{"id":274488,"date":"2023-08-19T16:07:26","date_gmt":"2023-08-19T14:07:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=274488"},"modified":"2023-08-19T16:07:29","modified_gmt":"2023-08-19T14:07:29","slug":"doubts-about-droughts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=274488","title":{"rendered":"Doubts About Droughts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commentary by Kip Hansen \u2014 17 August 2023<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Let\u2019s talk about droughts.\u00a0 Unfortunately, to do that, we\u2019d have to understand what droughts are.\u00a0 And that understanding doesn\u2019t come easy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDrought is a complex phenomenon which is difficult to monitor and define. Depending on the variables used to characterize it and the systems or sectors being impacted, drought may be classified in different types such as meteorological (precipitation deficits), agricultural (e.g. crop yield reductions or crop failure, related to soil moisture deficits), ecological (related to plant water stress that causes e.g. tree mortality) or hydrological droughts (e.g. water shortage in streams or storages such as reservoirs, lakes, lagoons and groundwater).\u201d Alimonti (2022) (currently threatened with retraction due to\u00a0unscientific pressure from the Climate Crisis Gang<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or, according to the\u00a0National Geographic<\/a>:\u00a0 \u201cDrought is a complicated\u00a0phenomenon, and can be hard to define. One difficulty is that drought means different things in different regions. A drought is defined depending on the average amount of precipitation that an area is accustomed to receiving.\u201d\u2026 \u201cA drought in Atlanta could be a very wet period in Phoenix, Arizona!\u201d\u00a0 \u00a0(National Geographic isn\u2019t threatened with retraction\u2026though many of its entertainment articles \u2013 masquerading as \u2018science\u2019 \u2014 \u00a0should be. NatGeo is\u00a0owned by the entertainment arm of Disney Corporation.<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are at least\u00a011 types of droughts<\/em>\u00a0mentioned at\u00a0aginfo.in<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The end result of this situation is that there is no single metric capable of determining or representing the presence or absence of drought.\u00a0 Thus, measuring or quantifying something as vague as \u201cnumber of droughts globally\u201d or \u201cpercentage of the world under drought\u201d becomes almost impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just to give a taste of the sources of possible confusion about droughts, the\u00a0WestWide Drought Tracker<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>currently offers the following drought \u00a0images for the western Unites States,\u00a0all for July 2023<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The maps all seem to agree that it has been or is droughty in the Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Northern Idaho) but there is little agreement elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, when we want to write about \u201cThe Drought\u201d in California?\u00a0 Which of these should we use? Which of these did your local newspaper or weather broadcaster use?\u00a0 How and why did he chose that particular one?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u00a0is possible<\/em>\u00a0to dig in and find out what each different image is telling us but it is not easy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What about the\u00a0U.S. Drought Monitor<\/a>? \u00a0They offer this view:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The two maps are pretty similar, the upper one has the state boundaries and the lower has areas by Drought Intensity and Drought Impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it is difficult to find even one of the WestWide Drought Tracker views that look like either of the U.S. Drought Monitor views.\u00a0 Yet they are for the same period (WestWide charts are only a week later than the end of July). How can this be?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Isn\u2019t drought\u00a0obvious<\/em>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0U.S. Drought Monitor [USDM] site<\/a>\u00a0tells us this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHow do we know when we\u2019re in a drought?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen you think about drought, you probably think about water\u2014or the lack of it. Precipitation plays a major role in the creation of the Drought Monitor, but the map\u2019s authors consider many data sources. Some of the numeric inputs include precipitation, streamflow, reservoir levels, temperature and evaporative demand, soil moisture and vegetation health. No single piece of evidence tells the full story, and neither do strictly physical indicators. That\u2019s why the USDM isn\u2019t a statistical model; it\u2019s a blend of these physical indicators with drought impacts, field observations and local insight from a network of more than 450 experts. Using many different types of data and reconciling them with expert interpretation is what makes the USDM unique. We call it a convergence of evidence approach.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s be clear:\u00a0 There are some numerical inputs (things that have been measured).\u00a0 There are many subjective inputs:\u00a0 vegetative health, field observations, local insight. \u00a0Apparently, there are some indicators that are not\u00a0\u201cstrictly physical\u201d\u00a0<\/em>that are considered.\u00a0 (What these could possibly be, regarding drought, is a mystery to me\u2026maybe\u00a0emotional indicators<\/em>?) \u00a0\u00a0All that is then subjected to \u201cexpert interpretation\u201d producing \u201ca convergence of evidence\u201d.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>I don\u2019t mean this as a criticism \u2013 I\u2019m simply telling you what the USDM says their maps represent.\u00a0 Maybe this is in response to the problems and confusion caused by the 12 images using differing indices changing over time periods from WestWide?\u00a0 Is it better to have one-drought-image-to-rule-them-all?\u00a0 I don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And what\u00a0is<\/em>\u00a0the WestWide Drought Tracker?\u00a0 It is brought to us by the University of Idaho, the Western Regional Climate Center, and the Desert Research Institute.\u00a0 They offer many standardized drought indices, each of which is explained on their\u00a0Overview page<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0 Their site offers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What products are available on WWDT? (via\u00a0this page<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Drought Indices (links below are to additional explainers for each)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Palmer Drought Severity In<\/a>d<\/a>ex (PDSI)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Palmer Z-Index<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Data (via\u00a0this page<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Temperature Data and Anomaly (from 1981-2010 normals)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Temperature Percentiles<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Precipitation Data and Anomaly (from 1981-2010 normals)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Precipitation Percentiles<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

All these are involved with the\u00a0idea<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0of drought.\u00a0 All of them have caveats, for instance: They note that for the Palmer Indices, particularly PDSI,\u00a0 \u201cSnow and its effects are not represented<\/em>.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0NCAR says<\/a>\u00a0the PDSI \u201cDoes not account for snow or ice (delayed runoff); assumes precipitation is immediately available<\/em>\u201d.\u00a0 We must remember, they are indicies, each one is an index.\u00a0 All of the indices are calculations, various models, with multiple inputs, many of which are not measurements but parameters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat is index in a research project?\u00a0 An index is a composite measure of variables, or a way of measuring a construct\u2026.using more than one data item. An index is an accumulation of scores from a variety of individual items.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>[source<\/a>] Or \u201cAn index is a type of measure that contains several indicators and is used to summarize some more general concept<\/em>.\u201d [source<\/a>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, an index is a numerical scaling created by combining various factors believed to be integral to the concept \u2013 in this case: drought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NCAR claims<\/a>\u00a0that \u201cMaps of the monthly self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (SCPDSI) have been calculated for the period 1901\u20132002 for the contiguous United States (20\u00b0\u201350\u00b0N and 130\u00b0\u201360\u00b0W) and Europe (35\u00b0\u201370\u00b0N, 10\u00b0W\u201360\u00b0E) with a spatial resolution of 0.5\u00b0 \u00d7 0.5\u00b0<\/em>\u201d.\u00a0 The procedure for calculating the SCPDSI (sometimes sc-PDSI) for any location is given\u00a0in this paper<\/a>\u00a0(see section 2, second paragraph). \u00a0Count the number of assumed values, parameters, non-measured factors.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Raise your hand if you think that climatic records accurate enough for this procedure have been carefully and continuously kept at a\u00a0spatial resolution of<\/em>\u00a05\u00b0\u00a0<\/em>for the entire United States since 1901.\u00a0\u00a0 How about\u00a0for the entire world<\/a>?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the present day, we are being told \u201cHuman-induced climate change has contributed to increases in agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions due to evapotranspiration increases (medium confidence).<\/strong>\u201d\u00a0\u00a0IPCC AR6 Chapter 11<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With our present confusion in measuring of drought and droughts, it is no surprise that the IPCC has only\u00a0medium confidence\u00a0<\/em>in the above statement and limits its cause to\u00a0evapotranspiration<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0increases\u00a0<\/strong>and to\u00a0 some regions.\u00a0<\/strong>(Is medium confidence a \u201cmaybe\u201d, a \u201cmight be\u201d or a \u201cprobably\u201d?)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, I have my doubts about droughts.\u00a0 I have doubts that we can accurately \u2018measure\u2019 them on any scale other than locally.\u00a0 We\u00a0can<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0tell when an entire region is in a desperate drought \u2013 like the\u00a0Hor<\/a>n<\/a>\u00a0of Africa<\/a>\u00a0has\u00a0currently causing famine<\/a>\u00a0or the Southwest U.S. which has been experiencing various levels of drought on a long-term scale but even there, in the desert, some<\/em>\u00a0of our indices (SPIs) show a lack of drought. For example, \u00a0in Arizona.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is\u00a0no line solidly enough drawn<\/a>\u00a0\u2013\u00a0no strict definition<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 no single dependable scientific metric \u2014 that we can use to allow us to determine if there are more or fewer droughts or wider areas of drought \u00ad\u2013 the definitions and even the indices are far too ambiguous for use in any real scientific manner.\u00a0 Mapping and analyzing various indices cannot tell us very much about the world. We can say this or that \u00a0index is trending up or down but the indices are not real world conditions, the indices are not droughts \u2014 they can tell us\u00a0something<\/em>, but cannot answer a question such as:\u00a0\u00a0Are there more droughts globally now than in the past?\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same issue affects a lot climate research and data sets.\u00a0 We see graphs and charts of things that are not \u201creal\u201d, not physical \u2014 they are like the drought indices, blends of some measurements, some maths, some statistics and some expert interpretations.\u00a0\u00a0 I am sorry but these are not truly proper fodder for scientific study.\u00a0 Strict science requires actually measuring the thing of interest\u2026not something \u201csort of like it\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And we see vast, huge, \u00a0enormous amounts of time spent analyzing these data sets, many of which cannot possibly be accurate representations of what they are claimed to be.\u00a0 This is as simple as a single weather station\u2019s\u00a0Daily Average Temperature<\/em>\u00a0\u2013 it is not the average of the day\u2019s temperature readings at all but the median of the instantaneous high and low.\u00a0 This erroneous data is blended into regional and\/or national data bases which then are further averaged, krigged, etc. into even more synthetic data which is also not what it claims to be.\u00a0 On and on\u2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The moral of the story: keep your eyes open and make sure you ask\u00a0exactly what has been measured<\/a><\/em>,\u00a0if it was\u00a0measured<\/em>\u00a0at all, and make sure that you know the implications of the answers those questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Let\u2019s talk about droughts.\u00a0 Unfortunately, to do that, we\u2019d have to understand what droughts are.\u00a0 And that understanding doesn\u2019t come easy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":274504,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691819069,691818381],"class_list":{"0":"post-274488","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-droughts","10":"tag-ipcc","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-792.png?fit=1920%2C1200&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-19pe","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":214680,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=214680","url_meta":{"origin":274488,"position":0},"title":"DEBUNKED: Europe\u2019s claimed \u2018worst drought in 500 years\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Looking to future, at temperature changes of 2C and more, at present the IPCC does not expect the current state of scientific understandings to change.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0image-87.png?fit=823%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0image-87.png?fit=823%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0image-87.png?fit=823%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0image-87.png?fit=823%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":214686,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=214686","url_meta":{"origin":274488,"position":1},"title":"DEBUNKED: Europe\u2019s claimed \u2018worst drought in 500 years\u2019 \u2013 Peer-reviewed studies, data & IPCC reveal \u2018drought has not increased\u2019 & \u2018cannot be attributed to human-caused climate change\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The only exception here is that the IPCC has medium confidence in an increasing trend of soil moisture deficits in some subregions, however the IPCC has low confidence that this trend can be attributed to human-caused climate change.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-875.png?fit=659%2C331&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-875.png?fit=659%2C331&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-875.png?fit=659%2C331&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":214027,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=214027","url_meta":{"origin":274488,"position":2},"title":"Yahoo and AP are Wrong About Northeastern Drought","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"An Associated Press (AP) story picked up by Yahoo News that claims that climate change is causing a trend towards hotter, drier summers and drought in the Northeastern United States. 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