{"id":272340,"date":"2023-08-09T13:53:22","date_gmt":"2023-08-09T11:53:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272340"},"modified":"2023-08-09T13:53:25","modified_gmt":"2023-08-09T11:53:25","slug":"hunga-tonga-mysteries","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272340","title":{"rendered":"Hunga-Tonga Mysteries"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, Anthony Watts posted a most interesting discussion of the Hunga-Tonga volcano, entitled \u201cRecord Global Temperatures Driven by Hunga-Tonga Volcanic Water Vapor \u2013 Visualized<\/a>\u201c. I found some curiosities worth discussing in the post.First was the delay between \u201ccause\u201d and \u201ceffect\u201d. Here\u2019s Ryan Maue\u2019s graph showing the conundrum:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1. Output of a climate reanalysis model of the 2-meter surface temperature. This shows a big jump in mid-March.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now, the Hunga-Tonga volcano erupted on 14 January 2022. My questions are \u2026 why is there a ~ 14-month delay before the mid-March 2023 temperature jump shown in the red square in Figure 1?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And why does the eruption have no visible immediate effects?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I mean, we\u2019re talking about changes in radiation due to water vapor, and they are instantaneous\u2014as soon as the water vapor concentration changes, the radiation changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And why is there nearly as much warming from November 2022 to the mid-March date of the purported \u201cjump\u201d as there is after the date of the \u201cjump\u201d?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some folks have said that it\u2019s because it takes time for the water vapor to spread around the stratosphere. In his post, Anthony quoted from a study entitled \u201cGlobal perturbation of stratospheric water and aerosol burden by Hunga eruption<\/a>\u201d regarding the huge quantity of water vapor injected into the stratosphere. But here\u2019s another quote from that same paper:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Owing to the extreme injection altitude, the volcanic plume has circumnavigated the Earth in only one week and dispersed nearly pole-to-pole in three months.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So we should have seen some kind of change within a few months of the eruption \u2026 but there\u2019s no sign of that in the data above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, Ryan Maue\u2019s graph doesn\u2019t show observed temperatures. Instead, it\u2019s the output of a climate \u201creanalysis\u201d model. So I thought that in addition, I\u2019d look at, you know \u2026 actual observations. I was going to start with the Berkeley Earth temperatures. But they only extend to March 2023, so they wouldn\u2019t show the purported jump in temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So instead, I looked at the UAH MSU satellite atmospheric temperatures. Let me start with the temperature of the lower stratosphere because it\u2019s there that the water vapor was injected, so it\u2019s there that we should see the main effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 2. UAH MSU lower stratosphere temperatures.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You can see the effect on the stratosphere of the large eruptions of the late 20th century, Pinatubo and El Chichon. The temperature peak just before the Hunga-Tonga eruption is likely a combination of the White Island and Taal eruptions in December 2019 and January 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there\u2019s no sign at all of the Hunga-Tonga eruption. Nor is there any sign of the purported jump in temperatures in mid-March 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moving down in altitude, here\u2019s the temperature of the tropopause, which is the altitude where the stratosphere meets the troposphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 3. UAH MSU tropopause temperatures.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The signals of the earlier eruptions are less distinct at this lower altitude \u2026 and again, no sign of any effect from Hunga-Tonga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moving lower still, here\u2019re the mid-troposphere temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 4. UAH MSU middle troposphere temperatures.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The signs of the big eruptions are pretty much lost in the noise \u2026 and still no sign of Hunga-Tonga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, here are the UAH MSU lower troposphere temperatures:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 5. UAH MSU lower troposphere temperatures.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Same story. No sign of any effect of Hunga-Tonga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So I figured I might be looking in the wrong place. Where would we expect to see the changes from a volcano in Tonga?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, in Tonga, maybe? \u2026\u00a0unfortunately, there\u2019s no daily temperature data from Tonga. However, here\u2019s data from some of the nearby islands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ll start with Fiji, a lovely place where I lived for nine years. Hey, those waves aren\u2019t gonna surf themselves \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

No immediate effect from the eruption, nor is there any sign of the purported jump in temperatures in mid-March. Next, here\u2019s Tahiti:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Again, no sign of the eruption, nor of any sudden jump. It rose after the \u201cjump\u201d date, but it rose before that date by about the same amount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, Pago Pago in American Samoa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looks like Tahiti, a whole lot of nothing going on. Next, here\u2019s Auckland in New Zealand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

No immediate reaction to the eruption. And if Hunga-Tonga caused the warming in 2023 \u2026 did it also cause the preceding cooling starting at the end of 2022?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moving on, here\u2019s Honiara, my old hometown in the wonderful Solomon Islands where I lived for eight years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Same lotta nothing going on there, temperatures rising both before and after the mid-March \u201cjump\u201d \u2026 finally, here\u2019s Lord Howe Island off of the east coast of Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A year of cooling after Hunga-Tonga, then warming \u2026 say what?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, to look at a larger area, here\u2019s the North Atlantic Oscillation over the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Still not seeing it. There is a rise starting around mid-March, but it\u2019s indistinguishable from the previous rise and is much smaller than the rise pre-Hunga-Tonga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, here\u2019s a different computer reanalysis model of the global temperature. To give a better view of the overall situation, I started the data in 2016 rather than 2022 as in Ryan Maue\u2019s graphic above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As with Ryan Maue\u2019s graph, there\u2019s warming both before and after the \u201cjump\u201d. However, it\u2019s much smaller in total than the warming just before the eruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To close out, here are three different looks at the same post-2016 time span\u2014ERA5, HadCRUT, and UAH MSU results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sorry, but I\u2019m still not seeing any effect from the Hunga-Tonga eruption, nor any big jump in temperatures in mid-March 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What do I conclude from this?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My guess, and it\u2019s nothing but a guess, is as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of the above graphs, including Ryan Maue\u2019s, show any immediate effects from the eruption. I suggest this is because estimates of the global effect of the injected water focus almost exclusively on the warming effects of the increase in downwelling longwave radiation from increased stratospheric water vapor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But they seem to disregard the cooling effects of the decrease in downwelling shortwave (sunshine). This is likely to be significant, since stratospheric water is going to contain a lot of ice, and ice is a good reflector of sunlight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to reflecting sunlight, a second large issue is that water vapor, ice, and water droplets all absorb sunlight, which also cools the earth by reducing downwelling shortwave at the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, I\u2019m just not buying that an injection of water into the stratosphere that has\u00a0\u201ccircumnavigated the Earth in only one week and dispersed nearly pole-to-pole in three months\u201d<\/em>\u00a0would a) have zero immediate cooling or warming effects, zero six-month effects, and zero one-year effects \u2026 but b) would still cause an upwards step-change in temperature fourteen months later. I may be missing something, but I see no feasible physical process that would cause that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS\u2014As folks who regularly read WUWT likely know, I\u2019m happy to defend my own words and I\u2019m willing to admit when they\u2019re wrong. I cannot do the same for your interpretation of my words. So when commenting, please QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS you\u2019re discussing. Saves lots of problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PPS\u2014For those who enjoy such things, here\u2019s my story of one of my adventures in Tonga, entitled \u201cOld Bill Rises From The Dead<\/a>\u201c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A year of cooling after Hunga-Tonga, then warming \u2026 say what?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":272371,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821720,691821719,691820788,691821722,691821721],"class_list":{"0":"post-272340","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-reanalysis-model","9":"tag-hunga-tonga-volcano","10":"tag-north-atlantic-oscillation","11":"tag-stratospheric-water-vapor","12":"tag-uah-msu-satellite","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0La-erupcion-del-volcan-submarino-Hunga-Tonga-se-sintio-en-todo-el-mundo.jpg?fit=1300%2C1021&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18QA","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":269225,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269225","url_meta":{"origin":272340,"position":0},"title":"Ryan Maue on Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai Submarine Volcano.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s straightforward how to run a radiative transfer model to determine the impacts of adding 150M metric tons of water to the stratosphere. 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It was a genuine one in 100, even 200-year event and was reasonably expected to produce temporary weather\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":284307,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284307","url_meta":{"origin":272340,"position":4},"title":"2022 Hunga Tonga underwater volcanic eruption injected 165 million tons of water vapor & acidic gases into stratosphere & affected the ozone layer","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai volcano\u00a0erupted\u00a0on Jan. 15, it sent a tsunami racing around the world and set off a sonic boom that circled the globe twice. The underwater eruption in the South Pacific Ocean also blasted an enormous plume of water vapor into Earth\u2019s stratosphere \u2013 enough to fill\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"acidic gases\"","block_context":{"text":"acidic gases","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=acidic-gases"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":339847,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=339847","url_meta":{"origin":272340,"position":5},"title":"\u201cWe should have better answers by now\u201d: Broken Climate Models Can\u2019t even Explain the Recent Warm Bump","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"If climate models can\u2019t even get heat spikes right, what use are they?","rel":"","context":"In \"2023 temperature anomaly\"","block_context":{"text":"2023 temperature anomaly","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023-temperature-anomaly"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01642472197181.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272340","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=272340"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272340\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":272373,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/272340\/revisions\/272373"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/272371"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=272340"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=272340"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=272340"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}