{"id":275457,"date":"2023-08-25T10:27:13","date_gmt":"2023-08-25T08:27:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275457"},"modified":"2023-08-25T10:27:25","modified_gmt":"2023-08-25T08:27:25","slug":"why-climate-models-cant-be-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275457","title":{"rendered":"Why Climate Models Can\u2019t Be\u00a0Right"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"651\" data-attachment-id=\"254205\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=254205\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?fit=1920%2C1728&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1920,1728\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00modelsvsdata\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?fit=723%2C651&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?resize=723%2C651&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-254205\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?resize=1024%2C922&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?resize=300%2C270&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?resize=768%2C691&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?resize=1536%2C1382&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?resize=1200%2C1080&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"http:\/\/rclutz.com\/\">Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rclutz.com\/author\/ronaldrc\/\">Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"275458\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=275458\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-942.png?fit=600%2C488&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,488\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-942\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-942.png?fit=600%2C488&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-942.png?resize=723%2C588&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-275458\" style=\"width:760px;height:618px\" width=\"723\" height=\"588\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-942.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-942.png?resize=300%2C244&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vic Hughes explains in his American Thinker article\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.americanthinker.com\/articles\/2023\/08\/the_blunt_truth_about_global_warming_models.html\"><strong>The Blunt Truth about Global Warming Models.\u00a0<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">I may be one of the first scientists in the country to know that<br>predicting long-term temperatures is not possible.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Almost\u00a0<strong>50 years ago<\/strong>, while in grad school, I had a\u00a0<strong>contract<\/strong>\u00a0from an Army research lab\u00a0<strong>to use a state-of-the-art models to predict long-term temperatures.<\/strong>\u00a0I quickly realized that the goal of the project, to forecast accurately the temperature long-term, was\u00a0<strong>impossible<\/strong>\u00a0because\u00a0<strong>small errors in data inputs could result in huge forecasts errors.<\/strong>\u00a0Equally important was that\u00a0<strong>errors compounded so quickly<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>that<\/strong>\u00a0it caused the<strong>\u00a0error ranges<\/strong>\u00a0to\u00a0<strong>explode<\/strong>. The results were junk.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">As an example, what good is a temperature forecast with an error range<br>of plus or minus one hundred degrees?<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>I give university speeches to scientists and tell them: if you ever see some data or forecasts, your first question has to be \u201cwhat\u2019s the error range?\u201d\u00a0<strong>If you don\u2019t know the error range, the data are almost useless.<\/strong>\u00a0It\u2019s not coincidental that the\u00a0<strong>Climate Mafia don\u2019t highlight this problem<\/strong><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>So what about modern technology solving these problems?\u00a0<strong>These error problems are still true today.<\/strong>\u00a0It\u2019s not that the\u00a0<strong>long-term temperature forecasts<\/strong>\u00a0are wrong; it\u2019s that they\u00a0<strong>can\u2019t be right<\/strong>. All global warming\u00a0<strong>modelers know this, or they are incredibly stupid, or they just lie about it for money or power.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>When the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made even a pretense of being science-based, they used to admit it. From the\u00a0<strong>2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u201cThe climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore<br>the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.\u201d<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"264176\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=264176\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0corn-models-reality.jpg?fit=595%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"595,400\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0corn-models-reality\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0corn-models-reality.jpg?fit=595%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0corn-models-reality.jpg?resize=723%2C486&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-264176\" style=\"width:761px;height:512px\" width=\"723\" height=\"486\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0corn-models-reality.jpg?w=595&amp;ssl=1 595w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0corn-models-reality.jpg?resize=300%2C202&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The weather is a coupled, non-linear chaotic system.\u00a0<strong>Chaos theory says very small changes in inputs can result in totally different outcomes<\/strong>. This concept is counterintuitive for most people. We intrinsically think that if you\u2019re a little off at the beginning, you should be a little off at the end. Try that on a mountain trail next to a cliff.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>The Climate Mafia<\/strong>\u00a0know that this is true, but they still want money and power. They\u00a0<strong>argue<\/strong>\u00a0that even though you can\u2019t make a real temperature forecast,\u00a0<strong>they can create a completely bogus forecasting approach<\/strong>, where they take a bunch of different climate models that don\u2019t agree (so much for settled science) and combine their outputs. They then say\u00a0<strong>voil\u00e0<\/strong>: we have a correct prediction, and they use pseudo-statistics to get around the error problem. The way I visualize it is, if\u00a0<strong>you take a bunch<\/strong>\u00a0(an ensemble sounds more scientific)\u00a0<strong>of wrong answers and then combine them, that is the right answer.<\/strong>\u00a0Absurd.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"561\" data-attachment-id=\"275462\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=275462\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0climate-models-epic-fail.webp?fit=999%2C775&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"999,775\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0climate-models-epic-fail\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0climate-models-epic-fail.webp?fit=723%2C561&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0climate-models-epic-fail.webp?resize=723%2C561&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-275462\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0climate-models-epic-fail.webp?w=999&amp;ssl=1 999w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0climate-models-epic-fail.webp?resize=300%2C233&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0climate-models-epic-fail.webp?resize=768%2C596&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Since\u00a0<strong>your input data are critical to forecasting<\/strong>\u00a0the Chaotic Future, fully understanding past temperatures is also critical. The Climate Mafia create the\u00a0<strong>entirely bogus concept of an \u201caverage Earth temperature\u201d to create a bogus base data set for their bogus models<\/strong>. The Warming Scammers like to use a garbage temperature history that starts about 1850. The Scammers say that\u00a0<strong>their temperatures increased since 1850, just coincidentally at the end of a three-hundred-year cooling cycle<\/strong>, represent the rise of the industrial pollution age. In 1850, and even in 1950,\u00a0<strong>only a small percentage of world\u2019s population could even be considered close to industrialized.<\/strong>\u00a0Look at India, Africa, and China then: almost medieval energy use patterns until really recently. Humans have been around in their current form for many tens of thousands of years.\u00a0<strong>To say the weather since the 1850s is representative of anything from a statistical perspective is a joke.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">So what kind of temperature data do we have since 1850?<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>With<strong>&nbsp;oceans and ice caps covering over 80+%<\/strong>&nbsp;of the world\u2019s surface, we have virtually<strong>&nbsp;no reliable long-term data<\/strong>&nbsp;on any of that, other than the&nbsp;<strong>last few decades<\/strong>. Even then, you are talking about a relatively&nbsp;<strong>small number of measuring devises<\/strong>&nbsp;in all those places. (Do you check the weather a few hundred miles away to know if you need an umbrella?) How about the temperature trends in deserts, on mountains, in the middle of Africa, South America, Siberia \u2014 at sea level, a hundred feet elevation, a thousand feet elevation? The&nbsp;<strong>data are so bad in all of the Southern Hemisphere<\/strong>&nbsp;\u2014 half the globe \u2014 that there are only a few datasets even close to reliable since the 1850s. There are almost&nbsp;<strong>no real, reliable, and complete long-term data globally<\/strong>, and particularly none reliable enough to create model of a chaotic system entirely dependent on very accurate input data.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/realclimatescience.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/122016.gif?w=723&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The concept of \u201caverage Earth temperature\u201d is critical to their bogus forecasting, but because we think\u00a0<strong>\u201caverage\u201d generally means something useful,<\/strong>\u00a0it gets a mental pass. As an example, describe the \u201caverage\u201d human.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Let me offer a thought experiment. What is the average temperature<br>of your house within one degree?<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>How many sensors, with what degree of accuracy<\/strong>\u00a0reading the temperature, how often, would you need to know the average temperature within one degree? One sensor won\u2019t do it. Would ten sensors (a hundred? a thousand?) be needed to cover the ceilings, floors, six feet up, each corner of every room, near every doors and window and heat source,\u00a0<strong>measuring the temperature every hour, minute, second for a period of years<\/strong>, to get an average temperature within one degree?\u00a0<strong>How do you weight a gauge<\/strong>\u00a0in a big room versus a small one, or in the ceiling versus the floor?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>If we can\u2019t even figure out the long-term average temperature of one building,<strong>\u00a0it is complete hubris to think we can create accurate enough global temperature inputs to predict 100 years out.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"517\" data-attachment-id=\"275465\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=275465\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-943.png?fit=996%2C712&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"996,712\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-943\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-943.png?fit=723%2C517&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-943.png?resize=723%2C517&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-275465\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-943.png?w=996&amp;ssl=1 996w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-943.png?resize=300%2C214&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-943.png?resize=768%2C549&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>I won\u2019t even get into outright data fraud<\/strong>, like lowering the hot 1930s or selectively changing input locations to make the current temperatures look hotter.\u00a0<strong>The data are bad enough on their own<\/strong>. Using faulty data to predict the future creates faulty forecasts. Garbage in, garbage out.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Perhaps the greatest part of the\u00a0<strong>Global Warming Scam<\/strong>\u00a0is that it\u00a0<strong>requires a complete disregard for common sense.<\/strong>\u00a0We all know that\u00a0<strong>weather forecasters can\u2019t predict next week\u2019s weather within 1 degree,<\/strong>\u00a0but the Scammers push the<strong>\u00a0lie that they can predict the temperature a hundred years from now<\/strong>\u00a0within a degree or two. That literally defies credulity.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>More importantly, say you had perfect data and a perfect model.\u00a0<strong>How could we possibly know what impact that will have?<\/strong>\u00a0Another thought experiment:\u00a0<strong>How much will temperatures vary where you live<\/strong>\u00a0today? Ten degrees? Twenty degrees? Thirty? How much does it vary in a year? For most of the U.S., that number might be 50 degrees, a 100 degrees. So\u00a0<strong>plants and animals have adapted to 20-degree temperatures changes in a day or 100-degree temperature changes in a year<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"275467\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=275467\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-944.png?fit=427%2C357&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"427,357\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-944\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-944.png?fit=427%2C357&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-944.png?resize=723%2C604&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-275467\" style=\"width:760px;height:635px\" width=\"723\" height=\"604\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-944.png?w=427&amp;ssl=1 427w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-944.png?resize=300%2C251&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Daily average temperature variability of Bolu City, Turkey, and its 365-day moving average.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#e81515\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Somehow a 1- or 2-degree temperature change in a hundred years<br>is going to take them out? That\u2019s ridiculous.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Finally, when somebody offers me a forecast, my first question is,<strong>\u00a0how right have your other forecasts been?<\/strong>\u00a0<strong>We are now in the third or fourth ten-year period<\/strong>\u00a0of the last forty years\u00a0<strong>when the world is going to end in ten years<\/strong>. That tells you all you need to know about global warming forecasting.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"275469\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=275469\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-945.png?fit=360%2C284&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"360,284\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-945\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-945.png?fit=360%2C284&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-945.png?resize=723%2C570&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-275469\" style=\"width:758px;height:598px\" width=\"723\" height=\"570\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-945.png?w=360&amp;ssl=1 360w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-945.png?resize=300%2C237&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>The fact that any counter-narratives have to be censored is also damning<\/strong>. A final fact to consider is one my mother taught me at a young age: when the other side starts calling you names (deniers, anti-vaxxers), you know they have lost the argument.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>And yet we should totally restructure society based on those impossible models.<\/strong>\u00a0This was probably the greatest scientific lie in history, and<strong>\u00a0people believed it<\/strong>.\u00a0<strong>After that, selling the lie that even though mRNA vaccines have never worked<\/strong>\u00a0in thirty years and generally killed all their test subjects but<strong>\u00a0are now safe and effective for humans, including babies<\/strong>, after two months of limited testing, is child\u2019s play. Joseph Goebbels, a proponent of the \u201cBig Lie,\u201d would be proud about both lies.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Before we restructure the world based on models, we must realize they can\u2019t be right.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"275470\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=275470\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-946.png?fit=500%2C278&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"500,278\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-946\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-946.png?fit=500%2C278&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-946.png?resize=723%2C402&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-275470\" style=\"width:760px;height:423px\" width=\"723\" height=\"402\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-946.png?w=500&amp;ssl=1 500w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-946.png?resize=300%2C167&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The blue background obscures these are estimates of\u00a0 <strong>TRILLIONS<\/strong>\u00a0of Dollars.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cThe climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore<br \/>\nthe long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":254205,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691822064,691818153,691822071,691818381],"class_list":{"0":"post-275457","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-mafia","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-huge-forecasts-errors","11":"tag-ipcc","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00modelsvsdata.png?fit=1920%2C1728&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-19ER","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":337086,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337086","url_meta":{"origin":275457,"position":0},"title":"Intro to Climate\u00a0Fallacies","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In GCMs, the equilibrium climate sensitivity is an \u2018emergent property\u2019 that is not directly calibrated or tuned.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/2quote-star-trek-scotty.jpg?fit=1200%2C881&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":376840,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=376840","url_meta":{"origin":275457,"position":1},"title":"Time to Defund Climate Models?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/04\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe Trump administration is cutting funding for climate research across all federal departments\u2026. Maybe it\u2019s time for NASA to stick to space exploration, NOAA to stick to weather forecasting, and for the climate models to be shut down.\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013-1536x1382-1.png?fit=1200%2C1080&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013-1536x1382-1.png?fit=1200%2C1080&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013-1536x1382-1.png?fit=1200%2C1080&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013-1536x1382-1.png?fit=1200%2C1080&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013-1536x1382-1.png?fit=1200%2C1080&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":307655,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=307655","url_meta":{"origin":275457,"position":2},"title":"Climate Change Skeptics\u2019 Arguments Are Inconvenient Facts, Won\u2019t Ever Be Refuted!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Huge data gaps, crude models, system complexity and endless unknowns frustrate climate scientists","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0sl-natural-disastors.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0sl-natural-disastors.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0sl-natural-disastors.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0sl-natural-disastors.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0sl-natural-disastors.webp?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":350755,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350755","url_meta":{"origin":275457,"position":3},"title":"Why Numerical Climate Models Fail at Long-term Climate Prediction","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"There has been a great deal of \u201cmodel bashing\u201d here and elsewhere in the blogs whenever climate model predictions are mentioned.\u00a0 This essay is\u00a0a very long\u00a0effort to cool off the more knee-jerk segment of that recurring phenomenon.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Climate-Models-63.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Climate-Models-63.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Climate-Models-63.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Climate-Models-63.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-Climate-Models-63.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":394718,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=394718","url_meta":{"origin":275457,"position":4},"title":"From Weather to Climate: Why Tribune\u2019s News Service AI Leap is a Logic Fail","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Tribune News Service article, \u201cAI is fast-tracking climate research,\u201d is misleading in its central premise. While AI can speed up certain weather data processing tasks, it does not magically make long-term climate forecasts more accurate. The piece blurs the line between short-term weather model gains and the far more\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AI (artificial intelligence)\"","block_context":{"text":"AI (artificial intelligence)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ai-artificial-intelligence-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0climate-models-epic-fail.png?fit=1200%2C931&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0climate-models-epic-fail.png?fit=1200%2C931&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0climate-models-epic-fail.png?fit=1200%2C931&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0climate-models-epic-fail.png?fit=1200%2C931&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0climate-models-epic-fail.png?fit=1200%2C931&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":333151,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=333151","url_meta":{"origin":275457,"position":5},"title":"GCMs Cannot Predict Climate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In March, my article \u201cTraffic Lights and Roundabouts \u2013 Why the Climate Models will never work\u201d was presented on WUWT. That was a somewhat light-hearted analogy between road traffic and climate, saying in essence that the techniques used in climate models wouldn\u2019t work for road traffic, so why would you\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-352.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-352.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-352.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-352.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/image-352.png?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=275457"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275457\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":275473,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275457\/revisions\/275473"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/254205"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=275457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=275457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=275457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}