{"id":272891,"date":"2023-08-11T19:15:52","date_gmt":"2023-08-11T17:15:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272891"},"modified":"2023-08-11T19:16:09","modified_gmt":"2023-08-11T17:16:09","slug":"hurricane-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272891","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane update"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"508\" data-attachment-id=\"272917\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=272917\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1280%2C900&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1280,900\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-479\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=723%2C508&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?resize=723%2C508&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-272917\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?resize=1024%2C720&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?resize=300%2C211&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?resize=768%2C540&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?resize=1200%2C844&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From \u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/\">CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/author\/joe-bastardi\/\">Joe Bastardi<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"272892\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=272892\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00Hurricane-Palms.jpg?fit=450%2C299&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"450,299\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;15027245 - palms at hurricane&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;nattachart\/123RF&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;15027245 - palms at hurricane&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"15027245 &amp;#8211; palms at hurricane\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;15027245 &amp;#8211; palms at hurricane&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00Hurricane-Palms.jpg?fit=450%2C299&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00Hurricane-Palms.jpg?resize=723%2C481&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-272892\" style=\"width:761px;height:506px\" width=\"723\" height=\"481\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00Hurricane-Palms.jpg?w=450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00Hurricane-Palms.jpg?resize=300%2C199&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">15027245 &#8211; palms at hurricane<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>August 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This hurricane season, a September to remember is on the table.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The expected impacts on the U.S. Coast have increased compared to the last forecast.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Keep in mind that this is, in essence, a \u201cnormal\u201d season.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1985 and 1954 were \u201cnormal\u201d seasons but had a high impact, and this may be like that.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"272894\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=272894\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-470.png?fit=640%2C452&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,452\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-470\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-470.png?fit=640%2C452&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-470.png?resize=723%2C511&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-272894\" style=\"width:759px;height:536px\" width=\"723\" height=\"511\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-470.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-470.png?resize=300%2C212&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>U.S. Expected impacts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tropical storm conditions: 6<br>Hurricane conditions: 3-4<br>Major hurricane conditions: 1-2<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>The Power and Impact scale rates the storm intensity during the highest impact (they do not have to make \u201clandfall\u201d, just cause the conditions). That has been increased to 9 from 8 (see\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.weatherbell.com\/power-and-impact-scale\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Power and Impact<\/a>\u00a0scale). In cases like Ian,\u00a0 two different impact numbers that were added together \u2013 4 for Florida and 1.75 for the Carolinas. The ultimate impact is Donna in 1960 (4 in Florida, 3 in the Carolinas, and 2 in New England) for a total of 9. A whole season was wrapped into one storm. Note that Canada is not included in this forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These numbers have been upped slightly. I am saying six tropical storm impacts because I believe that when the season is done, the feature that was un-named on Memorial Day weekend off the Southeast Coast that caused a wipe out the holiday weekend in the Carolinas, hurricane-force winds to a Carnival Cruise Ship, and storm force winds on the coast, will get classified. You can\u2019t classify that January system and then let that one go. We do realize this is somewhat of a numbers game and is totally subjective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So far, NHC has classified five storms. The two African waves set off much hype as they were so early on, but they fell apart. Since Cindy, nothing has developed outside of Africa. That is how it is normally until August. What is interesting is that the pattern is doing it with record-warm water comparable to the busiest of seasons. This further buttresses my argument about how the distortion of the warming can bring down activity if you boil it down to the old Texas A &amp; M rule: Hurricanes are ways to redistribute heat out of the Tropics. If it\u2019s already being done horizontally and vertically (i.e., warm all over), what\u2019s the need for them?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So with five storms already classified and 16 ACE points, we are ahead of that. One of the storms, Don, became a hurricane. Because it was around so long, it had 7 of the 16 ACE points. The January system had 1.4 ACE points. Don did not originate in the Tropics (nor did the January system or what became Arlene). Essentially the African wave season has produced only 7 of the 16 points. If we were only at 7, we would be below normal for the date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The big fear here is a spray gun season that all comes in a few weeks. 2008 was classic with seven named impact storms in a row, and then none:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"272897\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=272897\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-471.png?fit=158%2C152&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"158,152\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-471\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-471.png?fit=158%2C152&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-471.png?resize=179%2C172&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-272897\" style=\"width:179px;height:172px\" width=\"179\" height=\"172\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1985:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"272898\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=272898\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-472.png?fit=640%2C570&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,570\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-472\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-472.png?fit=640%2C570&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-472.png?resize=723%2C644&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-272898\" style=\"width:759px;height:676px\" width=\"723\" height=\"644\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-472.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-472.png?resize=300%2C267&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Herein lies the problem. The congregation of tracks may wind up similarly, and the September Sea Level Pressure forecast by the Euro alludes to that. In the same manner, its precipitation forecast from mid-September to November last year hinted at the late-season activity well before the storms that hit were named.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Globally the western Pacific is doing what were saying it was going to do. The El Ni\u00f1o, of course, is raging full scale and is heading to what we said from early in the season:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"272900\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=272900\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-473.png?fit=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,495\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-473\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-473.png?fit=640%2C495&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-473.png?resize=723%2C471&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-272900\" style=\"width:761px;height:496px\" width=\"723\" height=\"471\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is in line with the preseason analogs, which were way, way under our totals. However, the warm Atlantic and the Multivariate Enso index are other factors. The MEI is not responding like the ONI because it incorporates atmospheric aspects, so it means that there is a big disconnect between the observed El Ni\u00f1o (Sea surface temperature-wise SST) and other similar years, likely due to the distortion of the entire global pattern brought about by distorted warming. So we can\u2019t just rely on those analogs. We did not in the preseason, and the MEI gives us reason to believe that while El Ni\u00f1o will limit this season\u2019s potential, it will not chop it down as much as the other strong ones did.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The old PSU rule was the real hurricane season starts August 15 and ends Oct 15. 75% of the ace is in that time span, and so it may be this year. I have made changes to the impact areas where we believe a higher-than-average ACE will occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The September ECMWF forecast looks a lot like the Septembers of 1954, 1985, 1989, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008 &amp; 2017, with the western trough and ridging up through eastern Canada. Scaling prevents the kind of definition that is seen in the actual analog:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"272902\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=272902\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-474.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,526\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-474\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-474.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-474.png?resize=723%2C594&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-272902\" style=\"width:759px;height:624px\" width=\"723\" height=\"594\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-474.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-474.png?resize=300%2C247&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"272904\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=272904\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-475.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-475\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-475.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-475.png?resize=723%2C472&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-272904\" style=\"width:760px;height:496px\" width=\"723\" height=\"472\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Sea Level Pressure pattern forecast certainly supports it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"272905\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=272905\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-476.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,526\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-476\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-476.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-476.png?resize=723%2C594&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-272905\" style=\"width:759px;height:624px\" width=\"723\" height=\"594\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-476.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-476.png?resize=300%2C247&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"272906\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=272906\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-477.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-477\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-477.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-477.png?resize=723%2C472&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-272906\" style=\"width:760px;height:496px\" width=\"723\" height=\"472\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The northward shift in the model makes sense compared to the analogs because of El Ni\u00f1o trying to limit features in the Caribbean. So our forecast map is assuming September is going to be a big month. Again the PSU rule of August 15-October 15 is unlike last year, centering the season in the middle. Last year we picked out analog\/model correlations and nailed the late-season activity. It will be interesting to see if this is correct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The spread of landfalling majors in these years ranges from Harvey on the western flank in 2007 to Carol and Edna in 1954 to the east (Juan, if you count 2003 in Canada).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is interesting to note how the last three seasons have worked versus this one. 2020 was a wild start to finish. 2021 was early, and 2022 was late. This one is in the middle. So this turns into a \u201cbang for the buck forecast\u201d. I have upped the majors to 1-2 hits. If there is a spray of 5 or 6 storms impacting the U.S., three or four hurricanes, and 1-2 majors, it would mean the Power and Impact points would be higher, so I nudged that up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Verdict<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The western Pacific is performing according to plan. I think 75% of the ACE may occur in September, and there may be a flurry of activity, depending on the MJO, similar to what we have seen before, where several storms impact the U.S. all at once. The Texas hurricane season should shut down in October, and I suspect after October 15, the rest of the U.S. will too, but who knows what will get named out in the middle of nowhere that may head for Europe?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is actually a pretty threatening impact forecast. We need to watch the MJO. So far, we have been saved by western Pacific activity, as development there usually means the Atlantic is quiet. They are way ahead of the game this season. The quiet in the Atlantic is not likely to last, and there is a chance that the current quiet will turn into a riot for a few weeks; so far there is nothing on the horizon but rumors of storms, but later this month and especially in September, that should all change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Note that next year may be a doozy of a season. I believe this is a bounce-back El Ni\u00f1o in response to the longest and strongest MEI El Ni\u00f1o on record, so we should collapse it and go back to a La Ni\u00f1a base state. SSTs will remain warm, and so that may be a season number-wise (at least for totals) two times higher than this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Author<\/h2>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignleft size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"207\" height=\"243\" data-attachment-id=\"272909\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=272909\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-478.png?fit=207%2C243&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"207,243\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-478\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-478.png?fit=207%2C243&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-478.png?resize=207%2C243&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-272909\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/author\/joe-bastardi\/\"><br>Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of \u201cThe Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won\u2019t Hear From Al Gore \u2014 and Others\u201d which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Power and Impact scale rates the storm intensity during the highest impact (they do not have to make \u201clandfall\u201d, just cause the conditions).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":272917,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819287,691821329,691818825,691821775,691821774],"class_list":{"0":"post-272891","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-el-nino-2","9":"tag-hurricane-season","10":"tag-la-nina-2","11":"tag-pacific","12":"tag-u-s-coast-have","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1280%2C900&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18Zt","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":232215,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=232215","url_meta":{"origin":272891,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, The Conversation, Evidence Shows People Are NOT Under Greater Threat from Hurricanes","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/12\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article in\u00a0The Conversation\u00a0suggests, based on new evidence of past hurricane frequencies, that coastal areas and islands in the Atlantic Hurricane basin could be facing a dire future involving greater threat from hurricanes.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0hurricane-eduardo-pixabay-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C818&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0hurricane-eduardo-pixabay-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C818&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0hurricane-eduardo-pixabay-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C818&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0hurricane-eduardo-pixabay-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C818&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/0hurricane-eduardo-pixabay-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C818&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":288716,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288716","url_meta":{"origin":272891,"position":1},"title":"5th National Climate Assessment: Obscured Hurricane Facts to Pull on Heart Strings","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"By Jim Steele NCA Hype: NCA constantly claimed that \u201churricanes are both expected to increase in the region due to human-induced climate change, which will affect public health unless adaptation measures are taken (high confidence).\u201d The NCA focused on human and ecosystem hardships in Puerto Rico caused by Hurricane Maria\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"5th National Climate Assessment\"","block_context":{"text":"5th National Climate Assessment","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=5th-national-climate-assessment"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_Zmmbla0AEGiDe.jpeg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_Zmmbla0AEGiDe.jpeg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_Zmmbla0AEGiDe.jpeg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_Zmmbla0AEGiDe.jpeg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0F_Zmmbla0AEGiDe.jpeg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":228470,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=228470","url_meta":{"origin":272891,"position":2},"title":"Hurricane Nicole","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"No doubt, some climate activist will be wheeled out to claim that hurricanes this late in the year are rare, but as Fox point out, there have been other November hurricanes in Florida, in 1935 and 1985. They were both Cat 2s, with winds of 98 mph.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0image-30.png?fit=1024%2C620&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0image-30.png?fit=1024%2C620&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0image-30.png?fit=1024%2C620&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/0image-30.png?fit=1024%2C620&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":259253,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259253","url_meta":{"origin":272891,"position":3},"title":"ClimateTV Live @ 1PM EDT: Extreme Hurricane Season, or Extreme Fearmongering?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Readers may recall that last year, NOAA and media outlets touted a very active hurricane season that turned out (thankfully) to be a dud. What impact will the end of La Ni\u00f1a and return of El Ni\u00f1o have this year? What other factors are at play?","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screenshot-2023-05-26-191113.png?fit=905%2C514&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screenshot-2023-05-26-191113.png?fit=905%2C514&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screenshot-2023-05-26-191113.png?fit=905%2C514&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Screenshot-2023-05-26-191113.png?fit=905%2C514&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":223628,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=223628","url_meta":{"origin":272891,"position":4},"title":"True, WSJ, Hurricanes are Not Becoming More Damaging, Climate Policy is","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/10\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent op-ed in the Wall Street Journal gives a refreshingly fact-driven take on the threat of hurricanes, grid blackouts caused by global warming policy, and the idea that adaptation is a more realistic reaction to climate change.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-585.png?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-585.png?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-585.png?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-585.png?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/image-585.png?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":412350,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412350","url_meta":{"origin":272891,"position":5},"title":"Wrong, Detroit Free Press, Hurricane Melissa Wasn\u2019t Caused by Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a Detroit Free Press (FP) opinion piece, \u201cClimate change denial can\u2019t stand up to Category 5 Hurricane Melissa,\u201d meteorologist Paul Gross claims that Hurricane Melissa proves climate change is making hurricanes stronger, faster, and more destructive. This is false. Hurricanes are weather, not climate. A single storm\u2014or even a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation\u00a0(AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation\u00a0(AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=272891"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272891\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":272919,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272891\/revisions\/272919"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/272917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=272891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=272891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=272891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}