{"id":272614,"date":"2023-08-10T19:32:26","date_gmt":"2023-08-10T17:32:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272614"},"modified":"2023-08-10T19:32:29","modified_gmt":"2023-08-10T17:32:29","slug":"wind-driven-wildfires-on-maui","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272614","title":{"rendered":"Wind-Driven Wildfires on Maui"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n


Cliff Mass<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Large fires are now burning on Maui, Hawaii with severe damage to the historic town of Lahaina on Maui’s west side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Downtown Lahaina burning.\u00a0 \u00a0Picture courtesy of Alan Dickar<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Satellite imagery shows two major fires… one near Lahaina and the other in the high country east of Kihei (see images below, the orange and red dots show the fires).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As I will discuss below, these fires are the results of strong winds and bountiful grass, plus human ignition sources.\u00a0 Wetter and cooler than normal conditions during the past six months played a role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Wildfires and Hawaii<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Believe it or not, Hawaii is one of the most fire-prone states in the U.S. (see map below of some historical fires)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With persistent trade winds out of the east or northeast, the eastern side of the Hawaiian Island is quite wet (with moist upslope flow), while the lee (or Kona) sides are dry (see climatological precipitation map of the Hawaiian islands below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is why many people vacation at Kona (Big Island), Lahaina (Maui), or\u00a0 Poipu Beach (Kauai), where warm, dry weather dominates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is sufficient precipitation on the lee side of the islands for substantial grasslands to develop, with grasslands increasing during the past several decades as agriculture has declined on Hawaii (e.g., the sugar cane industry is essentially gone).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To illustrate, here is an image taken by Google near Lahaina.\u00a0 Lots of grass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An inferno ready to happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You can also view the large grassy areas on Maui on this satellite image (grassy areas are brownish in color)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Such grasses are highly flammable, even a day after rain, with fire growth greatly encouraged by strong winds. Much of the grasses on Maui are non-native, invasive species that burn easily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And Hawaii frequently gets strong trade winds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why did the Maui fires happen now?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Very strong trade winds developed yesterday, as a large pressure difference (gradient) formed between a strong subtropical high and hurrican Dora to the south.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

To show how unusual this pattern is, the figure below shows the sea level pressure at 11 PM PDT last night, and the normalized\u00a0anomalies<\/em>\u00a0from the typical sea level pressure (colors).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MUCH higher pressure than normal was found just north of Hawaii (red and brown colors), while an area of lower than normal (blue colors) was found south of Hawaii (due to Hurricane Dora).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The result of this anomalous pressure pattern was greatly enhanced winds that fanned the flames and I suspect helped start fires (by downing powerlines).\u00a0 \u00a0A familiar story to those of us in the Northwest.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

How strong were the winds?\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Below are the maximum gusts on Tuesday provided by a NOAA website–some as high as 62 mph.\u00a0 Other reports were as high as 80 mph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Model simulations\/forecasts suggested strong wind acceleration on the lee slopes of the substantial terrain of Maui and downstream of gaps in\u00a0 its terrain\u00a0 (the University of Hawaii high-resolution surface sustained wind prediction for 6 PM PDT Tuesday is shown below)
<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The situation this year on Maui was made even more dangerous on Hawaii because the past half-year was WETTER and COOLER than normal, which enhanced grass growth.<\/strong>\u00a0 \u00a0I repeat wetter and cooler.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don’t have to tell you what some media will be ascribing the Hawaii wildfires to:\u00a0 climate change.\u00a0 \u00a0Demonstrably untrue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To demonstrate wetter\/cooler conditions, here is the departure of precipitation from normal for the past six months (in inches).\u00a0 \u00a0Western Maui was wetter than normal.\u00a0 Much of the big island was crazy wet.\u00a0 This excessive moisture was the result of several powerful Kona Storms this winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Temperatures the past six months?\u00a0 \u00a0As shown below, a bit below normal over western Maui.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So we started with a region prone to grassfires (the western side of Maui).\u00a0 \u00a0We had enhanced grass growth due to extra precipitation, and then the area was hit with unusually strong winds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many of the same ingredients came together to produce the recent large grass fires in eastern Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Large fires are now burning on Maui, Hawaii with severe damage to the historic town of Lahaina on Maui’s west side.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":272638,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821748,691818913],"class_list":{"0":"post-272614","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-maui","9":"tag-wildfires","11":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-394.png?fit=1600%2C900&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18V0","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":272977,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272977","url_meta":{"origin":272614,"position":0},"title":"Hawaiian Fires: Fueled by Invasive Grasses, a Wet Spring and Human Ignition Sources","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Maui fire would have devastated Lahaina in a colder or warmer climate. It would have devastated Lahaina in high or low CO2\u00a0concentrations. The key is managing the dead grasses that become flammable in just hours. Climate change was irrelevant. Declaring a climate emergency to reduce fossil fuels is a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Fire\"","block_context":{"text":"Fire","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=fire"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-485.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-485.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-485.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-485.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":273650,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=273650","url_meta":{"origin":272614,"position":1},"title":"The Origin of the Hawaii Fires\/Preventing a Similar Tragedy in the Future","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The terrible fires around Lahaina, Maui have resulted in a death toll of 67 (which will certainly rise) and an economic loss of billions of dollars.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0F3iAMA5akAACmML.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0F3iAMA5akAACmML.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0F3iAMA5akAACmML.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0F3iAMA5akAACmML.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0F3iAMA5akAACmML.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":273963,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=273963","url_meta":{"origin":272614,"position":2},"title":"The Real Cause of the Maui Wildfire Disaster","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Strong dry winds support fire and result in rapid movement of the flame front, as well as moving embers ahead.\u00a0 The winds could well have started the fire by damaging infrastructure.\u00a0 \u00a0As noted in my earlier blog, a huge reserve of dry, dry winds was in place.","rel":"","context":"In \"dry winds\"","block_context":{"text":"dry winds","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=dry-winds"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/050751f9e-f24a-4838-a74a-a853c5ac5f0a-USP_News__Maui_Hawaii_Fire_Aftermath.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/050751f9e-f24a-4838-a74a-a853c5ac5f0a-USP_News__Maui_Hawaii_Fire_Aftermath.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/050751f9e-f24a-4838-a74a-a853c5ac5f0a-USP_News__Maui_Hawaii_Fire_Aftermath.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/050751f9e-f24a-4838-a74a-a853c5ac5f0a-USP_News__Maui_Hawaii_Fire_Aftermath.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/050751f9e-f24a-4838-a74a-a853c5ac5f0a-USP_News__Maui_Hawaii_Fire_Aftermath.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":274141,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=274141","url_meta":{"origin":272614,"position":3},"title":"After a False Start, Mainstream Media Largely Reports Accurately on Maui Wildfire","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"As has become a far too common knee jerk reaction as natural disasters occur, mainstream media outlets, like\u00a0Bloomberg\u00a0and\u00a0the Los Angeles Times, for example, were quick to blame climate change for the Maui wildfire and its horrific consequences. They were wrong, and for once, perhaps because of the sobering death toll,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Alarmists\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Alarmists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0maui-wildfire-c.jpg?fit=1200%2C625&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0maui-wildfire-c.jpg?fit=1200%2C625&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0maui-wildfire-c.jpg?fit=1200%2C625&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0maui-wildfire-c.jpg?fit=1200%2C625&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0maui-wildfire-c.jpg?fit=1200%2C625&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 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