{"id":272254,"date":"2023-08-08T18:52:54","date_gmt":"2023-08-08T16:52:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272254"},"modified":"2023-08-08T18:52:57","modified_gmt":"2023-08-08T16:52:57","slug":"tonga-explosions-weather-effects-probably-small","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272254","title":{"rendered":"Tonga explosion\u2019s weather effects probably small"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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From Net Zero Watch<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The weather in many regions of the world has been particularly noteworthy recently. But what\u2019s behind it?<\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Dr David Whitehouse, Science editor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some have pointed to the violent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai (HTHH) eruption on 15th January this year which was the largest explosion ever recorded by modern instruments \u2013 far larger than any nuclear test. It was the most powerful explosion since the 1883 Krakatoa event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Producing the highest known eruption column in history, its effects reached the mesosphere. Because the volcano was 150 metres below sea level the explosion injected water vapour as high as 53 km. Large amounts of water ended up in the stratosphere, surpassing anything we have seen since satellite observation of such events commenced in the 1970s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Image: NOAA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

According to\u00a0an assessment<\/a>\u00a0of the event researchers said it, \u201cranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Observations from NASA\u2019s Aura satellite estimates that the explosion may have added 10% of the typical amount of water vapour into the stratosphere. Water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas because it traps heat over a wider range of the infra-red spectrum than carbon dioxide. This effect is short-lived though as it soon enters the natural water cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However unlike previous eruptions it may not cool the surface but warm it. This is because it released little in the way of sunlight-reflecting aerosols. The effect could be quite small, or it might not. One estimate suggests 0.035\u00b0C over the next 5 years which is within the \u201cnoise\u201d of variability. So HTHH is likely to have only a small effect \u2014 as far as we know at present.\u00a0Jucker at al<\/a>on the other hand suggest the effect could be long-term winter warming in the northern hemisphere and cooling over Australia in winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The recent warmth has also been attributed to El Nino; but it is currently still rather weak, although\u00a0strengthening.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus is seems unlikely that these events have significantly affected recent weather, though we should heed the words of Agatha Christie who once wrote: \u201cAny\u00a0coincidence is\u00a0worth\u00a0noticing. You can throw it away later if it is only a\u00a0coincidence.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Feedback: david.whitehouse@netzerowatch.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The weather in many regions of the world has been particularly noteworthy recently. But what\u2019s behind it?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":272261,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818958,691821702,691818491,691821703],"class_list":{"0":"post-272254","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-explosion","9":"tag-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai-hthh","10":"tag-nasa","11":"tag-water-vapour","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0hungatonga_goes_2022015_lrg-2048x1024-1.jpg?fit=2048%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18Pc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":253265,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253265","url_meta":{"origin":272254,"position":0},"title":"2022 Tongan volcanic eruption was largest natural explosion in more than a century, new study finds","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The 2022 eruption of a submarine volcano in Tonga was more powerful than the largest U.S. nuclear explosion, according to a new study led by scientists at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science and the Khaled bin Sultan Living Oceans Foundation.","rel":"","context":"In \"2022 eruption\"","block_context":{"text":"2022 eruption","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2022-eruption"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0tonga-volcano.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0tonga-volcano.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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weather\"","block_context":{"text":"extreme weather","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=extreme-weather"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/02ILX63FC2UPDNO4Z566FKYWGHM.jpg?fit=1200%2C901&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/02ILX63FC2UPDNO4Z566FKYWGHM.jpg?fit=1200%2C901&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/02ILX63FC2UPDNO4Z566FKYWGHM.jpg?fit=1200%2C901&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/02ILX63FC2UPDNO4Z566FKYWGHM.jpg?fit=1200%2C901&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/02ILX63FC2UPDNO4Z566FKYWGHM.jpg?fit=1200%2C901&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 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The underwater eruption in the South Pacific Ocean also blasted an enormous plume of water vapor into Earth\u2019s stratosphere \u2013 enough to fill\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"acidic gases\"","block_context":{"text":"acidic gases","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=acidic-gases"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":269451,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269451","url_meta":{"origin":272254,"position":3},"title":"The Tonga Underwater Volcano Eruption May Have Had a Larger Warming Effect Than Reported","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Initial scientific estimates were 50-million metric tons of water injected into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai submarine volcano.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":269225,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269225","url_meta":{"origin":272254,"position":4},"title":"Ryan Maue on Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai Submarine Volcano.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s straightforward how to run a radiative transfer model to determine the impacts of adding 150M metric tons of water to the stratosphere. 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