{"id":273704,"date":"2023-08-15T16:49:59","date_gmt":"2023-08-15T14:49:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=273704"},"modified":"2023-08-15T16:50:18","modified_gmt":"2023-08-15T14:50:18","slug":"no-the-conversation-climate-change-isnt-increasing-earthquakes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=273704","title":{"rendered":"No, \u2018The Conversation,\u2019 Climate Change Isn\u2019t Increasing Earthquakes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Anthony Watts<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A story posted in The Conversation, and\u00a0distributed by MSN News<\/a>, claims that climate change is influencing the number of earthquakes. Data shows this is false. The study was so limited in scope it isn\u2019t representative of climate change either by reach or time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article,\u00a0\u201cScientists Find a Possible Connection Between\u00a0Climate\u00a0Change and Earthquake Risk<\/a>\u201d claims that seasonal monsoons from India, which produce snow and ice in the Himalayan Mountain range, set the stage for Earthquakes when the water drains, and the ice melts \u2013 which relieves surface pressure from the weight of the ice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While loss of ice and water weight may in fact result in some small tremors as water evaporates and ice melts, causing a rebound of the land due to the removed weight, the article is severely flawed in trying to link these events to climate change to them for several reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, this study covers just a small region of the Earth. Climate change is a global phenomenon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, the time-period involved in the study, 17 years, isn\u2019t long enough to establish any sort of a climate connection whatsoever, because the minimum time required to establish a climate period is 30 years,\u00a0according to the World Meteorological Organization<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Climate, sometimes understood as the \u201caverage weather,\u201d\u00a0is defined as the measurement of the mean and variability of relevant quantities of certain variables (such as temperature, precipitation or wind) over a period of time, ranging from months to thousands or millions of years.\u00a0The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The monsoon has impacted moisture in Himalayan mountains for time immemorial. Monsoon patterns have not changed appreciably over the past 17 years. So there is no reason why a seasonal weather pattern, that has occurred across millennia, would suddenly start causing earthquakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, monsoonal moisture is a\u00a0weather event, not a climate event<\/a>, spanning weeks to months instead of the decades that climate change is observed over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fourth, and most important, looking at major earthquake data, with values over 7.5 on the Richter Scale (the ones that do the worst damage) on a global scale yields a downward trend as seen in Figure 1 below\u00a0from Roger Pielke, Jr. PhD.<\/a>\u00a0The figure shows\u00a0data<\/a>\u00a0from the U.S. Geological Survey for all earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 or greater since 2000. Over that period there was a decrease in these major earthquakes. Four of the past 6 years saw 4 or less magnitude 7.5 or greater earthquakes, while the previous 17 years before that only saw 3 such years. Of course, impacts depend not just on how strong it is, but also where the earthquakes occur and the infrastructure of that region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1. Global earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 or greater since the years 200o. Data from USGS, trend line by Roger Pielke Jr.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

That data set doesn\u2019t cover 30 years, but it does cover a time period 5 years longer than the study cited by MSN\/The Conversation. To get a true climate change comparison, 50 years of global data will do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An article in the\u00a0Times-Standard<\/em>\u00a0asks:\u00a0Are there more earthquakes now than 50 years ago?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Global seismic detection has improved in the past 50 years\u00a0and so we see more smaller quakes in the catalog. But the network in the \u201960s was good enough to record the bigger quakes and restricting the analysis to M6 and larger is a better way to approach the increase question. There is variability but no trend.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The becomes clear when you look at Figure 2 below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 2. A chart graphing USGS data points show the number of large earthquakes \u2014 those greater than or equal to an M6 \u2014 over a 50-year span.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, the global authority on earthquakes, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS),\u00a0answered the question<\/a>\u00a0with data all the way back to 1900, saying:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

A temporary increase or decrease in seismicity is part of the normal fluctuation of earthquake rates. Neither an increase nor decrease worldwide is a positive indication that a large earthquake is imminent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0ComCat earthquake catalog<\/a>\u00a0contains an increasing number of earthquakes in recent years\u2013not because there are more earthquakes, but because there are more seismic instruments and they are able to record more earthquakes.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Just like with weather events that are now immediately reported to news media via cellphones, due to improved and widespread technology, we can now see more earthquakes than ever before. As USGS said, that doesn\u2019t mean they are increasing due to any factors, be it the state of our naturally restless Earth, which has about\u00a055 per day, or 20,000 earthquakes per year<\/a>\u00a0or so-called climate change effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Focusing on a small region of the world, for just a few years, as this study did, is insufficient to make valid long-term claims about the impact of global climate change on earthquakes or any other phenomenon. This study and the media coverage of it is more proof of the willingness of climate alarmists to link every\u00a0phenomenon to climate change<\/a>, no matter how absurd the connection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More rain, climate change. Less rain, climate change. Stronger monsoons, climate change, weaker monsoons, climate change. Climate change causes\u00a0crime<\/a>,\u00a0mental illness and substance abuse<\/a>,\u00a0sports injuries<\/a>, and now earthquakes. As Climate Depot decried in June,\u00a0Climate Change causes everything<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This study, like others linking climate change to non-climactic events with no direct connection to weather or temperatures over time is just one more junk climate science claim that would be laughable, if so many people weren\u2019t being led to believe its false claims and call for action restricting fundamental freedoms. The Conversation and MSN are collaborators in an anti-science, anti-progress, and anti-human agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A story posted in The Conversation, and\u00a0distributed by MSN News, claims that climate change is influencing the number of earthquakes. Data shows this is false. The study was so limited in scope it isn\u2019t representative of climate change either by reach or time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":273717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691820468,691821854,691821138],"class_list":{"0":"post-273704","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-earthquakes","10":"tag-the-conversation","11":"tag-world-meteorological-organization-wmo","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-624.png?fit=1440%2C810&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-19cA","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":283319,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283319","url_meta":{"origin":273704,"position":0},"title":"Earthquakes Blamed on Humans in New Climate Alarm Letter from Pope Francis","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/14\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Pope Francis is the religious leader of the climate church. 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