{"id":272415,"date":"2023-08-09T21:15:01","date_gmt":"2023-08-09T19:15:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272415"},"modified":"2023-08-09T21:15:16","modified_gmt":"2023-08-09T19:15:16","slug":"sorry-washington-post-climate-change-isnt-worsening-hurricanes-but-storm-resilient-military-bases-make-sense","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272415","title":{"rendered":"Sorry, Washington Post, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Worsening Hurricanes, but Storm-Resilient Military Bases Make Sense"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Heartland Institute<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

By Linnea Lueken and H. Sterling Burnett<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A recent article in\u00a0The Washington Post\u00a0<\/em>(WaPo), titled \u201cAs climate change worsens, military eyes base of the future on Gulf Coast<\/a>,\u201d writes that a military base that was previously damaged by a hurricane is being rebuilt to be more weather-resilient. Weather resilient reconstruction makes sense, even though data does not support the claim made by WaPo that hurricanes are getting worse due to climate change. Building storm resistant infrastructure in storm-prone areas is always a good idea, regardless of the vagaries of climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2018, Hurricane Michael struck Panama City, Florida, as a Category 5 storm, and destroyed a large part of the nearby Tyndall Air Force Base (TAFB). Since then, reconstruction has been underway at the base, which WaPo asserts is \u201cthreatened by climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WaPo claims the new base needs to \u201cbe able to withstand rising seas, stronger storms and other threats,\u201d but while it is true that sea levels have been rising in that location, sea level rise itself is only part of the picture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WaPo cherry picks sea level rise data to project an unusually high expected rate of rise in and around Panama City. Rather than looking at the entire 30-year time period over which climate change is measured, WaPo cites sea level data in the area beginning in 2010. During the previous 18 year of modest global warming, measured sea level rise at Panama City had slowed considerably from the previous decades and was virtually flat. It is interesting that WaPo chooses to highlight only a segment of recent sea level rise during the past 30 years of climate change, in fact beginning its estimates of the rate of rise at the period when the rate of rise in the area was at its nadir or slowest rate, over the entire time that sea levels have been continuously measured at Panama City.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason for the recent increase in sea level rise merits further research since other coastal tide gauges, in nearby Alabama, for instance, show record no rapid increase in the rate of rise after 2010. Since climate change is a global phenomenon and rates of sea level rise differ significantly from one tide gauge to the next abutting the same bodies of water, it is almost certainly the case that Panama City\u2019s recent rate of increase is due to local conditions. As\u00a0Climate Realism<\/em>\u00a0often<\/a>\u00a0points out, factors such as the rate of land subsidence (sinking) due to local geology and\/or human-caused groundwater withdrawals and erosion, regularly result in significant changes in measured sea level rise at specific locations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WaPo notes that builders undertaking the reconstruction of the TAFB are using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s \u201chigh\u201d rate of rise scenario when rebuilding and hardening the base in the face of future climate change. This high scenario is exceedingly unlikely, almost certainly being based on modeled RCP 8.5 emission scenarios, which Climate Realism has repeatedly explained,\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0here<\/a>, for example, to be highly implausible if not impossible. In addition, TAFB sits approximately 26 feet above sea level, so even an extremely unrealistic modeled rise of seven feet by the end of the century would be insufficient to compromise military operations at the base. Still, hurricanes do bring storm surges, so it is reasonable to plan for \u201cbetter safe than sorry\u201d scenarios for long-lasting infrastructure, especially in a location that is prone to tropical storms and hurricanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moving on to WaPo\u2019s assertion that storms are getting stronger. This is simply false, a claim clearly refuted by hard data on hurricane numbers and severity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As covered by\u00a0Climate Realism<\/em>\u00a0many times,\u00a0here<\/a>,\u00a0here<\/a>, and\u00a0here<\/a>, for example, existing data shows that hurricanes are neither getting stronger nor more are they forming more frequently. (See figure 1, hurricane frequency)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) \u2014 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL. https:\/\/climatlas.com\/tropical\/<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In addition, no trend of increasing tropical cyclone energy in the Northern Hemisphere is found in existing data. (see Figure 2, below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 2: Figure: Last 50-years+ of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line\/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line\/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE. https:\/\/climatlas.com\/tropical\/<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

WaPo goes on to discuss other efforts being undertaking, besides building stronger hurricane-proof structures, to decrease the chances coastal flooding and erosion, such as \u201cefforts to restore dunes and sea grass meadows; the construction of a \u2018living shoreline\u2019 composed of natural materials such as plants and rock and the installation of submerged oyster reef breakwater that can reduce wave energy and erosion.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are good ideas, especially since coastal erosion is one of the factors that significantly impact local rates of sea level rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no justification for WaPo to\u00a0falsely claim<\/a>\u00a0that climate change was responsible for the severity of Hurricane Michael in 2018, or that it is making such extreme storms more likely. Building stronger and well-planned infrastructure, especially on a military base located on a barrier island in an active hurricane area, and reducing coastal erosion are good ways to make the base more resilient to extreme weather and gradual sea level rise. This is true regardless of whether or not storms are getting more extreme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Heartland Institute<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Heartland Institute is one of the world\u2019s leading free-market think tanks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is a national nonprofit research and education organization based in Arlington Heights, Illinois. Its mission is to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weather resilient reconstruction makes sense, even though data does not support the claim made by WaPo that hurricanes are getting worse due to climate change. Building storm resistant infrastructure in storm-prone areas is always a good idea, regardless of the vagaries of climate change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":272426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818104,691821729],"class_list":{"0":"post-272415","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-hurricanes","10":"tag-washington-post","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-329.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18RN","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":349505,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=349505","url_meta":{"origin":272415,"position":0},"title":"Right, Washington Post, Climate Change Isn\u2019t To Blame for Billion Dollar Disasters","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/30\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Washington Post (WaPo) recently published an article titled \u201cThe real reason billion-dollar disasters like Hurricane Helene are growing more common,\u201d which accurately explained that billion dollar disasters are not getting more common because the storms are getting more extreme or common, but rather that economic and population trends have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"billion-dollar disaster\"","block_context":{"text":"billion-dollar disaster","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=billion-dollar-disaster"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00Screenshot-2024-10-30-095249-1024x695.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00Screenshot-2024-10-30-095249-1024x695.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00Screenshot-2024-10-30-095249-1024x695.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00Screenshot-2024-10-30-095249-1024x695.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":253560,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253560","url_meta":{"origin":272415,"position":1},"title":"No, Washington Post, Tax Season is Not Getting Longer Due to \u2018Climate Change\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/18\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Washington Post\u00a0(WaPo) ran a story on April 17, 2023, titled \u201cTax season is getting longer. 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