{"id":274156,"date":"2023-08-17T18:17:07","date_gmt":"2023-08-17T16:17:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=274156"},"modified":"2023-08-17T18:17:32","modified_gmt":"2023-08-17T16:17:32","slug":"hunga-tonga-its-role-in-rising-global-temperatures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=274156","title":{"rendered":"Hunga Tonga &amp; Its Role In Rising Global\u00a0Temperatures"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" data-attachment-id=\"274163\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=274163\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1920,1080\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0.jpg?fit=723%2C407&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0.jpg?resize=723%2C407&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-274163\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0.jpg?resize=1024%2C576&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0.jpg?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0.jpg?resize=768%2C432&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0.jpg?resize=1536%2C864&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0.jpg?resize=1200%2C675&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0.jpg?w=1920&amp;ssl=1 1920w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0.jpg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com\/\">NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">h\/t Ian Cunningham<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Amidst all of the hysteria about the rise in global temperatures this year and claims of hottest months, there has been remarkably little discussion of the role played by the eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano last year:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"273\" data-attachment-id=\"274158\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=274158\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-742.png?fit=1024%2C387&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1024,387\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-742\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-742.png?fit=723%2C273&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-742.png?resize=723%2C273&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-274158\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-742.png?w=1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-742.png?resize=300%2C113&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-742.png?resize=768%2C290&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The huge amount of water vapor hurled into the atmosphere, as detected by NASA\u2019s Microwave Limb Sounder, could end up temporarily warming Earth\u2019s surface.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai volcano\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpl.nasa.gov\/news\/tonga-eruption-sent-ripples-through-earths-ionosphere\"><em>erupted<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0on Jan. 15, it sent a tsunami racing around the world and set off a sonic boom that circled the globe twice. The underwater eruption in the South Pacific Ocean also blasted an enormous plume of water vapor into Earth\u2019s stratosphere \u2013 enough to fill more than 58,000 Olympic-size swimming pools. The sheer amount of water vapor could be enough to temporarily affect Earth\u2019s global average temperature.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cWe\u2019ve never seen anything like it,\u201d said Luis Mill\u00e1n, an atmospheric scientist at NASA\u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. He led a new study examining the amount of water vapor that the Tonga volcano injected into the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere between about 8 and 33 miles (12 and 53 kilometers) above Earth\u2019s surface.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>In the\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1029\/2022GL099381\"><em>study<\/em><\/a><em>, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Mill\u00e1n and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth\u2019s stratosphere \u2013 equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. That\u2019s nearly four times the amount of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/earthobservatory.nasa.gov\/images\/1510\/global-effects-of-mount-pinatubo\"><em>Mount Pinatubo eruption<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0in the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Mill\u00e1n analyzed data from the\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/mls.jpl.nasa.gov\/\"><em>Microwave Limb Sounder<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0(MLS) instrument on NASA\u2019s\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/aura.gsfc.nasa.gov\/\"><em>Aura<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0satellite, which measures atmospheric gases, including water vapor and ozone. After the Tonga volcano erupted, the MLS team started seeing water vapor readings that were off the charts. \u201cWe had to carefully inspect all the measurements in the plume to make sure they were trustworthy,\u201d said Mill\u00e1n.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Volcanic eruptions rarely inject much water into the stratosphere. In the 18 years that NASA has been taking measurements, only two other eruptions \u2013 the 2008\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/earthobservatory.nasa.gov\/images\/event\/20335\/aleutian-islandsrsquo-kasatochi-volcano-erupts'\"><em>Kasatochi event<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0in Alaska and the 2015\u00a0<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/earthobservatory.nasa.gov\/images\/85767\/calbuco-volcano-erupts\"><em>Calbuco eruption<\/em><\/a><em>\u00a0in Chile \u2013 sent appreciable amounts of water vapor to such high altitudes. But those were mere blips compared to the Tonga event, and the water vapor from both previous eruptions dissipated quickly. The excess water vapor injected by the Tonga volcano, on the other hand, could remain in the stratosphere for several years.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This extra water vapor could influence atmospheric chemistry, boosting certain chemical reactions that could temporarily worsen depletion of the ozone layer. It could also influence surface temperatures. Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth\u2019s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn\u2019t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat. The effect would dissipate when the extra water vapor cycles out of the stratosphere and would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The sheer amount of water injected into the stratosphere was likely only possible because the underwater volcano\u2019s caldera \u2013 a basin-shaped depression usually formed after magma erupts or drains from a shallow chamber beneath the volcano \u2013 was at just the right depth in the ocean: about 490 feet (150 meters) down. Any shallower, and there wouldn\u2019t have been enough seawater superheated by the erupting magma to account for the stratospheric water vapor values Mill\u00e1n and his colleagues saw. Any deeper, and the immense pressures in the ocean\u2019s depths could have muted the eruption.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpl.nasa.gov\/news\/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere\">https:\/\/www.jpl.nasa.gov\/news\/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-videopress\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe title=\"VideoPress Video Player\" aria-label='VideoPress Video Player' width='723' height='482' src='https:\/\/videopress.com\/embed\/87E8RenD?cover=1&amp;loop=1&amp;preloadContent=metadata&amp;useAverageColor=1&amp;hd=1' frameborder='0' allowfullscreen data-resize-to-parent=\"true\" allow='clipboard-write'><\/iframe><script src='https:\/\/v0.wordpress.com\/js\/next\/videopress-iframe.js?m=1674852142'><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By any account, this eruption was off the charts when compared with any other eruption since we began studying these things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to the Millan paper, the radiative forcing from this plume of water vapour was about two thirds of the CO2 growth between 1996 and 2005.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Water vapour is of course the primary GHG, and there can be no question that the eruption has increased global temperatures, and will continue to do for some years to come, as the plume is expected to only slowly dissipate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Questions have been raised as to why we are only seeing the effect a year after the eruption. There are two very good reasons for this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1) La Nina last year helped to offset any temperature rise from Hunga Tonga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2) For the months following the eruption, the cooling effect of aerosols tended to offset the warming effect of the water vapour. Gradually however these aerosols have since dropped out of the atmosphere, and now there is nothing to offset the water vapour effect. Remember that global temperatures fell by about 0.5C following Pinatubo.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The aerosol effect of Hunga Tonga would not have been as great as Pinatubo\u2019s, but it is still likely to have been significant. By definition then, the water vapour effect must be equally significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is perfectly likely that the rise in temperatures this year can all be explained by a combination of Hunga Tonga and El Nino.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What I find remarkable about this, if unsurprising, is how there has been virtually no public discussion of this, as far as I can see anyway. Instead climate scientists seem to want to brush it under the carpet, and blame rising temperatures on \u201cclimate change\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The aerosol effect of Hunga Tonga would not have been as great as Pinatubo\u2019s, but it is still likely to have been significant. By definition then, the water vapour effect must be equally significant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":274163,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818272,691821902,691821547,691821580],"class_list":{"0":"post-274156","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-hysteria","9":"tag-global-temperatures-2","10":"tag-hunga-tonga-2","11":"tag-south-pacific-ocean","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/01092315223_0_369_2329_1679_1920x0_80_0_0_c51c18c0999e6a2c90dd74040b754dc0.jpg?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-19jS","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":365515,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365515","url_meta":{"origin":274156,"position":0},"title":"EXCLUSIVE: Sensational Findings Point to Hunga Tonga Eruption as Prime Suspect Behind Recent Temperature Spike","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In January 2022, a massive underwater volcano called Hunga Tonga suddenly erupted and shot so much water into the upper atmosphere that levels in the stratosphere rose suddenly by at least 10%. It was a genuine one in 100, even 200-year event and was reasonably expected to produce temporary weather\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":339847,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339847","url_meta":{"origin":274156,"position":1},"title":"\u201cWe should have better answers by now\u201d: Broken Climate Models Can\u2019t even Explain the Recent Warm Bump","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"If climate models can\u2019t even get heat spikes right, what use are they?","rel":"","context":"In \"2023 temperature anomaly\"","block_context":{"text":"2023 temperature anomaly","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023-temperature-anomaly"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":353780,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=353780","url_meta":{"origin":274156,"position":2},"title":"Did Fewer Clouds Contribute to This Year\u2019s Global Warming?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Some scientists are at a loss to explain the 2024 heat bump, 0.2C above what models predicted.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0-Hunga-Tonga-45.webp?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":300184,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300184","url_meta":{"origin":274156,"position":3},"title":"Hunga Tonga-Hunga eruption sent enough water vapor into the stratosphere to cause a rapid change in chemistry","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai volcano on January 15, 2022, produced the largest underwater explosion ever recorded by modern scientific instruments, blasting an enormous amount of water and volcanic gases higher than any other eruption in the satellite era.","rel":"","context":"In \"Earth\u2019s stratosphere\"","block_context":{"text":"Earth\u2019s 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