{"id":275648,"date":"2023-08-26T14:58:25","date_gmt":"2023-08-26T12:58:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275648"},"modified":"2023-08-26T14:58:28","modified_gmt":"2023-08-26T12:58:28","slug":"carbon-offsets-from-forest-conservation-projects-have-been-overestimated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275648","title":{"rendered":"Carbon Offsets from Forest Conservation Projects have Been Overestimated"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"380\" data-attachment-id=\"275653\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=275653\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-972.png?fit=1200%2C630&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1200,630\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-972\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-972.png?fit=723%2C380&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-972.png?resize=723%2C380&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-275653\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-972.png?resize=1024%2C538&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-972.png?resize=300%2C158&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-972.png?resize=768%2C403&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-972.png?w=1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"208\" data-attachment-id=\"275649\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=275649\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-971.png?fit=1300%2C373&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1300,373\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-971\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-971.png?fit=723%2C208&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-971.png?resize=723%2C208&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-275649\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-971.png?resize=1024%2C294&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-971.png?resize=300%2C86&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-971.png?resize=768%2C220&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-971.png?resize=1200%2C344&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-971.png?w=1300&amp;ssl=1 1300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurekalert.org\/releaseguidelines\">Peer-Reviewed Publication<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE (AAAS)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A new analysis reveals that emission reductions from forest conservation projects \u2013 sometimes used to \u201coffset\u201d carbon emissions from other sources \u2013 have been overestimated. According to a new study, many REDD+ (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) programs have not significantly reduced deforestation, and those that did had benefits substantially lower than have been claimed. \u201cThe implications of [the study\u2019s] findings are far reaching,\u201d write Julia Jones and Simon Lewis in a related Perspective. \u201cMisleading offsets carry negative consequences for the climate because they are not offsetting the emissions release, for forest conservation because they are not reducing deforestation as much as claimed, and for the future finance of forest conservation because the reputational risks of being tainted by accusations of greenwash may deter future investments.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some private companies, individuals, and governments offset their carbon emissions by investing in projects that would prevent emissions that would have otherwise occurred, such as conservation projects designed to reduce deforestation. While carbon offsets from REDD+ programs are often traded as credits in carbon markets (with an estimated value of $1.3 billion USD) and claimed when calculating carbon emission budgets, there has been little rigorous evidence as to whether the projects deliver on their promises. Here, Thales West and colleagues evaluated 26 REDD+ projects in 6 countries worldwide and used synthetic control methods to estimate how much deforestation the projects prevented. West&nbsp;<em>et al.<\/em>&nbsp;found that most projects did not substantially reduce deforestation, and that the few that did reduced it much less than had been claimed. Furthermore, the authors show that a subset of 18 REDD+ projects have generated 62 million carbon-offset credits \u2013 14.6 million of which have already been used by entities around the world to offset their carbon emissions. According to the study\u2019s estimates, these projects have been used to offset nearly 3 times more carbon than their actual contributions to climate change mitigation, with 47.7 million more carbon offset-credits currently readily available on the market. \u201cMethodologies used to construct deforestation baselines for carbon offset interventions need urgent revisions to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the projects, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting,\u201d write West&nbsp;<em>et al.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">JOURNAL<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Science<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">DOI<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1126\/science.ade3535\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">10.1126\/science.ade3535\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ARTICLE TITLE<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">25-Aug-2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurekalert.org\/news-releases\/999039\">From EurekAlert!<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Video Comment~cr<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/YkLUho5wLLY?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then there\u2019s this oldie but goodie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"212\" data-attachment-id=\"275654\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=275654\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-973.png?fit=1526%2C447&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1526,447\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-973\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-973.png?fit=723%2C212&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-973.png?resize=723%2C212&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-275654\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-973.png?resize=1024%2C300&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-973.png?resize=300%2C88&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-973.png?resize=768%2C225&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-973.png?resize=1200%2C352&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-973.png?w=1526&amp;ssl=1 1526w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-973.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/climate-change\/news\/carbon-offsets-microsoft-bp-forests-wildfires-b1897012.html\">https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/climate-change\/news\/carbon-offsets-microsoft-bp-forests-wildfires-b1897012.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new analysis reveals that emission reductions from forest conservation projects \u2013 sometimes used to \u201coffset\u201d carbon emissions from other sources \u2013 have been overestimated. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":275653,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818076,691822100,691822101,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-275648","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-co2","10":"tag-forrest-conservation","11":"tag-greenwash","12":"tag-net-zero","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-972.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-19HW","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":314204,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=314204","url_meta":{"origin":275648,"position":0},"title":"Study: Aussie Outback Carbon Offset Tree Planting \u201c\u2026 not reducing emissions as promised \u2026\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Researchers find carbon offsets approach, which is supposed to regenerate scrubby outback forests, was not reducing emissions as promised","rel":"","context":"In \"Australia\"","block_context":{"text":"Australia","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=australia"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0AdobeStock_192559572.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0AdobeStock_192559572.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0AdobeStock_192559572.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0AdobeStock_192559572.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0AdobeStock_192559572.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":212200,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=212200","url_meta":{"origin":275648,"position":1},"title":"Worrying Finding in California\u2019s Multi-Billion-Dollar Climate Initiative Reveals Problem with Using Forests to Offset CO2 Emissions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"[cr comment: HaHa] Peer-Reviewed Publication FRONTIERS Researchers have found that California\u2019s forest carbon buffer pool, designed to ensure the durability of the state\u2019s multi-billion-dollar carbon offset program, is severely undercapitalized. The results show that, within the offset program\u2019s first 10 years, estimated carbon losses from wildfires have depleted at least\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-166.png?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-166.png?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-166.png?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-166.png?fit=848%2C565&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":211954,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=211954","url_meta":{"origin":275648,"position":2},"title":"California\u2019s multi-billion-dollar climate initiative reveals problem with using forests to offset CO2 emissions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Smoke from a California wildfire [image credit: BBC] There\u2019s a \u2018fundamental design problem\u2019, namely that the forests have an unfortunate tendency to burn down. Research finds it \u2018incredibly unlikely\u2019 that such schemes will work, and not only in California.\u2013 \u2013 \u2013Researchers have found that California\u2019s forest carbon buffer pool, designed\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0wildfire1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0wildfire1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0wildfire1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0wildfire1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C576&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":290317,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=290317","url_meta":{"origin":275648,"position":3},"title":"Climate Colonialism: \u2018The looming land grab in Africa for carbon credits\u2019 \u2013 Western carbon offset companies look to lock up \u2018a tenth of Liberia\u2019s land mass, a fifth of Zimbabwe\u2019s, &amp; swaths of Kenya, Zambia &amp; Tanzania\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Financial Times: The looming land grab in Africa for carbon credits - Western carbon offset companies look to lock up \"a tenth of Liberia\u2019s land mass, a fifth of Zimbabwe\u2019s, and swaths of Kenya, Zambia and Tanzania\" - \u201cThe [methods] of exploitation might be new but the consequences are not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Africa\"","block_context":{"text":"Africa","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=africa"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00GApj_yBWAAAQJoS-935x1024-1.jpeg?fit=935%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00GApj_yBWAAAQJoS-935x1024-1.jpeg?fit=935%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00GApj_yBWAAAQJoS-935x1024-1.jpeg?fit=935%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/00GApj_yBWAAAQJoS-935x1024-1.jpeg?fit=935%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":372880,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=372880","url_meta":{"origin":275648,"position":4},"title":"Examining the Global Carbon Project\u2019s Estimates of CO2 Sources and Sinks, 1959-2023","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"By choosing the \u201cbest\u201d models and estimates of CO2 fluxes (those which best explain year-to-year changes in atmospheric CO2 content as measured at Mauna Loa, HI) for the period 1959-2023 as provided by the Global Carbon Project, a multiple linear regression of yearly Mauna Loa CO2 changes against those \u201cbest\u201d\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0roywspencer_13617_hot_summer_day_with_puffy_clouds_over_a_corn__82601fd1-84ed-4754-bc55-d3fd32ffe0f1.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0roywspencer_13617_hot_summer_day_with_puffy_clouds_over_a_corn__82601fd1-84ed-4754-bc55-d3fd32ffe0f1.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0roywspencer_13617_hot_summer_day_with_puffy_clouds_over_a_corn__82601fd1-84ed-4754-bc55-d3fd32ffe0f1.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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