{"id":276095,"date":"2023-08-28T20:43:04","date_gmt":"2023-08-28T18:43:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276095"},"modified":"2023-08-28T20:43:07","modified_gmt":"2023-08-28T18:43:07","slug":"walker-circulation-study-is-a-damp-squib-for-climate-worriers-contradicts-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276095","title":{"rendered":"Walker Circulation study is a damp squib for climate worriers, contradicts\u00a0models"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Tallbloke’s Talkshop<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

August 25, 2023 by\u00a0oldbrew<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Walker Circulation \u2013 El Ni\u00f1o conditions [image credit: NOAA]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The paper this article is based on informs us that \u2018The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) has an outsized influence on weather and climate worldwide. Yet the PWC response to external forcings is unclear\u2019. Under a headline saying: \u2018Greenhouse gases are changing air flow over the Pacific Ocean, raising Australia\u2019s risks of extreme weather\u2019, the article here offers almost nothing to support an argument for any human-caused climate effects \u2018in the industrial era\u2019. The paper is somewhat embarrassing for climate models: \u2018Most climate models predict that the PWC will ultimately weaken in response to global warming. However, the PWC strengthened from 1992 to 2011, suggesting a significant role for anthropogenic and\/or volcanic aerosol forcing, or internal variability\u2019. So that role could be anything or nothing, but the models trended the wrong way anyway. The search for \u2018anthropogenic fingerprints\u2019 continues.<\/em>
\u2013 \u2013 \u2013
After a rare three-year La Ni\u00f1a event brought heavy rain and flooding to eastern Australia in 2020-22, we\u2019re now bracing for the heat and drought of El Ni\u00f1o at the opposite end of the spectrum,\u00a0says The Conversation (via Phys.org)<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But while the World Meteorological Organization has declared an El Ni\u00f1o event is underway, Australia\u2019s Bureau of Meteorology is yet to make a similar declaration. Instead, the Bureau remains on \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o alert.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason for this discrepancy is what\u2019s called the Pacific Walker Circulation. The pattern and strength of air flows over the Pacific Ocean, combined with sea surface temperatures, determines whether Australia experiences El Ni\u00f1o or La Ni\u00f1a events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In our new research, published in the journal Nature, we asked whether the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had affected the Walker Circulation. We found the overall strength hasn\u2019t changed yet, but instead, the year-to-year behavior is different.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Switching between El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a conditions has slowed over the industrial era. That means in the future we could see more of these multi-year La Ni\u00f1a or El Ni\u00f1o type events. So we need to prepare for greater risks of floods, drought and fire.\u00a0[Talkshop comment \u2013 alarmist psychobabble].<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

An ocean-atmosphere climate system<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1a and its counterpart El Ni\u00f1o are the two extremes of the El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation\u2014a coupled ocean-atmosphere system that plays a major role in global climate variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Walker Circulation is the atmospheric part. Air rises over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (a region of the ocean that stays warm year-round) and flows eastward high in the atmosphere. Then it sinks back to the surface over the eastern equatorial Pacific and flows back to the west along the surface, forming the Pacific trade winds. In short, it loops in an east-west direction across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the Walker Circulation doesn\u2019t always flow with the same intensity\u2014sometimes it is stronger, and sometimes it is weaker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, the Walker Circulation is what\u2019s missing from the current El Ni\u00f1o event developing in the Pacific Ocean: it has not weakened enough for the Bureau to declare an El Ni\u00f1o event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s happening to the Walker Circulation?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Walker Circulation is a major influence on weather and climate in many places around the world, not just Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A stronger-than-usual Walker Circulation even contributed to the \u201cglobal warming slowdown\u201d of the early 2000s. This is because a stronger Walker Circulation is often associated with slightly cooler global temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So we need to know how it is going to behave in the future. To do that, we first need to know if\u2014and if so, how\u2014the Walker Circulation\u2019s behavior has changed due to human activities. And to do that, we need information about how the Walker Circulation behaved before humans started affecting the climate system.\u00a0[Talkshop comment \u2013 unsupported assertion].<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We reconstructed Walker Circulation variability over the past millennium. We used global data from ice cores, trees, lakes, corals and caves to build a picture of how the Walker Circulation changed over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We found that on average, there has not yet been any industrial-era change in the strength of the Walker Circulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was surprising, because computer simulations of Earth\u2019s climate generally suggest global warming will ultimately cause a weaker, or<\/p>\n\n\n\n

more El Ni\u00f1o-like, Walker Circulation<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full article\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/em>.
\u2013 \u2013 \u2013
Research paper:\u00a0Forced changes in the Pacific Walker circulation over the past millennium<\/a>\u00a0(Aug. 2023)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The paper this article is based on informs us that \u2018The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) has an outsized influence on weather and climate worldwide. Yet the PWC response to external forcings is unclear\u2019.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":276103,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691821872,691818829,691822148,691819222,691818473],"class_list":{"0":"post-276095","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-modelling","10":"tag-enso","11":"tag-pacific-walker-circulation","12":"tag-temperature","13":"tag-weather","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0enso.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-19P9","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":232135,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=232135","url_meta":{"origin":276095,"position":0},"title":"Pacific problems for climate models","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"What this research points to is a failing of climate models in this vital region indicating a huge source of uncertainty in multi-decadal projections of regional and global climate.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-31.png?fit=1094%2C712&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-31.png?fit=1094%2C712&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-31.png?fit=1094%2C712&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-31.png?fit=1094%2C712&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/image-31.png?fit=1094%2C712&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":203446,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=203446","url_meta":{"origin":276095,"position":1},"title":"Model vs Model: Is the North Atlantic Current Collapsing?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Essay by Eric Worrall h\/t Dr. Willie Soon; 12,900 years ago, the North Atlantic Current failed, likely\u00a0due to the emptying of an enormous glacial lake. 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