and so on, you get\u00a0<strong>a very different values calculus,<\/strong>\u00a0that the primary concern is getting enough energy for folks.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"325\" data-attachment-id=\"276821\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276821\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-47.png?fit=1551%2C696&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1551,696\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-47\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-47.png?fit=723%2C325&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-47.png?resize=723%2C325&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276821\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-47.png?resize=1024%2C460&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-47.png?resize=300%2C135&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-47.png?resize=768%2C345&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-47.png?resize=1536%2C689&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-47.png?resize=1200%2C538&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-47.png?w=1551&amp;ssl=1 1551w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-47.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;According to a&nbsp;<strong>Harris poll<\/strong>&nbsp;in January 2022 a little over a year year and a half ago now<strong>&nbsp;84% of teenagers<\/strong>&nbsp;in the United States&nbsp;<strong>agree<\/strong>&nbsp;with both of the two following statements. they agree with:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u2666&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>Climate change will impact everyone<\/strong>&nbsp;in my generation through&nbsp;<strong>Global political instability.<\/strong><\/em><br><em>\u2666&nbsp; If we don\u2019t address climate change today&nbsp;<strong>it will be too late for future Generations making some parts of the planet unlivable.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>John Kerry, Al Gore, Greta Thunberg and on and on, and countless voices warning that climate change represents a genuine danger to life on the planet. And now<strong>\u00a0millions of Young Americans are\u00a0really scared.<\/strong>\u00a0Surely this has some role to play in what we see the the suicidal ideation and the increasing unhappiness.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"626\" height=\"437\" data-attachment-id=\"276824\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276824\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-49.png?fit=626%2C437&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"626,437\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-49\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-49.png?fit=626%2C437&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-49.png?resize=626%2C437&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276824\" style=\"width:760px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-49.png?w=626&amp;ssl=1 626w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-49.png?resize=300%2C209&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 626px) 100vw, 626px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>&nbsp;I\u2019m sure there are all kinds of social factors but surely this is part of what\u2019s going on. There are<strong>&nbsp;two immoralities here. One is the immoral treatment of the developing World<\/strong>&nbsp;which we talked about.&nbsp;<strong>The other immorality is scaring the bejesus out of the younger generation<\/strong>. And it\u2019s doubly dangerous because it\u2019s&nbsp;<strong>mostly in the west and not in China or India.<\/strong>&nbsp;I\u2019ve tried. I go out and talk in universities and of course the audiences I talk to tend to be quantitative and factually driven. So the minds get opened up if the eyes get opened up.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>I think in the U.S the problem will eventually solve itself because the route we are headed down is starting to impact people\u2019s daily lives. Electricity is getting more expensive, you won\u2019t be able to buy an internal combustion car in 10 or 15 years. If you\u2019re here in California, people are going to say wait a second, as they already are in Europe, in UK , Germany, France. And&nbsp;<strong>I think there will be a falling down to Earth of all of this at some point and we will get more sensible.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>PR:<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>Let\u2019s say your audience now<\/strong>&nbsp;is not a colleague of yours but i<strong>s an 18 to 24 year old American pretty bright<\/strong>, maybe in college maybe not, but bright. Reads newspapers or at least reads them online. Speaking to that person speaking to an American kid or young adult: Do you need,&nbsp;<strong>do they need to be scared?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>SK:<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>No absolutely not. I would quote the 1900 to now flourishing as an example<\/strong>. And I would say, you\u00a0probably<strong>\u00a0believe that hurricanes are getting worse<\/strong>, and then\u00a0<strong>point them to the IPCC<\/strong>\u00a0line. And say you know\u00a0<strong>you were misinformed about that by the media,<\/strong>\u00a0don\u2019t you think that there are\u00a0<strong>other things about which you\u2019ve been misinformed.<\/strong>\u00a0You can read the book and find out many of them, and then go ask your climate friends\u00a0<strong>how come it says one thing in the IPCC report but you\u2019re telling me something else.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"564\" height=\"368\" data-attachment-id=\"276826\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=276826\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-50.png?fit=564%2C368&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"564,368\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-50\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-50.png?fit=564%2C368&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-50.png?resize=564%2C368&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-276826\" style=\"width:759px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-50.png?w=564&amp;ssl=1 564w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-50.png?resize=300%2C196&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 564px) 100vw, 564px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>But scientists must tell the truth, absolutely completely lay it all out,<br \/>\nand we\u2019re not getting that out of the scientific establishment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":276822,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818153,691818076,691818087,691818154,691822259],"class_list":{"0":"post-276788","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-co2","11":"tag-global-warming","12":"tag-net-zero","13":"tag-steven-koonin","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/image-48.png?fit=1551%2C696&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1a0k","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":188107,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=188107","url_meta":{"origin":276788,"position":0},"title":"Dessler on the Joe Rogan Experience\u2026Oy!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"And\u2026 https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=wattsupwiththat&dnt=true&embedId=twitter-widget-2&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1494103189456658435&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwattsupwiththat.com%2F2022%2F02%2F17%2Fdessler-on-the-joe-rogan-experience-oy%2F&sessionId=8ea038c3e8614281335221551bbab95519c4b536&siteScreenName=WattsUpWithThat&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px MasterResource has another excellent article on Dessler\u2019s behavior By Robert Bradley Jr. \u2014 February 17, 2022 [Andrew] Dessler said anyone arguing that the science is too uncertain isn\u2019t arguing from a legitimate position\u2026. \u201c[Koonin]\u2019s a climate flat earther.\u201d (Quoted in Benjamin Thorp,\u00a0October 18, 2021).\u201cDumb arguments\u201d is too harsh?\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-dessler.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":275562,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275562","url_meta":{"origin":276788,"position":1},"title":"Hot or Not: Steven Koonin Questions Conventional Climate Science and Methodology| Uncommon Knowledge","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"As Koonin explains in this interview, he was \u201cshaken by the realization that climate science was far less mature than I had supposed\u201d and that the \u201coverwhelming evidence\u201d of catastrophic implications of anthropogenic global warming wasn\u2019t so overwhelming after all.","rel":"","context":"In \"anthropogenic global warming\"","block_context":{"text":"anthropogenic global warming","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-global-warming"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0Screenshot-2023-08-25-192502.png?fit=962%2C560&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0Screenshot-2023-08-25-192502.png?fit=962%2C560&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0Screenshot-2023-08-25-192502.png?fit=962%2C560&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0Screenshot-2023-08-25-192502.png?fit=962%2C560&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":187455,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=187455","url_meta":{"origin":276788,"position":2},"title":"Leading Climate Skeptic Dr. Steve Koonin on The Joe Rogan Experience","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"You may have heard about the\u00a0controversy\u00a0surrounding Joe Rogan, Neil Young, and Spotify in the past couple of weeks. It didn\u2019t faze Rogan at all, and he\u2019s jumped from the frying pan and into the fire with a great interview with Steve Koonin, Ph.D. From the podcast description: Steven E. Koonin\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-rogan.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-rogan.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-rogan.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-rogan.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-rogan.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0koonin-rogan.png?resize=1400%2C800&ssl=1 4x"},"classes":[]},{"id":240272,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=240272","url_meta":{"origin":276788,"position":3},"title":"Unsettled: Climate and Science | Dr. Steven Koonin | EP 323","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Dr. Jordan B Peterson and Dr. Steven Koonin discuss the IPCC reports \u2013 the globally sourced research on climate change \u2013 and how policymakers take summaries of summaries from these to justify their green agenda, despite what the reports actually suggest.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/00Screenshot-2023-01-18-120325.png?fit=895%2C504&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/00Screenshot-2023-01-18-120325.png?fit=895%2C504&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/00Screenshot-2023-01-18-120325.png?fit=895%2C504&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/00Screenshot-2023-01-18-120325.png?fit=895%2C504&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":211124,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=211124","url_meta":{"origin":276788,"position":4},"title":"Koonin-Dessler Debate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"By Andy May Andrew Dessler and Steven Koonin will debate the resolution \u201cClimate science compels us to make large and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.\u201d Dessler will take the affirmative, and Koonin will take the negative. Dessler is a Professor of Atmospheric Science at Texas A&M University and Koonin\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-384.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-384.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-384.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-384.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-384.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":216841,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=216841","url_meta":{"origin":276788,"position":5},"title":"Andrew Dessler vs. Steven Koonin Debate Official Version Posted","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Does the world need to rapidly convert to using renewable energy to save the planet from global warming?","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-61.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-61.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-61.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-61.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=276788"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276788\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":276828,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276788\/revisions\/276828"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/276822"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=276788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=276788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=276788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}