{"id":275830,"date":"2023-08-27T14:42:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-27T12:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275830"},"modified":"2023-08-27T14:42:03","modified_gmt":"2023-08-27T12:42:03","slug":"the-energy-transition-isnt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275830","title":{"rendered":"The Energy Transition Isn’t"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Substack<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Robert Bryce<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Despite $4.1 trillion spent on wind and solar, they aren’t even keeping pace with the growth in hydrocarbons<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are inundated with claims about the \u201cenergy transition.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In February, E&E News<\/a>, reporting on the State of the Union speech said, \u00a0\u201cPresident Joe Biden laid out his vision for the energy transition Tuesday night.\u201d In March,\u00a0a reporter for Politico declared<\/a>\u00a0\u201cThe U.S. energy transition is well underway.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also in March, during a speech at the CERAWeek conference in Houston, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said that “As this transition progresses, our energy mix will change<\/a>.” Or consider the March 9\u00a0press release from the White House<\/a>, which said \u201cThe Administration is continuing to implement the Inflation Reduction Act, which is already galvanizing our clean energy transition and making clean and energy efficient technologies more affordable for American families.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I could list many more examples like the ones above. But the hard truth is this: the energy transition isn\u2019t. The numbers from the just-released\u00a0Statistical Review of World Energy<\/a>\u00a0show, once again, that despite rapid growth in wind and solar, those two forms of energy are not even keeping pace with the growth in hydrocarbons. That\u2019s true both globally and in the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The global story can be seen in the two pie charts above. In 2004, hydrocarbons provided 86% of global primary energy. The balance came from hydro, nuclear, and biomass. By 2022, hydrocarbons\u2019 share of global primary energy had dropped by four percentage points, to 82%, wind and solar made up 5%, and the balance came from hydro, nuclear, and biomass. But in absolute terms, hydrocarbon consumption grew by 110 exajoules, (EJ), while wind and solar grew by just 32 EJ. \u00a0Thus, the growth in hydrocarbon use over that time frame was 3.4 times faster than what was seen in wind and solar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And here\u2019s the key point: hydrocarbons are prevailing despite staggering amounts of spending on wind and solar. According to\u00a0a January report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance<\/a>, some $6.7 trillion was spent on alt-energy globally between 2004 and 2022, with the vast majority of that, some $4.8 trillion spent on renewables. And the vast majority of that $4.8 trillion \u2014 about $4.1 trillion \u2014 was spent on wind and solar.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ll come back to the U.S. numbers \u2014 which like the global numbers, show hydrocarbon growth outstripping wind and solar \u2014 in a moment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before I do so, it\u2019s important to provide some context and to understand why we are hearing so much \u2014 call it what it is,\u00a0propaganda<\/em>\u00a0\u2014 about the energy transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, the context. Yes, wind and solar are growing rapidly. In 2022, nearly all of the growth in global electricity generation (about 645 terawatt-hours) was met by the surge in wind and solar production, which grew by 251 and 263 TWh respectively. Global wind output grew by 13% in 2022 and solar increased by 24%. The U.S. saw almost identical percentage increases, with wind and solar generation growing by\u00a015% and 24%, respectively<\/a>. Those are impressive increases. As the EIA reported on March 27, in the U.S., \u201cgeneration from renewable sources \u2014 wind, solar, hydro, biomass, and geothermal \u2014\u00a0surpassed coal-fired generation in the electric power sector for the first time<\/a>.\u201d It also noted that generation from all renewables \u201csurpassed nuclear generation for the first time in 2021.\u201d \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These increases are important. But electricity only\u00a0represents about a fifth of final energy demand<\/a>. (Final energy, as Hannah Ritchie of Our World in Data explains, is what \u201ca\u00a0consumer buys and receives, such as electricity in their home<\/a>, heating, or petrol at the fuel pump.\u201d) So if growth in hydrocarbons is outstripping the growth in wind and solar, why are we being flooded with claims about the energy transition? The short answer: it\u2019s part of a media campaign that has surged under the Biden Administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Evidence of the marketing effort can be seen in the number of times the phrase in question has appeared in the\u00a0New York Times<\/em>\u00a0over the past few years. (Hat tip to Roger Pielke Jr., who used this to illustrate a media trend. If you haven\u2019t subscribed to his Substack, you should. Roger published a\u00a0good piece on the energy transition on Thursday<\/a>.) As can be seen in the graphic above, from 2015 to 2020, \u201cenergy transition\u201d occurred only a few times per year. But in 2021, the year Biden took office, the mentions doubled, and then tripled to 146 mentions in 2022. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The energy transition claims are increasing because that narrative is relentlessly promoted by alt-energy NGOs like the Rocky Mountain Institute (2022 revenue: $115 million<\/a>) that have massive budgets and scads of sympathetic reporters at legacy media outlets. Those NGOs are part of\u00a0the anti-industry industry<\/a>, which is collecting untold millions of dollars in dark money to push claims about the energy transition and the fiction that the global economy can be run solely on wind, solar, batteries, and a dollop of hydropower and hopium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last month, the Rocky Mountain Institute published a report which claimed \u201cthis is the pivotal decade in the energy transition<\/a>,\u201d and that \u201csolar and EVs will rise to dominate sector sales by 2030\u201d and renewables will hit \u201cprice tipping points in every major area of energy demand.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It’s essential to note that the Colorado-based NGO has been leading the effort to implement a nationwide ban on the use of natural gas in homes and businesses. The group is also a leading recipient of dark money.\u00a0According to its annual report<\/a>, the group got at least $1 million in 2022 from Climate Imperative Foundation, the secretive NGO (2021 revenue: $221 million<\/a>) that I wrote about in\u00a0The Billionaires Behind The Gas Bans<\/a>. RMI also got at least $1 million from one of the biggest dark money climate NGOs, the ClimateWorks Foundation (2021 revenue: $366 million<\/a>). In addition, RMI got at least $1 million from the Bezos Earth Fund, Bloomberg Philanthropies, and Breakthrough Energy, as well as at least $500,000 from another big dark-money NGO, the Energy Foundation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the fortunes being spent by the climate claque to promote claims about renewables and the energy transition, global hydrocarbon use and CO2<\/sub>\u00a0emissions continue to rise. That\u2019s also true here in the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, the U.S. had the world\u2019s third-largest increase in CO2<\/sub>\u00a0emissions, 57 megatons. (U.S. emissions last year totaled 4,826 Mt.) The U.S. followed only Indonesia (172 Mt) and India (131 Mt) in that category. China\u2019s emissions fell slightly, by 0.1% or 13 Mt, in 2022. That said, China\u2019s emissions are, by far, the biggest in the world, at 10,550 Mt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

According to BNEF, between 2004 and 2022, U.S. spending on wind and solar totaled some $591 billion. Despite that massive investment, as can be seen in the graphic above, just the growth \u2014\u00a0repeat, just the growth<\/em>\u00a0\u2014 in natural gas consumption in 2022 was twice the growth in wind and solar combined. Coal demand fell by 0.7 EJ. Oil use grew by 0.6 EJ and gas grew by 1.6 EJ. Thus, the net growth in hydrocarbon use in the U.S. in 2022 was 1.5 EJ, or 1.9 times the growth seen in wind and solar combined. (An exajoule, an SI unit, is 1018<\/sup>, or 1 quintillion joules. An exajoule is roughly equal to one quadrillion Btu. It\u2019s also roughly equal to the energy contained in 1 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Domestic gas use in 2022 jumped by a whopping 5.4% and hit a record 85.3 billion cubic feet per day. In March, the Energy Information Administration reported that gas consumption\u00a0set monthly records in 9 of 12 months in 2022<\/a>. Not only did annual use hit a new record, but the U.S. also set a\u00a0new record for daily high demand.<\/a>\u00a0On December 23, U.S. gas use hit 141 billion cubic feet. The previous record was 137 billion cubic feet per day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Lest you think 2022 was an anomaly, look at the graphic above, which shows a similar story in 2021, only the growth in hydrocarbons was even more substantial, with hydrocarbons outgrowing wind and solar by 5.7 times. The latest projections from the EIA expect the global consumption trends to continue. In March, the agency said it expects global liquid fuel use to go from 99.4 million barrels per day in \u00a02022 to\u00a0100.9 MMbbl\/d this year<\/a>. But that figure has already been surpassed. This week, Enverus reported that global oil demand hit 101.5 MMbbl\/d during the second quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I wrote 13 years ago in my fourth book,\u00a0Power Hungry<\/a><\/em>, \u201cIf oil didn\u2019t exist, we\u2019d have to invent it.\u201d When tallying up its many attributes \u2014\u00a0energy density, ease of handling, scale, convenience, cost<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 it\u2019s clear that oil is almost a miracle substance. Put simply, hydrocarbon use continues growing because coal, oil, and natural gas can provide the vast amounts of reliable, dispatchable energy that the world demands at prices consumers can afford. And like it or not, that will continue to be the case for years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One final point: imagine how much further along the world would be today if the $4.1 trillion spent on wind and solar over the past 18 years had, instead, been spent on developing and deploying the next generation of nuclear power plants. That would be an energy transition worth writing about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/ol>\n\n\n\n
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    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Despite $4.1 trillion spent on wind and solar, they aren’t even keeping pace with the growth in hydrocarbons<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":275845,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818076,691818618,691818558,691820814,691818130,691819121],"class_list":{"0":"post-275830","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-co2","9":"tag-energy-transition","10":"tag-evs","11":"tag-hydrocarbons","12":"tag-renewables","13":"tag-wind-and-solar-power","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG.qrWZXRNavADFpwzEb.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-19KS","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":311494,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=311494","url_meta":{"origin":275830,"position":0},"title":"Saudi Oil Giant CEO says world should abandon the fantasy of living without oil","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/22\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In a radical move, the CEO of an oil giant actually defended oil. 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