{"id":276419,"date":"2023-08-30T20:51:25","date_gmt":"2023-08-30T18:51:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276419"},"modified":"2023-08-30T20:51:28","modified_gmt":"2023-08-30T18:51:28","slug":"w-hudson-bay-polar-bear-numbers-declined-27-in-2021-but-not-because-of-missing-ice-secret-paper","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276419","title":{"rendered":"W. Hudson Bay polar bear numbers declined 27% in 2021 but not because of missing ice: secret paper"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As will become apparent tomorrow, Western Hudson Bay polar bear numbers apparently declined 27% between 2017 and 2021 but not because of sea ice loss. This fact, gleaned from a secret government report leaked to the media, emerged just before Christmas last year and spread around the world.<\/a> I commented on it here<\/a> at the time.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

It will also be apparent tomorrow why that government report is still unavailable. Thursdays are when the big two science magazines publish their papers, which means associated news stores promoting preferred narratives are embargoed until then. Stay tuned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks to a less-than-newsworthy paper waiting to be published in\u00a0Arctic Science<\/a>\u00a0by one of Andrew Derocher\u2019s many students, I now have the title of this secret government report:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atkinson, S., Boulanger, N.J., Campbell, M., Trim, V., Ware, J. and Roberto-Charron, A. 2022.<\/strong>\u00a0Aerial survey of the Western Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation 2021. Final Report, Igloolik, NU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not surprisingly,\u00a0all of the news stories reporting on this report stated or implied<\/a>\u00a0a strong association between this purported population decline and lack of sea ice due to \u2018climate change\u2019. However, sea ice conditions have been\u00a0particularly good over the last five year<\/a>s \u2013 for\u00a0both freeze-up<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0breakup dates<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 calling into question how \u2018lack of sea ice\u2019 could possibly be blamed for the apparent decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u00a0Reuters<\/em>\u00a0story<\/a>\u00a0(dated 23 December 2022) admitted this was the case and included another critical caveat that only one news outlet I saw bothered to mention, which happened to be\u00a0BBC News<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientists cautioned a direct link between the population decline and sea ice loss in Hudson Bay wasn\u2019t yet clear, as four of the past five years have seen moderately good ice conditions. Instead, they said, climate-caused changes in the local seal population might be driving bear numbers down.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I pointed out in a previous post regarding conditions during the period of the Atkinson study:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The purported 27% population decline between 2017 and September 2021 would have required a large number of bears to have died very quickly of starvation over the spring of 2021, even though they were in good shape beforehand. That premise is hard to swallow without some kind of corroborating evidence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That leads to any even bigger question. How does a population of polar bears supposedly decline by 40% over 10 years \u2013 from\u00a0about 1030 in 2011<\/a>\u00a0to\u00a0about 618 in 2021<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 without significant numbers of bears in poor or very poor condition being documented in the years immediately before the counts were done, especially for the\u00a0most-studied<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 and probably the\u00a0most photographed<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 subpopulation in the world?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where are all the studies reporting starving and dying bears, as happened when bears were starving in the 1980s in Western Hudson Bay (Calvert et al. 1986; Derocher and Stirling 1992, 1995; Ramsay and Stirling 1988; Stirling et al. 1980)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apparently, as of this day in 2023, those reports are nowhere to be found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calvert, W., Stirling, I., Schweinsburg, R.E., Lee, L.J., Kolenosky, G.B., Shoesmith, M., Smith, B., Crete, M. and Luttich, S. 1986.<\/strong>\u00a0Polar bear management in Canada 1982-84. In:\u00a0Polar Bears: Proceedings of the 9th meeting of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN\/SSC, 9-11 August, 1985,<\/em>\u00a0Edmonton, Canada. Anonymous (eds). Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN. pg. 19-34.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Derocher, A.E. and Stirling, I. 1992.<\/strong>\u00a0The population dynamics of polar bears in western Hudson Bay. pg. 1150-1159 in D. R. McCullough and R. H. Barrett, eds.\u00a0Wildlife 2001: Populations.<\/em>\u00a0Elsevier Sci. Publ., London, U.K. See abstract below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/em>:\u00a0Reproductive output of polar bears in western Hudson Bay declined through the 1980\u2019s from higher levels in the 1960\u2019s and 1970\u2019s.<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0Age of first reproduction increased slightly and the rate of litter production declined from 0.45 to 0.35 litters\/female\/year over the study, indicating that the reproductive interval had increased. Recruitment of cubs to autumn decreased from 0.71 to 0.53 cubs\/female\/year.\u00a0Cub mortality increased from the early to late 1980\u2019s<\/strong>. Litter size did not show any significant trend or significant annual variation\u00a0due to an increase in loss of the whole litter. Mean body weights of females with cubs in the spring and autumn declined significantly.<\/strong>\u00a0Weights of cubs in the spring did not decline, although weights of both female and male cubs declined over the study. The population is approximately 60% female, possibly due to the sex-biased harvest. Although estimates of population size are not available from the whole period over which we have weight and reproductive data, the changes in reproduction, weight, and cub mortality are consistent with the predictions of a densitydependent response to increasing population size. [my bold]<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Derocher, A.E. and Stirling, I. 1995.<\/strong>\u00a0Temporal variation in reproduction and body mass of polar bears in western Hudson Bay.\u00a0Canadian Journal of Zoology<\/em>73:<\/strong>1657-1665.\u00a0http:\/\/www.nrcresearchpress.com\/doi\/abs\/10.1139\/z95-197<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ramsay, M.A. and Stirling, I. 1988.<\/strong>\u00a0Reproductive biology and ecology of female polar bears (Ursus maritimus<\/em>).\u00a0Journal of Zoology London<\/em>\u00a0214:<\/strong>601-624.\u00a0http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1469-7998.1988.tb03762.x\/abstract<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stirling, I., Schweinsburg, R.E., Kolenasky, G.B., Juniper, I., Robertson, R.J., and Luttich, S. 1980<\/strong>. Proceedings of the 7th meeting of the Polar Bear Specialists Group IUCN\/SSC, 30 January-1 February, 1979, Copenhagen, Denmark. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge UK, IUCN., pg. 45-53.http:\/\/pbsg.npolar.no\/en\/meetings\/<\/a>\u00a0pdf of except\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As will become apparent tomorrow, Western Hudson Bay polar bear numbers apparently declined 27% between 2017 and 2021 but not because of sea ice loss. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":276424,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818745,691818251,691821089,691820789],"class_list":{"0":"post-276419","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-polar-bear","9":"tag-polar-bears","10":"tag-sea-ice-loss","11":"tag-western-hudson-bay","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00Steven-C-Amstrup-000025-1536x1046-1.jpg?fit=1536%2C1046&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-19Un","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":267566,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267566","url_meta":{"origin":276419,"position":0},"title":"Hudson Bay sea ice loss has not accelerated since 2014: in fact, summer ice cover has improved","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/15\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"This is only the third year since 2014 that the bay has had less than usual amounts of ice, which means most years since then have had normal or nearly normal ice coverage, similar to the 1980s. Hardly the\u00a0ever-worsening catastrophe\u00a0of sea ice loss story being spun in the media for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Hudson Bay\"","block_context":{"text":"Hudson Bay","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hudson-bay"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Polar-bears-10.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":236993,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=236993","url_meta":{"origin":276419,"position":1},"title":"W. Hudson Bay polar bear population decline stories are unethical and ignore critical caveats","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/30\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists cautioned a direct link between the population decline and sea ice loss in Hudson Bay wasn\u2019t yet clear, as four of the past five years have seen moderately good ice conditions. Instead, they said, climate-caused changes in the local seal population might be driving bear numbers down.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/082776-050-2DBD6D34.jpg?fit=1200%2C792&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/082776-050-2DBD6D34.jpg?fit=1200%2C792&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/082776-050-2DBD6D34.jpg?fit=1200%2C792&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/082776-050-2DBD6D34.jpg?fit=1200%2C792&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/082776-050-2DBD6D34.jpg?fit=1200%2C792&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":283662,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283662","url_meta":{"origin":276419,"position":2},"title":"Polar bear researchers hiding significant increase in Southern Hudson Bay numbers","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/17\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Good news of the polar bear population blaming fear mongering reports. From polarbearscience Last December, researchers vigorously\u00a0promoted\u00a0a possible 27% decline in Western Hudson Bay (WH) polar bear abundance but kept hidden the fact that adjacent Southern Hudson Bay (SH) numbers\u00a0increased\u00a0by 30% over the same period. 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