{"id":276053,"date":"2023-08-28T16:43:12","date_gmt":"2023-08-28T14:43:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276053"},"modified":"2023-08-28T16:43:15","modified_gmt":"2023-08-28T14:43:15","slug":"the-emperors-new-tuxedo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276053","title":{"rendered":"The Emperor\u2019s New\u00a0Tuxedo"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Climate Scepticism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0JIT<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ll get my coat<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As you know, Zen is my middle name. But a mini-tempest swept over my equanimity this week when I caught a bit of Thursday\u2019s PM. The item that set me off balance was based on the paper by Fretwell et al in Communications Earth and Environment. It began thusly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EVAN DAVIES: Very sad news which is the catastrophic death of something like 10,000 young emperor penguins. They were being raised on a piece of sea ice, it broke up, before they had developed enough to be able to swim\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Davies introduced Norman Ratcliffe, seabird ecologist at BAS and one of the study\u2019s authors, who talked about the complete loss of sea ice in November 2022 in the Bellingshausen Sea, resulting in the loss of 4 of 5 emperor penguin colonies\u2026 \u201cpretty tragic news for emperor penguins.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Davies asked for perspective, and Ratcliffe informed him that 10,000 represents \u201cabout 4% of the global population,\u201d [it\u2019s 2% but who\u2019s counting, and the adults are not dead] but that the Bellingshausen is not a central part of their range\u2026 \u201cthis is the first time we\u2019ve seen a regional loss of emperor penguin breeding success.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ratcliffe went on to say that these types of events are normal in emperor breeding ecology but not hitherto observed on such a scale (almost complete failure in an entire region).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EVAN: And this comes back down to global warming, and Antarctic warming, which seems to be occurring at a much more extreme rate than global, than globally it does.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NORMAN RATCLIFFE: Errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr\u2026. It is warming faster in the West Antarctic Peninsula yes, so it is quite difficult to disentangle the effects of natural climate variability from anthropogenic climate change. So at the moment there is quite a strong La Nina event in the Pacific, and that has global repercussions, but in the Bellingshausen Sea that leads to low pressures and more windy conditions. That makes the sea choppier, the sea ice tends to get broken up and moved around more. But the long term predictions are that with warming, sea ice will disappear more around Antarctica. So this observation we\u2019ve made may become a more usual observation in the future, and that will have big impacts on emperor penguin distribution and population size.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thank you, Norman Ratcliffe, for having the integrity not to nod along with Evan\u2019s instinctive misattribution. But I do wonder just how good the long term predictions are. Antarctic winters are still going to be quite cold, I think; I find it hard to believe that sea ice will not form, even under the most extreme scenario, or that what remains will be wholly unsuitable for breeding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Guardian managed to imply that global warming was to blame, without quite nailing its colours to the mast:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Scientists have said emperor penguins face an uncertain future under global heating because they are so reliant on sea ice, which is projected to decline as the world\u2019s oceans heat up.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

It also reminds us that the film \u201cHappy Feet\u201d was based on an emperor penguin. I don\u2019t think we needed to know that, but thanks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201c\u201cIt\u2019s a grim story,\u201d said Dr Peter Fretwell, a researcher with the British Antarctic Survey and the lead author of the research. \u201cI was shocked. It\u2019s very hard to think of these cute fluffy chicks dying in large numbers.<\/p>\n\u201cWe had predicted it for a long time. The sea ice loss has been unprecedented and far quicker than we imagined.\u201d\u201d<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Right, Doc: You were shocked. You had predicted it for a long time. But it was quicker than you had imagined. The way off the stage is over here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Dr Jeremy Wilkinson, a sea ice physicist at the British Antarctic Survey, said the research \u201cdramatically reveals the connection between sea ice loss and ecosystem annihilation\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Gosh. Ecosystem annihilation? You mean there\u2019s nothing there any more?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cFretwell said: \u201cWhat\u2019s most devastating for me is that we know this will get worse before it gets better. This is the trajectory that we are on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s only by changing our behaviour and the amounts of fossil fuels we use will we reverse the trajectory for these emperor penguins, and many other species.<\/p>\n\u201cHow bad it gets is still up to us.\u201d\u201d<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Well, I\u2019ve got a suggestion for a little bit of behaviour change. How about we pull all the scientists out of the Antarctic? Getting all those dudes and dudettes up and down the world on their seasonal jollies comes with quite a carbon footprint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They can still tell us all how **** the world is from the office, using their satellites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Australia\u2019s ABC know what happened\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This sort of sudden collapse of populations driven by climate change has been documented and projected before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThose sorts of biological tipping points are actually quite common,\u201d said Professor Lesley Hughes, an ecologist and climate scientist from Macquarie University.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAnd the problem with climate change is that we\u2019re seeing those biological thresholds starting to be exceeded for lots and lots of different species,\u201d said Professor Hughes, who is also a director at the Climate Council, which advocates for stronger action on climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSo, things just sort of \u2026 fall off some sort of climate cliff.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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Professor Hughes said it was clear what needed to be done to minimise the destruction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe just have to \u2026 very, very rapidly transition out of digging up fossil fuels, exporting them and burning them,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

LOL. I really must read her paper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, I\u2019m going to surprise you by admitting that I could write everything I know about penguins on the back of a stamp. But I had a look to see what a proper birder knew about emperors. This is a quote from Roger Tory Peterson\u2019s book Penguins (from 1979, when oil pollution was more of the zeitgeist).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Blizzards and foul weather are greater hazard to these ponderous penguins. When Edward Wilson investigated the Emperors at Cape Crozier during the Scott expeditions of 1902 and 1911, he noted a very high mortality of eggs and chicks, both years due apparently to unstable ice conditions, which kept many parents from feeding their chicks. The little things became emaciated and eventually froze to death. On the basis of these two expeditions, one could have deduced that either Emperor Penguins had the longevity of humans (70 years or more) or else were a vanishing species. Neither conclusion is correct. Today, we know that those two years recorded by Wilson were not typical. There are years, however, when there may even be a total wipeout of reproduction. This may happen when the sea ice breaks loose from the Ross Ice Shelf prematurely during a storm, and the half-grown young are carried to their destruction.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

According to Wiki, only 19% of emperor chicks survive their first year. The source for this seems to be one old French study that I have not read. But it is likely to be representative I think. With emperors we are dealing with an immense cull of chicks every year. The pairs attempt to rear a single chick, and have a lot of goes at it, since the adults, once established, are quite long-lived. Wiki says 20 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So much so useful, ta Wiki. However, it lets itself down by picking up on the new study in a quite erroneous fashion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A 2023 study found that more than 90% of emperor penguin colonies could face \u201cquasi-extinction\u201d from \u201ccatastrophic breeding failure\u201d due to the loss of sea ice caused by climate change.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The 2023 study \u201cfound\u201d no such thing. It said this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Recent efforts to predict emperor penguin population trends from forecasts of sea ice loss have painted a bleak picture, showing that if present rates of warming persist over 90% of emperor colonies will be quasi-extinct by the end of this century7<\/sup><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the reference to 90% of colonies going \u201cquasi-extinct\u201d comes not from Fretwell et al but their Ref. 7, Trathan et al 2020. However, the expression is not used there, either. This is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A climate-dependent demographic model without emigration, projected that many emperor colonies would decrease by >50% from their current size by 2100, resulting in a dramatic global population decrease (Jenouvrier et al., 2014).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

*Sigh.* Let\u2019s go and have a look at Jenouvrier et al, shall we? Here is their Figure 4, which seems to show the range of outcomes from their computer model. I will leave it to the reader to decide how well he or she believes this model describes the emperor penguin population in 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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I like computer games. I really do. This group of researchers are perfectly entitled to get excited about the imminent doom of their favourite flightless bird. But the rest of the world is not obligated to join the excitement, particularly if the evidence is computer games with outputs along these lines. (I don\u2019t think \u201ccalculated\u201d is the right verb to use.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t believe the models can accurately capture the future of sea ice off Antarctica. Sorry. But even if I did believe that, I would still snort in derision at such figures as Jenouvrier et al\u2019s Figure 4 because, knowing nothing about penguins, I would simply tell you that the colonies will move to more secure locations, such that unless sea ice vanishes utterly, there will be no noticeable decline. Naive of me I know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a press release from the Australian Antarctic Division, in the past, when there was more ice, the emperor penguin apparently had a far more restricted range than today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u2026the research team discovered that conditions were too harsh even for emperor penguins during the last ice age and that the population then was roughly seven times smaller than today and split into three refugial populations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emperor penguin numbers only increased over the last 12,000 years as sea ice decreased around Antarctica throughout the Holocene warming period. This finding suggests that current sea ice conditions may be optimal for emperor penguins.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So \u2013 if it gets any hotter\u2026 they\u2019re dead. If it gets any colder\u2026 they\u2019re dead too. Poor little mites. How lucky for them that the time that is now just so happens to be the sweet spot. What are the odds? And while we\u2019re giving up our SUVs to freeze the sea ice decline, can we ban tourist cruises from flying helicopters over the emperor colonies? Oh yeh. And let\u2019s have no more factory fishing of krill within a couple of hundred miles of the Antarctic coastline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh, the paper itself? Perhaps the reader can explain this paragraph from it to me:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Between the initial collection of Sentinel2 data in Antarctica in 2018 until 2022 the archive of imagery shows only one of the five colonies had witnessed sea ice break up earlier than December (Bryant Peninsula; 2010). One instance of break up in the five colonies in the 4 years of imagery is a likely hood on 0.04. In 2022 the loss of four out of the five sites led to an early break-up a likelihood of 0.80. [Assume \u201csic\u201d for everything there that looks wrong.]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cQuick, Kevin, press the \u201cACCEPT\u201d button! This one\u2019s a keeper!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paragraph 2 of the Introduction included this little typo:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Their populations have never been subject to large-scale hunting, or suffered from habitat loss, overfishing or other local anthropogenic interactions in the modern eara. [sic.]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

NOBODY READ IT before submission, not even the authors, is my conclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is what Fretwell et al. say about the five colonies, the top four of which had complete breeding failure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Colony Name<\/td>Discovery Year<\/td>Approx. no. of Pairs<\/td><\/tr>
Verdi Inlet<\/td>2018<\/td>3000<\/td><\/tr>
Smyley Island<\/td>2009<\/td>3500<\/td><\/tr>
Bryant Coast<\/td>2014<\/td>2000<\/td><\/tr>
Pfrogner Point<\/td>2019<\/td>1200<\/td><\/tr>
Rothschild Island<\/td>Not stated (since 2009)<\/td>700<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Great news guys! We\u2019ve discovered five new emperor colonies!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh no, four of them had total breeding failure in 2022! If only we hadn\u2019t found them with our shiny new satellite we wouldn\u2019t be so depressed now! Ignorance is bliss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[Edited before publication to remove a ranty page about sentimentalism in the way humans think about Nature. This was already way overlong, so that particular sub-rant will have to wait for another day.]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS. Wait, you cry. Jit can\u2019t fly the coop yet. He hasn\u2019t told me what \u201cQuasi-extinct\u201d means.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh yeh. Well, it means not extinct. If you were \u201cQuasi-dead\u201d you\u2019d still be alive. (It\u2019s described as a 90% population reduction.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

References<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Fretwell et al.\u00a0https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s43247-023-00927-x<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trathan et al.\u00a0https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0006320719309899<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jenouvrier et al. cebc.cnrs.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/publipdf\/2014\/JNCC4_2014.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEmperor penguins \u2013 survival through the ages\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0https:\/\/www.antarctica.gov.au\/news\/2015\/emperor-penguins-survival-through-the-ages\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roger Tory Peterson (1979). Penguins. Houghton Mifflin, Boston (available at Archive.org).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wiki page on emperors:\u00a0https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Emperor_penguin<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

PM, Thursday 24th<\/sup>\u00a0August, 2023.\u00a0https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/sounds\/play\/m001ptdz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ABC coverage:\u00a0https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2023-08-25\/antarctica-sea-ice-loss-affects-emperor-penguin-breeding\/102765634<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guardian coverage:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/aug\/25\/emperor-penguins-thousands-of-chicks-in-antarctica-likely-died-due-to-record-low-sea-ice-levels<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Great news guys! We\u2019ve discovered five new emperor colonies!<\/p>\n

Oh no, four of them had total breeding failure in 2022! If only we hadn\u2019t found them with our shiny new satellite we wouldn\u2019t be so depressed now! Ignorance is bliss.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":276071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691822137,691822138,691818087],"class_list":{"0":"post-276053","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-antarctic-warming","9":"tag-emperor-penguins","10":"tag-global-warming","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0Penguin_6-1.jpg?fit=1600%2C1072&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-19Ot","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":276233,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=276233","url_meta":{"origin":276053,"position":0},"title":"Media Spews Misinformation About Emperor Penguin\u2019s Breeding Failure","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The recently published paper by Peter Fretwell titled\u00a0Record Low 2022 Antarctic Sea Ice led to\u00a0Catastrophic Breeding Failure of Emperor Penguins, set off a wave of misinformed doomsday articles, as his introduction stated \u201cRecent efforts to predict emperor penguin population trends from forecasts of sea ice loss have painted a bleak\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00penguin-doom.jpg?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00penguin-doom.jpg?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00penguin-doom.jpg?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00penguin-doom.jpg?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":203875,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=203875","url_meta":{"origin":276053,"position":1},"title":"My scientific blog posts contributed to the failed Antarctic Treaty bid to protect Emperor penguins","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"There is actual evidence that two of my fully referenced\u00a0blog posts caused some Antarctic Treaty delegates to reject a bid for special protected status for Emperor penguins.\u00a0Activist heads have exploded. At\u00a0a meeting\u00a0of the\u00a0Antarctic Treaty\u00a0organization in Berlin last week\u2013see\u00a0yesterday\u2019s post\u2013it seems the Chinese delegates read my blog and\u00a0weren\u2019t impressed\u00a0to find out\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0daily-mav-tweet-about-penguins-6-june-2022.jpg?fit=608%2C749&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0daily-mav-tweet-about-penguins-6-june-2022.jpg?fit=608%2C749&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0daily-mav-tweet-about-penguins-6-june-2022.jpg?fit=608%2C749&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":203123,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=203123","url_meta":{"origin":276053,"position":2},"title":"China ruins Antarctic Treaty attempt to enact special protection status for Emperor penguins","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"China has thwarted\u00a0an attempt by members of the\u00a0Antarctic Treaty\u00a0organization to enact special protection status for the Emperor penguin, which would have generated a\u00a0\u201aSpecies Action Plan\u2018.\u00a0Apparently, such a proposal required a consensus of all parties and China wouldn\u2019t go along. But as we know from past actions by the IUCN Polar\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0emperor-penguins-noaa_wikipedia-2006-med.jpg?fit=1024%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0emperor-penguins-noaa_wikipedia-2006-med.jpg?fit=1024%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0emperor-penguins-noaa_wikipedia-2006-med.jpg?fit=1024%2C673&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/0emperor-penguins-noaa_wikipedia-2006-med.jpg?fit=1024%2C673&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":275974,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275974","url_meta":{"origin":276053,"position":3},"title":"\u201c10k dead penguin chicks\u201d more animal tragedy porn used to advance global warming agenda","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Like the\u00a02017 video\u00a0of the\u00a0National Geographic starving polar bear, the 2022 deaths of emperor penguin deaths promoted last week is emotional blackmail. Both are examples of preposterous fear-mongering pushed by activist scientists and the media for political purposes. Don\u2019t fall for it.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-1030.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-1030.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-1030.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-1030.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":226252,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=226252","url_meta":{"origin":276053,"position":4},"title":"Emperor penguins join polar bears on ESA list of threatened species based on flawed climate models","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"However, it should be noted that there is considerable uncertainty over future climatic changes and how these will impact the species.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-1338.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-1338.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-1338.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-1338.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-1338.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":366417,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=366417","url_meta":{"origin":276053,"position":5},"title":"We\u2019re all Doomed!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"So says the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.","rel":"","context":"In \"black swan\"","block_context":{"text":"black swan","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=black-swan"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/01003885-climate-change-g22d1e89521280.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/01003885-climate-change-g22d1e89521280.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/01003885-climate-change-g22d1e89521280.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/01003885-climate-change-g22d1e89521280.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/01003885-climate-change-g22d1e89521280.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=276053"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276053\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":276072,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/276053\/revisions\/276072"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/276071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=276053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=276053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=276053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}