{"id":275385,"date":"2023-08-24T21:55:54","date_gmt":"2023-08-24T19:55:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275385"},"modified":"2023-08-24T21:55:57","modified_gmt":"2023-08-24T19:55:57","slug":"the-blunt-truth-about-global-warming-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=275385","title":{"rendered":"The Blunt Truth about Global Warming Models"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From americanthinker.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0<\/strong>Vic Hughes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I may be one of the first scientists in the country to know that predicting long-term temperatures is not possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Almost 50 years ago, while in grad school, I had a contract from an Army research lab to use a state-of-the-art models to predict long-term temperatures.\u00a0\u00a0I quickly realized that the goal of the project, to forecast accurately the temperature long-term, was impossible because small errors in data inputs could result in huge forecasts errors.\u00a0\u00a0Equally important was that errors compounded so quickly that it caused the error ranges to explode.\u00a0\u00a0The results were junk.\u00a0\u00a0As an example, what good is a temperature forecast with an error range of plus or minus one hundred degrees?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I give university speeches to scientists and tell them: if you ever see some data or forecasts, your first question has to be “what’s the error range?”\u00a0\u00a0If you don’t know the error range, the data are almost useless.\u00a0\u00a0It’s not coincidental that the Climate Mafia don’t highlight this problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what about modern technology solving these problems?\u00a0\u00a0These error problems are still true today.\u00a0\u00a0It’s not that the long-term temperature forecasts are wrong; it’s that they can’t be right.\u00a0\u00a0All global warming modelers know this, or they are incredibly stupid, or they just lie about it for money or power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change made even a pretense of being science-based, they used to admit it.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report: <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The weather is a coupled, non-linear chaotic system.\u00a0\u00a0Chaos theory says very small changes in inputs can result in totally different outcomes.\u00a0\u00a0This concept is counterintuitive for most people.\u00a0\u00a0We intrinsically think that if you’re a little off at the beginning, you should be a little off at the end.\u00a0\u00a0Try that on a mountain trail next to a cliff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Climate Mafia know that this is true, but they still want money and power.\u00a0\u00a0They argue that even though you can’t make a real temperature forecast, they can create a completely bogus forecasting approach, where they take a bunch of different climate models that don’t agree (so much for settled science) and combine their outputs.\u00a0\u00a0They then say voil\u00e0: we have a correct prediction, and they use pseudo-statistics to get around the error problem.\u00a0\u00a0The way I visualize it is, if you take a bunch (an ensemble sounds more scientific) of wrong answers and then combine them, that is the right answer.\u00a0\u00a0Absurd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since your input data are critical to forecasting the Chaotic Future, fully understanding past temperatures is also critical.\u00a0\u00a0The Climate Mafia create the entirely bogus concept of an “average Earth temperature” to create a bogus base data set for their bogus models.\u00a0\u00a0The Warming Scammers like to use a garbage temperature history that starts about 1850.\u00a0\u00a0The Scammers say that their increased temperatures since 1850, just coincidentally at the end of a three-hundred-year cooling cycle, represent the rise of the industrial pollution age.\u00a0\u00a0In 1850, and even in 1950, only a small percentage of world’s population could even be considered close to industrialized.\u00a0\u00a0Look at India, Africa, and China then: almost medieval energy use patterns until really recently.\u00a0\u00a0Humans have been around in their current form for many tens of thousands of years.\u00a0\u00a0To say the weather since the 1850s is representative of anything from a statistical perspective is a joke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what kind of temperature data do we have since 1850?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With oceans and ice caps covering over 80+% of the world’s surface, we have virtually no reliable long-term data on any of that, other than the last few decades.\u00a0\u00a0Even then, you are talking about a relatively small number of measuring devises in all those places.\u00a0\u00a0(Do you check the weather a few hundred miles away to know if you need an umbrella?)\u00a0\u00a0How about the temperature trends in deserts, on mountains, in the middle of Africa, South America, Siberia \u2014 at sea level, a hundred feet elevation, a thousand feet elevation?\u00a0\u00a0The data are so bad in all of the Southern Hemisphere \u2014 half the globe \u2014 that there are only a few datasets even close to reliable since the 1850s.\u00a0\u00a0There are almost no real, reliable, and complete long-term data globally, and particularly none reliable enough to create model of a chaotic system entirely dependent on very accurate input data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The concept of “average Earth temperature” is critical to their bogus forecasting, but because we think “average” generally means something useful, it gets a mental pass.\u00a0\u00a0As an example, describe the “average” human.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let me offer a thought experiment.\u00a0\u00a0What is the average temperature of your house within one degree?\u00a0\u00a0How many sensors, with what degree of accuracy reading the temperature, how often, would you need to know the average temperature within one degree?\u00a0\u00a0One sensor won’t do it.\u00a0\u00a0Would ten sensors (a hundred? a thousand?) be needed to cover the ceilings, floors, six feet up, each corner of every room, near every doors and window and heat source, measuring the temperature every hour, minute, second for a period of years, to get an average temperature within one degree?\u00a0\u00a0How do you weight a gage in a big room versus a small one, or in the ceiling versus the floor?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we can’t even figure out the long-term average temperature of one building, it is complete hubris to think we can create accurate enough global temperature inputs to predict 100 years out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I won’t even get into outright data fraud, like lowering the hot 1930s or selectively changing input locations to make the current temperatures look hotter.\u00a0\u00a0The data are bad enough on their own.\u00a0\u00a0Using faulty data to predict the future creates faulty forecasts.\u00a0\u00a0Garbage in, garbage out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the greatest part of the Global Warming Scam is that it requires a complete disregard for common sense.\u00a0\u00a0We all know that weather forecasters can’t predict next week’s weather within 1 degree, but the Scammers push the lie that they can predict the temperature a hundred years from now within a degree or two.\u00a0\u00a0That literally defies credulity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More importantly, say you had perfect data and a perfect model.\u00a0\u00a0How could we possibly know what impact that will have?\u00a0\u00a0Another thought experiment: How much will temperatures vary where you live today?\u00a0\u00a0Ten degrees?\u00a0\u00a0Twenty degrees?\u00a0\u00a0Thirty?\u00a0\u00a0How much does it vary in a year?\u00a0\u00a0For most of the U.S., that number might be 50 degrees, a 100 degrees.\u00a0\u00a0So plants and animals\u00a0\u00a0have adapted to 20-degree temperatures changes in a day or 100-degree temperature changes in a year.\u00a0\u00a0Somehow a 1- or 2-degree temperature change in a hundred years is going to take them out?\u00a0\u00a0That’s ridiculous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, when somebody offers me a forecast, my first question is, how right have your other forecasts been?\u00a0\u00a0We are now in the third or fourth ten-year period of the last forty years when the world is going to end in ten years.\u00a0\u00a0That tells you all you need to know about global warming forecasting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that any counter-narratives have to be censored is also damning.\u00a0\u00a0A final fact to consider is one my mother taught me at a young age: when the other side starts calling you names (deniers, anti-vaxxers), you know they have lost the argument.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet we should totally restructure society based on those impossible models.\u00a0\u00a0This was probably the greatest scientific lie in history, and people believed it.\u00a0\u00a0After that, selling the lie that even though mRNA vaccines have never worked in thirty years and generally killed all their test subjects but are now safe and effective for humans, including babies, after two months of limited testing, is child’s play.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Goebbels, a proponent of the\u00a0“Big Lie,” would be proud about both lies.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before we restructure the world based on models, we must realize they can’t be right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":254941,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691822064,691818153,691822063],"class_list":["post-275385","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-mafia","tag-climate-models","tag-global-warming-models","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Models-v-reality-2.jpg?fit=2571%2C2000&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-19DH","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":242672,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=242672","url_meta":{"origin":275385,"position":0},"title":"AI`s Trained on Climate Models Predict Faster Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Using a simulation or model allows a large number of training runs to be packed into a short period of time, and constrains the output of the AI. 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