{"id":272988,"date":"2023-08-12T12:20:24","date_gmt":"2023-08-12T10:20:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272988"},"modified":"2023-08-12T12:20:27","modified_gmt":"2023-08-12T10:20:27","slug":"the-gulf-stream-will-not-collapse-in-2025-what-the-alarmist-headlines-got-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272988","title":{"rendered":"The ‘Gulf Stream’ will not collapse in 2025: What the alarmist headlines got wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Phys.org<\/a><\/em><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

by Andrew Weaver,\u00a0The Conversation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Diagram of the flow of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Credit: R. Curry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution\/Science\/USGCRP,\u00a0CC BY<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Those following the latest developments in climate science would have been stunned by the jaw-dropping headlines last week proclaiming the\u00a0“Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests”<\/a>\u2014which responded to a\u00a0recent publication in\u00a0Nature Communications<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Be very worried: Gulf Stream collapse could spark global chaos by 2025”\u00a0announced the\u00a0New York Post<\/em><\/a>. “A crucial system of ocean currents is heading for a collapse that ‘would affect every person on the planet” noted\u00a0CNN in the U.S.<\/a>\u00a0and repeated\u00a0CTV News here in Canada<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One can only imagine how\u00a0those already stricken with climate anxiety<\/a>\u00a0internalized this seemingly apocalyptic news as temperature records were being shattered across the globe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This latest alarmist rhetoric provides a textbook example of how not to communicate\u00a0climate science<\/a>. These headlines do nothing to raise public awareness, let alone influence public policy to support climate solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We see the world we describe<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is well known that\u00a0climate anxiety is fueled by media messaging about the looming climate crisis<\/a>. This is causing many to simply shut down and give up\u2014believing we are all doomed and there is nothing anyone can do about it<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alarmist media framing of impending doom has become\u00a0quintessential fuel for personal climate anxiety<\/a>, and when amplified by sensational media messaging, it is quickly emerging as a dominant factor in the\u00a0collective zeitgeist of our age, the Anthropocene<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is also not the first time such headlines have emerged. Back in 1998, the\u00a0Atlantic Monthly<\/em><\/a>\u00a0published an article raising the alarm that global “warming could lead, paradoxically, to drastic cooling\u2014a catastrophe that could threaten the survival of civilization.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2002, editorials in the\u00a0New York Times<\/em><\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Discover<\/em><\/a>\u00a0magazine offered the prediction of a forthcoming collapse of deep water formation in the North Atlantic, which would lead to the next ice age.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Building on the unfounded assertions in these earlier stories, BBC Horizon televised a 2003 documentary titled “The Big Chill<\/a>,” and in 2004\u00a0Fortune<\/em><\/a>\u00a0magazine published “The Pentagon’s Weather Nightmare,” piling on where previous articles left off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seeing the opportunity for an exciting disaster movie, Hollywood stepped up to created\u00a0The Day After Tomorrow<\/em><\/a>\u00a0in which every known law of thermodynamics was ever so creatively violated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The currents are not collapsing (anytime soon)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While it was relatively easy<\/a> to show that it is not possible for global warming to cause an ice age<\/a>, this still hasn’t stopped some from promoting<\/a> this false narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest series of alarmist headlines may not have fixated on an impending ice age, but they still suggest the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation could collapse by 2025. This is an outrageous claim at best and a completely irresponsible pronouncement at worst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The sweetspot of climate communications strikes an optomistic tone while reinforcing that change is possible. Credit: Andrew Weaver<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been assessing the likelihood of a cessation of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic for decades. In fact, I was on the writing team of the 2007 4th Assessment Report where we concluded that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“It is very likely that the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) will slow down during the course of the 21st century. It is very unlikely that the MOC will undergo a large abrupt transition during the course of the 21st century.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Almost identical statements were included in the\u00a05th Assessment Report in 2013<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a06th Assessment Report in 2021<\/a>. Other assessments, including the National Academy of Sciences\u00a0Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises<\/em><\/a>, published in 2013, also reached similar conclusions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 6th assessment report went further to conclude that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

“There is no observational evidence of a trend in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), based on the decade-long record of the complete AMOC and longer records of individual AMOC components.”<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Understanding climate optimism<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hannah Ritchie, the deputy editor and lead researcher at\u00a0Our World in Data<\/a>\u00a0and a senior researcher at the Oxford Martin School,\u00a0recently penned an article for\u00a0Vox<\/em><\/a>\u00a0where she proposed an elegant framework for how people see the world and their ability to facilitate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ritchie’s framework lumped people into four general categories based on combinations of those who are optimistic and those who are pessimistic about the future, as well as those who believe and those who don’t believe that we have agency to shape the future based on today’s decisions and actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ritchie persuasively argued that more people located in the green “optimistic and changeable” box are what is needed to advance climate solutions. Those positioned elsewhere are not effective in advancing such solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More importantly, rather than instilling a sense of optimism that\u00a0global warming<\/a>\u00a0is a solvable problem, the extreme behavior (fear mongering or civil disobedience) of the “pessimistic changeable” group (such as many within the\u00a0Extinction Rebellion<\/a>\u00a0movement), often does nothing more than drive the public towards the “pessimistic not changeable” group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A responsibility to communicate, responsibly<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, extremely low probability, and often poorly understood\u00a0tipping point scenarios<\/a>, often end up being misinterpreted as likely and imminent climate events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In many cases, the\u00a0nuances of scientific uncertainty<\/a>, particularly around the differences between hypothesis posing and hypothesis testing, are lost on the lay reader when a study goes viral across social media. This is only amplified in situations where scientists make statements where creative license is taken with speculative possibilities. Possibilities that reader-starved journalists are only too happy to play up in clickbait headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Through independent research and the writing of IPCC reports, the climate science community operates from a position of privilege in the public discourse of\u00a0climate change<\/a>\u00a0science, its impacts and solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate scientists have agency in the advancement of\u00a0climate<\/a>\u00a0solutions, and with that agency comes a responsibility to avoid sensationalism. By not tempering their speech, they risk further ratcheting up the rhetoric with nothing to offer in terms of overall solutions or risk reduction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Journal information:<\/strong>Nature Communications<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Provided by\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article is republished from\u00a0The Conversation<\/a>\u00a0under a Creative Commons license. Read the\u00a0original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Those following the latest developments in climate science would have been stunned by the jaw-dropping headlines last week proclaiming the\u00a0“Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests”\u2014which responded to a\u00a0recent publication in\u00a0Nature Communications.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":272999,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821791,691821792,691819743,691821383,691818380],"class_list":{"0":"post-272988","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-alarmist-headlines","9":"tag-atlantic-ocean-meridional-overturning-circulation-moc","10":"tag-climate-propaganda","11":"tag-gulf-stream","12":"tag-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-487.png?fit=1920%2C1080&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1912","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":270980,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270980","url_meta":{"origin":272988,"position":0},"title":"The Guardian\u2019s (ocean) circulation problem","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Is there no loyalty among climate extremists? The Guardian makes a mistake about the fundamental difference between the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and suddenly everyone is on its case, some accusing it of sloppy reporting, others demanding a correction of its fake news, (which didn\u2019t\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AMOC\"","block_context":{"text":"AMOC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":281024,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281024","url_meta":{"origin":272988,"position":1},"title":"New study confirms Gulf Stream weakening, but cause unknown \u2013 or is\u00a0it?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The lead and co-author have clearly different views on this: Lead author: \u201cWhile we can definitively say this weakening is happening, we are unable to say to what extent it is related to climate change or whether it is a natural variation.\u201d Co-author: \u201cIt saddens me to acknowledge, from our\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0fpdl13_140226.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0fpdl13_140226.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0fpdl13_140226.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0fpdl13_140226.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0fpdl13_140226.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":414279,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414279","url_meta":{"origin":272988,"position":2},"title":"\u00a0Is The Gulf Stream Really Collapsing? Debunking Another Climate Doomsday Claim","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The idea that global warming could paradoxically shut down the Gulf Stream, plunging Europe into a new cold spell\u2014a scenario popularized by the film\u00a0The Day After Tomorrow\u2014is a powerful narrative.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":363774,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363774","url_meta":{"origin":272988,"position":3},"title":"New Findings Show No Decline in the Strength of the Gulf Stream Since the 1960s","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Most people have seen or are aware of the 2004 Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow and its story of disruption to the Atlantic Gulf Stream causing catastrophic weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate alarmists out to impoverish the world with their command-and-control Net Zero fantasies have been dining out\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Gulf Stream\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Gulf Stream","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-gulf-stream"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/00yl2jd2c4hwqnd2ydyzfi.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/00yl2jd2c4hwqnd2ydyzfi.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/00yl2jd2c4hwqnd2ydyzfi.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/00yl2jd2c4hwqnd2ydyzfi.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/00yl2jd2c4hwqnd2ydyzfi.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":342652,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342652","url_meta":{"origin":272988,"position":4},"title":"Shock Gulf Stream News:\u00a0Top U.S. Scientists Find Flow Not Collapsing But \u201cRemarkably Stable\u201d Over Last 40 Years","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Last year, Georgina Rannard of the BBC reported that \u201cscientists say\u201d a weakening Gulf Stream could collapse\u00a0as early as this year, a dire process that would bring catastrophic changes in the weather in the northern hemisphere. Routine fear mongering, of course, from the Net Zero promoting BBC and this \u2018tipping\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/07da60fd5fd84f8732a63fdc901be0ba6-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C545&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/07da60fd5fd84f8732a63fdc901be0ba6-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C545&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/07da60fd5fd84f8732a63fdc901be0ba6-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C545&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/07da60fd5fd84f8732a63fdc901be0ba6-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C545&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/07da60fd5fd84f8732a63fdc901be0ba6-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C545&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":413878,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413878","url_meta":{"origin":272988,"position":5},"title":"An Ice Age May Come, New York Post, But If It Does, Ocean Current Collapse Won\u2019t Be the Cause","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The New York Post (NYP) covered a recent study that claims the \u201cGulf Stream\u201d could soon collapse due to human caused climate change. 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