{"id":273411,"date":"2023-08-14T13:23:16","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T11:23:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=273411"},"modified":"2023-08-14T13:23:19","modified_gmt":"2023-08-14T11:23:19","slug":"snow-job-why-sunshine-dependent-solar-will-never-provide-meaningful-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=273411","title":{"rendered":"Snow Job: Why Sunshine-Dependent Solar Will Never Provide Meaningful\u00a0Power"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From STOP THESE THINGS<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Anyone claiming that solar power is a meaningful power source, has never seen a sunset, and they can\u2019t have never seen a hurricane, hailstorm, or snowfall, or witnessed an icy frost. Because each of those planetary and meteorological events destroys either the panels themselves, or their ability to provide power consumers with electricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this well-crafted piece, Roger Calazza seeks to set the record straight when it comes to fanciful talk about solar power, being a power source of the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five Reasons New Yorkers Should Not Embrace a Solar Energy\u00a0Future
<\/strong>Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York
Roger Calazza
20 June 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On June 18, 2023 the Syracuse Post Standard published a commentary,\u00a0Five Reasons New Yorkers Should Embrace a Solar Energy Future<\/a>\u00a0by\u00a0Richard Perez, Ph.D.<\/a>\u00a0 According to the introduction \u201cThis essay aims to clarify common misunderstandings about solar energy and demonstrate its potential to provide an abundant, reliable, affordable and environmentally friendly energy future for New York\u201d.\u00a0 This post explains why I disagree with just about everything in the essay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only reason that New York is pushing solar as part of the energy future of New York is the\u00a0Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act<\/a>\u00a0(Climate Act). \u00a0I have been following the Climate Act since it was first proposed, submitted\u00a0comments<\/a>\u00a0on the Climate Act implementation plan, and have\u00a0written<\/a>\u00a0over 300 articles about New York\u2019s net-zero transition.\u00a0 I have devoted a lot of time to the Climate Act because I believe the ambitions for a zero-emissions economy embodied in the Climate Act outstrip available renewable technology such that the net-zero transition will do more harm than good.\u00a0 The opinions expressed in this post do not reflect the position of any of my previous employers or any other company I have been associated with, these comments are mine alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Climate Act Background
<\/strong>The Climate Act established a New York \u201cNet Zero\u201d target (85% reduction and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050 and an interim 2030 target of a 40% reduction by 2030. The\u00a0Climate Action Council<\/a>\u00a0is responsible for preparing the Scoping Plan that outlines how to \u201cachieve the State\u2019s bold clean energy and climate agenda.\u201d\u00a0 In brief, that plan is to electrify everything possible and power the electric grid with zero-emissions generating resources by 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0Integration Analysis<\/a>\u00a0prepared by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantifies the impact of the electrification strategies.\u00a0 That material was used to write a\u00a0Draft Scoping Plan<\/a>.\u00a0 After a year-long review, the Scoping Plan recommendations were finalized at the end of 2022.\u00a0 In 2023 the\u00a0Scoping Plan<\/a>\u00a0recommendations are supposed to be implemented through regulation and legislation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) \u201cGold Book<\/a>\u201d load and capacity report, in 2022 there were a total of 4,444 MW of solar nameplate capacity (154 MW of utility-scale solar and 4,290 MW of behind-the-meter) on-line in the state.\u00a0\u00a0 However, implementation of the Climate Act transition to net-zero will significantly increase that amount by 2030.\u00a0 By 2030 the New York State Energy Research & Development Authority (NYSERDA) and consultant Energy + Environmental Economics (E3)\u00a0Integration Analysis<\/a>\u00a0that provides quantitative estimates of resources for the Scoping Plan projects a total of 18,852 MW and the NYISO\u00a02021-2040 System & Resource Outlook<\/a>\u00a0projects 14,731 MW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commentary
<\/strong>Against that backdrop, I address the five reasons Dr. Perez uses to promote solar energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Abundance:\u00a0<\/strong>The sun is a vast energy resource that powers our planet\u2019s weather and sustains life. In just a few hours, Earth receives more solar energy than the total annual energy consumption of all economies, combined. In a week, it receives more solar energy than the combined reserves of coal, oil, natural gas and uranium.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So what?\u00a0 According to the\u00a0US Geological Service<\/a>\u00a0water covers about 71% of the earth\u2019s surface and yet there are deserts with very little water available for use.\u00a0 The critical requirement is the need for energy when and where needed and New York solar is not situated well in that regard.\u00a0 The Scoping Plan strategy to decarbonize relies on electrification of homes and transportation so future expected peak loads will occur in the winter.\u00a0 In New York the winter solar resource is poor because the days are short, the irradiance is low because the sun is low in the sky, and clouds and snow-covered panels contribute to low expectations for solar resource availability.\u00a0\u00a0 The New York Independent System Operator does not plan on any solar contribution to resources available for the peak winter hourly load.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Growth of solar technology:<\/strong>\u00a0Solar technology, known as photovoltaics (PV), has experienced significant expansion. Since the 1980s, PV deployment has consistently grown at a remarkable annual rate of 30%, overcoming economic and political fluctuations. This growth is due to improvements in efficiency, versatility and cost-effectiveness, enabling solar to enter new markets successfully. Experts predict this trend will continue, and, if the stable 30% annual rate persists, by the early 2040s, there may be enough solar installations worldwide to entirely power global economies.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

If it is so good, then why does deployment rely on direct subsidies?\u00a0 Solar proponents don\u2019t acknowledge the incompatibility of solar resources with electric system reliability.\u00a0 In order to match generation with load requirements grid operators must dispatch generating resources to match the load.\u00a0 Solar PV facilities are not dispatchable so their deployment complicates rather than enhances grid operations. \u00a0Finally, there will always be limits on just how much power can be obtained from any solar panel.\u00a0 Therefore, I suspect that solar will always rely on direct subsidies to make it competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Affordability:<\/strong>\u00a0Reports from leading financial advisers such as the\u00a0Lazard Bank<\/a>\u00a0show that utility-scale solar electricity has become the least expensive form of electricity generation. Solar power is now considerably cheaper than new coal, natural gas, or nuclear energy. Experts anticipate solar electricity becoming even cheaper in the future, with a projected 50% cost decrease within the next 15 years. Moreover, solar plants can be built and operational within months, making them economically advantageous compared to the lengthy construction time for nuclear plants.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The claim that \u201cutility-scale solar electricity has become the least expensive form of electricity generation\u201d refers only to power capacity (MW).\u00a0 Even if solar capacity is half the cost of fossil capacity the cost for delivered energy is much more.\u00a0 We pay for the kWh electric energy we use each month and we expect it to be available 24-7 throughout the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In order to provide usable energy, other things must be considered that destroy the myth that utility-scale solar is cheaper than other types of power plants.\u00a0 On average a well-designed solar facility can provide (round numbers) 20% of its potential energy possible in New York.\u00a0 A natural gas fired power plant can operate to produce at least 80% of its potential energy over a year.\u00a0 In order to produce the same amount of energy, that means that you need four times as much solar capacity.\u00a0 Even if the solar capacity cost is half the cost for the capacity the energy cost is double simply due to this capacity factor difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But wait, there is more.\u00a0 In order to make the energy available when needed storage must be added to the cost of the solar capacity.\u00a0 Also consider that the life expectancy of solar panels is half of the observed life expectancy of fossil-fired power plants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are\u00a0unintended financial consequences<\/a>\u00a0that affect the viability of other generators that are needed for reliability that add to ratepayer costs. Because the solar resource is diffuse, it is necessary to support the transmission system to get the solar power to New York City.\u00a0 There are inherent characteristics of conventional generation that contribute to the stability of the transmission system that are not provided by solar or wind generation.\u00a0 Someone, somewhere must deploy a replacement resource to provide those\u00a0ancillary transmission services<\/a>\u00a0and that cost should be included in the cost comparison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the Integration Analysis, NYISO, New York State Reliability Council, and the Public Service Commission all agree that another resource that can be dispatched and is emissions-free (DEFR) is needed when the electric grid becomes dependent upon solar and wind resources.\u00a0 The state\u2019s irrational fear of nuclear generation precludes the only proven resource that meets the necessary criteria so an entirely new resource must be developed, tested, and deployed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0Integration Analysis<\/a>\u00a0and NYISO\u00a02021-2040 System & Resource Outlook<\/a>\u00a0both project that the DEFR resource will be comparable in size to existing fossil resources but will operate no more than 9% of the time.\u00a0 I have yet to see an expected cost for this resource but have no doubts that it will be extraordinarily expensive.\u00a0 Summing all the costs necessary to make solar power usable for electric energy reliable delivery and there is no doubt that solar is much more expensive than conventional generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Reliability:<\/strong>\u00a0Solar energy\u2019s intermittency has been a concern, but solutions are emerging to ensure a continuous power supply available day and night year round without fail. These solutions include energy storage, optimized integration of solar and wind energy, and maintaining a small degree of flexibility with conventional power generation. The most efficient solution, however, involves overbuilding solar installations. These firm power solutions are expected to reduce the cost of reliable solar and wind electricity to levels competitive with current energy markets. The International Energy Agency predicts that most economies worldwide will achieve 100% renewable electricity generation at a cost of 3-7 cents per kWh.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The discussion of costs above listed all the resources necessary to provide reliable energy from intermittent solar resources.\u00a0 Renewable energy proponents don\u2019t acknowledge or understand the resource adequacy analyses the NYISO performs to ensure the system meets New York\u2019s stringent reliability standards.\u00a0 The NYISO has a process that has been developed and refined over decades that determines just how much extra power capacity is necessary to cover the unexpected loss of operating capacity at any one time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A fundamental presumption based on observations in the NYISO analyses is that conventional generating resources operate independently.\u00a0 The problem with a generating system dependent upon wind and solar resources is that there is a very high correlation between wind and solar output across the state.\u00a0 At night every solar resource provides zero energy and whenever there is a storm large portions of the state will be covered by clouds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are similar issues for wind resources that can last for days.\u00a0 \u00a0NYISO and the New York State Reliability Council are just coming to grips with this correlation problem for wind and solar resources and how future resource adequacy analyses will have to be modified to refine the reliability standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, note that this problem is exacerbated by the fact that the hottest and coldest periods in New York associated with the highest electrical loads correlate very well with high pressure systems with light winds.\u00a0 In the summer, this improves solar resource availability but, in the winter, when the solar resource is low because days are shorter and irradiance lower this problem makes the supply challenge even more difficult.\u00a0 The key point is this is a huge reliability risk that will have massive health and welfare impacts if not addressed adequately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resource adequacy by the experts responsible for the electric system contrasts starkly with the cavalier reliability explanation in this section.\u00a0 Solutions are \u201cemerging\u201d is a hollow promise because of physics.\u00a0 There is a\u00a0real concern<\/a>\u00a0because all the emerging alleged solutions must overcome the Second Law of Thermodynamics.\u00a0 Any energy storage system must lose energy as it is stored and then again as it comes out of storage.\u00a0 This limits the viability of every storage system proposed to meet this challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overbuilding is touted as the \u201cmost efficient solution\u201d but it has consequences.\u00a0 This solution recognizes that storage is expensive so overbuilding solar installations reduces the periods when it is necessary to rely on storage to meet demand peaks.\u00a0 \u00a0This affects the so-called\u00a0duck curve<\/a>\u00a0created when distributed solar resources reduce net demand during the day (the duck\u2019s belly) but sharply increase demand at sunset (the duck\u2019s neck).\u00a0 As more solar resources are added the difference is increased and the challenge to balance load and generation is more difficult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given all the issues that I described above, the statement: \u201cThese firm power solutions are expected to reduce the cost of reliable solar and wind electricity to levels competitive with current energy markets\u201d is mis-information.\u00a0 Every jurisdiction that has increased the use of solar and wind resources without the use of other uniquely available resources, like hydro or geothermal, has seen massive increases in costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Environmental footprint:<\/strong>\u00a0Solar energy has a significantly lower environmental impact compared to fossil fuels and nuclear power. While it is not entirely free of environmental concerns, it poses fewer climate, pollution and accident risks. Concerns regarding land area for solar farms are often exaggerated. Studies show that achieving a 100% renewable PV\/wind future for New York would require less than 1% of the state\u2019s total area. Furthermore, solar farming can generate revenue for communities, provide support for farmers, and be implemented efficiently. PV farms are considerably more space-efficient (50 to 200 times more) than existing energy farming industries harvesting corn ethanol.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The comparison of environmental impacts in the Climate Act Scoping Plan and this statement is biased.\u00a0 The Climate Act mandates that upstream emissions and impacts be considered but does not apply the same condition on wind and solar resources.\u00a0 The claim that there are lower environmental impacts may be true for New York but that does not mean that there are no impacts.\u00a0 Instead. they are moved elsewhere, likely where environmental constraints and social justice concerns are not as strict as here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solar panels, wind turbines and batteries all require significant processing and mining that are not considered in this assessment of environmental footprint.\u00a0\u00a0Mark Mills explains<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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It has long been known that building solar and wind systems requires roughly a\u00a0<\/em>tenfold increase in the total tonnage<\/a>\u00a0of common materials\u2014concrete, steel, glass, etc.\u2014to deliver the same quantity of energy compared to building a natural gas or other hydrocarbon-fueled power plant. Beyond that, supplying the same quantity of energy as conventional sources with solar and wind equipment, along with other aspects of the energy transition such as using electric vehicles (EVs), entails\u00a0<\/em>an enormous increase in the use of specialty minerals and metals<\/a>\u00a0like copper, nickel, chromium, zinc, cobalt: in many instances, it\u2019s far more than a tenfold increase. As\u00a0<\/em>one World Bank study noted<\/a>, the \u201ctechnologies assumed to populate the clean energy shift \u2026 are in fact significantly MORE material intensive in their composition than current traditional fossil-fuel-based energy supply systems.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Another ignored environmental issue is the disposal of solar panels when they no longer work.\u00a0 A recent BBC podcast, \u201cThe Climate Question,\u201d\u00a0raises serious issues about the lifespan and end-of-life management of solar panels<\/a>.\u00a0 Note that the Hochul Administration has not prepared a\u00a0cumulative environmental impact assessment<\/a>\u00a0for the increased wind and solar development projected in the Integration Analysis so these impacts are not adequately addressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have summarized all my solar development articles\u00a0here<\/a>.\u00a0 Even though \u201ca 100% renewable PV\/wind future for New York would require less than 1% of the state\u2019s total area\u201d that does not mean that there will not be significant impacts because the Hochul administration has not developed a solar development implementation plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no mandate that solar developments meet the Department of Agriculture and Markets\u00a0 goal for projects \u201cto limit the conversion of agricultural areas within the Project Areas, to no more than 10% of soils classified by the Department\u2019s NYS Agricultural Land Classification mineral soil groups 1-4, generally Prime Farmland soils, which represent the State\u2019s most productive farmland.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Projects approved to date have converted 21% of the prime farmland within project areas.\u00a0 Another major failure is that there is no requirement for utility-scale solar projects to use tracking-axis solar panels.\u00a0 As a result, the estimates of the capacity needed are under-estimates because I have yet to find a solar development that has committed to that type of panel.\u00a0 Consequently, permitted facilities will have lower capacity factors than assumed in the Integration Analysis so more panels will be needed and more prime farmland lost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discussion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the article Dr. Perez:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Leads solar energy research at SUNY Albany\u2019s Atmospheric Sciences Research Center. He has served multiple terms on the board of the American Solar Energy Society and as associate editor of Solar Energy Journal. Perez serves on the board of\u00a0United Solar Energy Supporters,\u00a0<\/a>a statewide nonprofit group providing education and information to the public about solar energy.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I highly recommend the post by Russel Schussler\u00a0Academics and the Grid<\/a>\u00a0because it does a good job explaining why academic studies of the energy system need to be considered carefully.\u00a0 He concludes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Academic research that promotes improvements to the power grid needs to be evaluated carefully with the understanding that the grid is a complex system full of interactions. Changes to the grid involve numerous hurdles. Language is often imprecise. For instance, when readers see a statement stating \u201cSolar and wind could attain penetration levels of X\u201d. What the statement really means is \u201cBased on the factors I looked at and ignoring a vast number of critical requirements I have not looked at, solar and wind may be able to replace fossil resources at a level of X. But probably not.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Unfortunately, the statement is often interpreted as \u201cSolar and wind can attain penetration levels of X with no significant concerns.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I believe that this is relevant to the commentary by Perez.\u00a0 The abundance of solar energy argument ignores that availability when and where needed is a critical requirement.\u00a0 Solar energy in New York is limited because of the latitude and weather so there are limits to the value of technological improvements.\u00a0 The complexity of reliability planning and analysis is dismissed with promises of improvements but there are fundamental problems that must be overcome.\u00a0 The affordability argument is a perfect example of ignoring a vast number of critical aspects and the experience of all the other jurisdictions that have tried something similar and found massive cost impacts.\u00a0 The claim of limited environmental impacts is only tenable if the mining and waste disposal impacts are ignored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion
<\/strong>Perez concludes \u201cBy dispelling these misunderstandings and recognizing the potential of solar energy, New York can embrace an abundant, dependable, affordable, and environmentally friendly energy future.\u201d\u00a0 The reasons given to address alleged misunderstandings do not stand up to scrutiny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The suggestion that a system depending on solar energy will be dependable and affordable would be laughable if it were not so dangerous.\u00a0 The existing affordability and reliability of the existing electric system has evolved over decades using dispatchable resources with inherent qualities that support the transmission of electric energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The net-zero electric system will depend upon resources subject to the vagaries of weather, that do not support grid resilience, and include an unknown resource that must overcome the second law of thermodynamics.\u00a0 This is a recipe for disaster because if the resource adequacy planning does not correctly estimate the worst-case period of abnormally low wind and solar energy availability then the energy needed to keep the lights on and homes heated will not be available when needed most and people will freeze to death in the dark.
Pragmatic Environmentalist<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Anyone claiming that solar power is a meaningful power source, has never seen a sunset, and they can\u2019t have never seen a hurricane, hailstorm, or snowfall, or witnessed an icy frost. 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