{"id":274612,"date":"2023-08-20T14:24:29","date_gmt":"2023-08-20T12:24:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=274612"},"modified":"2023-08-20T14:25:28","modified_gmt":"2023-08-20T12:25:28","slug":"arctic-amplification-not-what-you-think-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=274612","title":{"rendered":"Arctic \u201cAmplification\u201d Not What You\u00a0Think"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

HT to Dr. David Whitehouse writing at GWPF regarding a recent study claiming Arctic Amplification is causing a wavey polar vortex, resulting in winter warming and cooling extremes.\u00a0 His critique is\u00a0Extreme cold snaps and global warming: A speculative explanation<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This post is challenging the notion of Arctic Amplification itself.  The term is bandied about with the connotation that man-made global warming is multiplied in the Arctic and responsible for weather extremes.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

As the animation above shows, there have been in recent years alternating patterns of unusually cold or warm weather in the Northern Hemisphere.  There are several problems in the attempt to link these events to global warming\/climate change, i.e. claiming causation from a slow increase in baseline global average temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Arctic Amplification is an artifact of Temperature Anomalies<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Arctic Surface Stations Records Show Ordinary Warming<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Arctic Warmth Comes from Meridional Heat Transport, not CO2<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
    \"\"
    Clive Best provides this animation of recent monthly temperature anomalies which demonstrates how most variability in anomalies occur over northern continents.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1. Arctic Amplification is an artifact of Temperature Anomalies<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

    Beyond the issues with the measurements and the questionable adjustments, there is a more fundamental misconception about air temperatures in relation to \u201cclimate change.\u201d Clive Best does a fine job explaining why Global Mean Temperature anomalies do not mean what people think. Below is my synopsis of his recent essay entitled\u00a0Do Global Temperatures make sense?<\/a>\u00a0(link)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Background: Earth\u2019s Heat Imbalance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"
    ERBE measurements of radiative imbalance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The earth\u2019s temperature at any location is never in equilibrium. It changes daily, seasonally and annually. Incoming solar radiation varies enormously especially near the poles which receive more energy per day in summer than the equator.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The earth cools primarily by moving heat from hot tropical regions towards high latitudes where net IR radiation loss cools the planet, thus maintaining a certain temperature profile.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Key Point: GMT Anomalies Are Dominated by the Highest Latitudes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The main problem with all the existing observational datasets\u00a0is\u00a0that they don\u2019t actually measure the global temperature at all. Instead they\u00a0measure the global average temperature \u2018anomaly\u2019. . .The use of anomalies\u00a0introduces a new bias because they are now dominated by the larger \u2018anomalies\u2019 occurring at cold places in high latitudes. The reason for this is obvious, because\u00a0all extreme\u00a0seasonal variations in temperature occur in northern continents, with the exception of Antarctica. Increases in anomalies are mainly due to an increase in\u00a0the minimum winter temperatures, especially near\u00a0the arctic circle.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    To take an extreme example here is the monthly temperature data and calculated anomalies for Verkoyhansk in Siberia. Annual temperatures vary from -50C in winter to +20C in summer. That is a seasonal range of 70C each year, and a year to year anomaly variation of ~8C is normal. The only global warming effect evident is a slight increase in the minimum winter temperatures since 1900. That is not due to any localised enhanced greenhouse effect but rather to an enhanced meridional heat transport. Temperatures in equatorial regions meanwhile\u00a0have only\u00a0~4C seasonal variations, and show\u00a0essentially no warming trend.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2. Arctic Surface Stations Records Show Ordinary Warming<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"
    Locations of 118 arctic stations examined in this study and compared to observations at 50 European stations whose records averaged 200 years and in a few cases extend to the early 1700s<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    A recent extensive analysis of Northern surface temperature records gives no support for Arctic \u201camplification\u201d fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Arctic has warmed at the same rate as Europe over the past two centuries. Heretofore, it has been supposed that any global warming would be amplified in the Arctic. This may still be true if urban heat island effects are responsible for part of the observed temperature increase at European stations. However, European and Arctic temperatures have remained closely synchronized for over 200 years during the rapid growth of urban centres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    And the warming pattern in Europe and the Arctic is familiar and unalarming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Arctic temperatures have increased during the period 1820\u2013 2014. The\u00a0warming has been larger in January than in July.<\/strong>\u00a0Siberia, Alaska and Western Canada appear to have warmed slightly more than Eastern Canada, Greenland, Iceland and Northern Europe. The warming\u00a0has not occurred at a steady rate.<\/strong>\u00a0Much of the warming trends found during 1820 to 2014 occurred in the late 1990s, and the data show temperatures levelled off after 2000. The\u00a0July temperature trend is even slightly negative for the period 1820\u20131990.<\/strong>\u00a0The time series exhibit multidecadal temperature fluctuations which have also been found by other temperature reconstructions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The paper is:\u00a0Arctic temperature trends from the early nineteenth century to the present<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0W. A. van Wijngaarden, Theoretical & Applied Climatology (2015).\u00a0 My synopsis:\u00a0Arctic Warming Unalarming<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    3. Arctic Warmth Comes from Meridional Heat Transport, not CO2<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Key Point: Heat Distribution Changes, not Global Temperatures<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Rising CO2 levels modify that radiation imbalance profile slightly. Surface temperatures in the tropics are not really warming at all. Any excess heat induces more clouds and more convection while surface temperatures remain constant. What really happens is that the meridional radiation profile changes. Slightly more heat is transported polewards so that hot places are shifting more heat to cold places which are doing the warming. If CO2 levels stop rising then a new temperature and radiation profile would rather quickly be reached. This is then called \u2018climate change\u2019 but any such changes are concentrated in colder regions of the world. The global \u2018temperature\u2019 itself is not changing, but instead the global distribution of temperature is changing.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Key Point: More Atmospheric Heat means Warming in the Coldest Places<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Temperatures at the poles during 6 months of darkness would fall well below -150C if there was no atmosphere, similar to the moon. Instead heat is constantly being transported from lower latitudes by the atmosphere and ocean and so that temperatures never fall much below -43C. If more heat is transported northwards than previously, then minimum temperatures must rise, and this is what we observe in individual measurements.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Long term changes in temperature anomalies occur mainly in northern continents in winter months. This is not because the earth as a whole is warming up but rather that meridional heat transport from the equator to the poles has increased and the largest effect on \u2018anomalies occurs in winter. The average absolute temperature of the earth\u2019s surface is unknown. Basing the evidence for climate change on the 150 year trend in global averaged temperature anomalies still biases the result towards higher latitudes where most of the stations are located.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    When heat is released into the atmosphere from the oceans, it is transported toward the poles to dissipate into space. Places in higher latitudes are warmed, not by radiative effects of greenhouse gases in those locales, but by the incursion of warmer air from the equator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    What happens if more CO2 is added into the atmosphere? No one knows, but there are many opinions, a popular one being that more heat is retained in the atmosphere. But in that case, that additional heat will be shed by the planet in exactly the same manner: transport to the poles with slightly less extremely cold air at the higher latitudes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Why in the world would we pay anything to prevent a little bit of warming in the world\u2019s coldest places?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Clive Best takes the analysis further and relates to work by Christopher Scotese in a later post\u00a0Fact: Future Climate Will Be Flatter, not Hotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    More explanation at\u00a0The Climate Water Wheel<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Resources:\u00a0\u00a0Bill Gray: H20 is Climate Control Knob, not CO2<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    No, CO2 Doesn\u2019t Drive the Polar Vortex (Updated)<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Quantifying Natural Climate Change<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Update September 24, 2022 Richard Lindzen Weighs In<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    H\/T Not A Lot of People Know That<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    London, 23 September \u2013 A prominent climate scientist has warned that the picture of climate change presented in the IPCC\u2019s narrative is simplistic, ill-conceived, and undermined by observational evidence.<\/strong>
    In a new\u00a0<\/em>    discussion paper<\/em><\/strong><\/a>, Professor Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) points out that the official picture, focusing narrowly on carbon dioxide as a warming agent, becomes implausible when applied to the details of the climate system.\u00a0 According to Lindzen,<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cIf you are going to blame everything on carbon dioxide, you have to explain why, on all timescales, temperatures in the tropics are extremely stable while those in high latitudes are much more variable. The IPCC\u2019s story is that small amounts of greenhouse warming near the equator are \u2018amplified\u2019 at high latitudes. But neither theory nor data support the idea of amplification.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Instead, says Lindzen, this pattern \u2013 of stable tropical temperatures and fluctuating ones in high latitudes \u2013 is mostly a function of natural processes in the atmosphere and oceans; in other words, changes in oceanic and atmospheric currents that transport heat poleward while drawing varying amounts of heat out of the tropics.\u00a0 These changes in transport affect the tropics, but they are not determined by the tropics.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cThe changes in the earth\u2019s so-called temperature are mainly due to changes in the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles \u2013 at least for major changes.\u00a0 The changes in tropical temperature, which are influenced by greenhouse processes, are a minor contribution.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Richard Lindzen:\u00a0An assessment of the conventional global warming narrative (pdf)<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n