{"id":273650,"date":"2023-08-15T15:23:36","date_gmt":"2023-08-15T13:23:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=273650"},"modified":"2023-08-15T15:23:39","modified_gmt":"2023-08-15T13:23:39","slug":"the-origin-of-the-hawaii-fires-preventing-a-similar-tragedy-in-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=273650","title":{"rendered":"The Origin of the Hawaii Fires\/Preventing a Similar Tragedy in the Future"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cliff Mass<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The terrible fires around Lahaina, Maui have resulted in a death toll of 67 (which will certainly rise) and an economic loss of billions of dollars.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We can take steps to prevent this from happening again, including understanding why this event occurred and building the observation, warning, and action infrastructure as California.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why did this event occur?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The origin of this disaster is now becoming clear:\u00a0 massive amounts of dry, dead fuel (mainly grass), strong downslope winds produced by strong trades interacting with local mountains, and human ignition, most probably from powerlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dry grass and shrubs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maui was a tinderbox ready to burn explosively.\u00a0 As noted in a\u00a0number of articles<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Hawaiian government websites<\/a>, a large portion of Hawaii is covered by highly flammable, invasive, non-native grasses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Flying into Maui in late June.\u00a0\u00a0
Dry grass everywhere (looking north along the West Coast of Maui)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Western Maui is typically wet in the winter and quite dry (and warm) during summer (see plot for a station near and north of Lahaina).\u00a0 Grass grows during the winter and then dies\/cures during the summer, leaving brown desiccated grass.\u00a0 This is not climate change…this is the normal situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This year the winter was particularly wet, enhancing Maui grass volume,\u00a0 followed by a dry summer.\u00a0 A huge supply of dead fuel was ready to burn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There has been a lot of talk in the media about drought and even “flash drought” driven by climate change (see Seattle Times headline below).\u00a0\u00a0This is all silly and irrelevant.<\/strong>\u00a0 The opposite of drought last winter resulted in lots of grass and even a normal summer would have resulted in the grass ready to burn now.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also important is that the grasses are\u00a0 1-10hr fuels that dry within hours under the proper conditions (low relative humidity, winds, sun).\u00a0 The conditions earlier this week were optimal for drying with warm, dry, downslope flow.\u00a0 The grasses could have been drenched a few days before and burned under such conditions.\u00a0 Climate change is irrelevant in this situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Winds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lahaina was hit by powerful winds, with gusts exceeding 60 mph.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Winds that provided oxygen to the fires, pushed the fire quickly forward, and downed powerlines, helping spark the fires.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a lot of talk about the winds coming from hurricane Dora, which passed\u00a0800 km to the south of Hawaii\u00a0<\/strong>(see satellite image below).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The winds that hit Lahaina were NOT hurricane winds.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The winds that helped destroy Lahaina were caused by strong trade winds, produced mainly by enhanced high pressure to the north,\u00a0interacting with Maui terrain to produce strong\/dry downslope winds.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These were localized strong winds that amazingly were well predicted by the NOAA HRRR model and others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Hurricane Dora was a small storm that passed well south of Hawaii. The strong winds of the hurricane did not significantly affect Hawaii as some claim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
NOAA map of the path of strong winds from Hurricane Dora<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

During the last day UW Research Scientist David Ovens, a member of my research group, ran the WRF weather prediction model at high resolution for this case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The results are stunning.<\/strong>\u00a0 Below is the 27h forecast of wind gusts at 8 PM PDT on Tuesday, Aug. 8th.\u00a0 Gusts to around 65 knots (75 mph)\u00a0 around Lahaina\u00a0 (color shading).\u00a0 Pressure is also shown as are the wind vectors.\u00a0 A life-threatening prediction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moderate winds approached the mountains of West Maui and then accelerated down the western slopes of the terrain.\u00a0 A stable near crest level assisted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strong winds were also observed over central Maui west of Haleakala volcano:\u00a0 more grassfires occurred there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Let me repeat:\u00a0 these were NOT hurricane winds but local downslope wind accelerations, produced by the occurrence of perfect meteorological conditions, something I will review in a future blog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An analog to such wind acceleration is the strong winds that can occur in Enumclaw, Black Diamond, and North Bend, Washington under strong easterly (from the east) flow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ignition<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although little information has been forthcoming on this point, the ignition had to be human-caused, since there was no lightning in the area.\u00a0 Considering the massive wind damage to electric infrastructure, with reports of fallen and sparking powerlines,\u00a0 it is quite probable that the strong winds caused the ignitions that started the fires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We Can Make Sure This Never Happens Again<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

First,\u00a0 it is essential the actual causes of the fire be understood (extensive dry grass, strong local winds), not climate change and “flash droughts.”<\/strong>\u00a0 \u00a0Only a science-based, rigorous understanding of the wildfire’s origins can lead to a better outcome in the future.\u00a0 Incorrect, politized explanations work directly against solving the problem.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, many more wind observations are needed<\/strong>.\u00a0 The weather observing network on Maui and particularly western Maui is totally inadequate, as shown by the map below.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Virtually no wind observations around Lahaina.\u00a0 Unbelievable.\u00a0 Weather observations are critical for understanding the wind threat, to warn the population.\u00a0 Wind observations foster decisions to de-energize powerlines to prevent ignitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

California has learned this lesson and has installed thousands of weather observation sites.\u00a0 Hawaii needs hundreds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Third, much better use of weather forecast models for warning and decision-making is required.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong>As shown above, current weather prediction technology is so good that most localized wind threats can be forecast well in advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The National Weather Service waited way too long to put out a\u00a0 Red Flag Warning (9:26 AM on August 8th).\u00a0 \u00a0And with the intense winds predicted by the NOAA HRRR model, MUCH more severe warnings should have been made.\u00a0 NOAA and the State of Hawaii need to work out a comprehensive plan for better warning of such dire threats to life and property.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Powerline De-energization<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hawaii electric utilities should immediately make plans to turn off the power to threatened areas when strong winds are either observed or predicted.\u00a0 California and Northwest utilities have already begun this life and pre<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The combination of rigorous science, more observations, better use of models, stronger and more aggressive warnings, and powerline de-energization can ensure that a tragedy like this week will never occur again in the Hawaiian Islands.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The terrible fires around Lahaina, Maui have resulted in a death toll of 67 (which will certainly rise) and an economic loss of billions of dollars.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":273672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691821849,691821848,691821790,691818397],"class_list":{"0":"post-273650","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-flash-droughts","10":"tag-hurricane-dora","11":"tag-lahaina","12":"tag-noaa","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0F3iAMA5akAACmML.jpeg?fit=2048%2C2048&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-19bI","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":272977,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272977","url_meta":{"origin":273650,"position":0},"title":"Hawaiian Fires: Fueled by Invasive Grasses, a Wet Spring and Human Ignition Sources","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Maui fire would have devastated Lahaina in a colder or warmer climate. It would have devastated Lahaina in high or low CO2\u00a0concentrations. The key is managing the dead grasses that become flammable in just hours. Climate change was irrelevant. Declaring a climate emergency to reduce fossil fuels is a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Fire\"","block_context":{"text":"Fire","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=fire"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-485.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-485.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-485.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-485.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":274141,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=274141","url_meta":{"origin":273650,"position":1},"title":"After a False Start, Mainstream Media Largely Reports Accurately on Maui Wildfire","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"As has become a far too common knee jerk reaction as natural disasters occur, mainstream media outlets, like\u00a0Bloomberg\u00a0and\u00a0the Los Angeles Times, for example, were quick to blame climate change for the Maui wildfire and its horrific consequences. They were wrong, and for once, perhaps because of the sobering death toll,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Alarmists\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Alarmists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0maui-wildfire-c.jpg?fit=1200%2C625&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0maui-wildfire-c.jpg?fit=1200%2C625&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0maui-wildfire-c.jpg?fit=1200%2C625&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0maui-wildfire-c.jpg?fit=1200%2C625&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0maui-wildfire-c.jpg?fit=1200%2C625&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 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Mann obliged, suggesting the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Catastrophe\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Catastrophe","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-catastrophe"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_jj-rIb0AAqiqI.jpeg?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_jj-rIb0AAqiqI.jpeg?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_jj-rIb0AAqiqI.jpeg?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_jj-rIb0AAqiqI.jpeg?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_jj-rIb0AAqiqI.jpeg?fit=1200%2C849&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=273650"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273650\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":273674,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/273650\/revisions\/273674"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/273672"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=273650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=273650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=273650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}