{"id":272011,"date":"2023-08-07T13:51:33","date_gmt":"2023-08-07T11:51:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272011"},"modified":"2023-08-07T13:51:36","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T11:51:36","slug":"a-fairy-story-about-offshore-wind-costs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272011","title":{"rendered":"A fairy story about offshore wind costs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Net Zero Watch<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Andrew Montford<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Introduction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Whitehall has just published the latest version<\/a> of its estimates of the cost of generating electricity from different sources. The last edition, in 2020, was a source of considerable entertainment because of the absurd claims it made about the costs of offshore wind power, a key factor in determining the cost of Net Zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Capital costs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Notably, the authors claimed that by 2025 a megawatt of offshore wind capacity would only cost \u00a31.5 million, around half of what recent windfarms have cost. I had a lot of fun pointing out that Dogger Bank A, due to be commissioned in 2025, had already spent \u00a31.1 million per megawatt by the end of last year, and it hadn\u2019t even finished putting in the foundations!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I like to think that my ridicule of the efforts of the DESNZ bureaucrats has had an effect, because in the new edition, the capital cost has mysteriously doubled(!), returning to a more credible figure of \u00a33 million per megawatt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, remarkably, the overall offshore wind cost estimates is actually slightly lower than in the previous version. This is shown in Figure 1, alongside the earlier estimates, and (optimistic) estimates based on actual data for operational windfarms. The implausibility of the official figures is undeniable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1. BEIS\/DESNZ estimates of the levelised cost of offshore wind, and actuals<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So, given the doubling of the capital costs between the two most recent estimates, how have our friends in Whitehall managed to achieve an overall cost reduction?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Output<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The main way appears to have been to increase the projected output for windfarms, from 51% of capacity last time round, to 61% this year. The authors cite increasing turbine size as an explanation, and indeed the turbine size cited is 14 MW, as compared to 12 GW last time round..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, it\u2019s hard to be polite about this figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s important to recognise that 61% is supposed to represent a lifetime average, and windfarms\u2019 output declines steadily as they get older. If we take an absurdly optimistic estimate of that decline, of 1% per year, it would mean that the first year output would need to be 70%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2 shows the latter figure against the actual performance of recent windfarms by commission date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 2: Offshore wind capacity factors by year of commission \u2013 actual and DESNZ estimate<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 3 shows the same figures by turbine size. There is a strong suggestion that there are declining returns from ever larger turbines, and the DESNZ estimate again looks rather ridiculous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 3: Offshore wind capacity factors by turbine size \u2013 actual and DESNZ estimate<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Opex<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s no different when you look at the operating cost figures. DESNZ\u2019s figure of \u00a356,000 lifetime average for windfarms commissioning in 2025 is completely preposterous. The main driver of operating costs seems to be water depth; larger turbines has, at best, a minimal impact. Recent windfarms in deep water start at well over \u00a3100,000\/MW\/year (Figure 4)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 4: Offshore wind opex by water depth and turbine size<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And operating costs rise steadily as the turbines age. I would expect the lifetime average for Dogger Bank A to be closer to \u00a3200,000\/MW\/year than to \u00a350,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to offshore wind costs, Whitehall is lurching from one ludicrous evidence-free claim to another in a desperate attempt to maintain the pretense that it can be delivered at low cost. In reality, they have no choice but to lie, because cheap renewable energy is central to government\u2019s claims that Net Zero is affordable. And as if to confirm that we are dealing with disinformation, the appearance of the new estimates comes against a background of increasingly shrill demands from the wind industry for\u00a0further subsidy<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 it\u2019s a tipping point, they say. But how can this be if their costs really are as low as DESNZ claims?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A few days ago,\u00a0Philip Hammond<\/a>\u00a0called for politicians to come clean about the costs of Net Zero. He was right to do so, and the first step along that road will be for ministers and civil servants to come clean about the cost of renewable energy. Nobody believes their fairy tales any longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Whitehall has just published the\u00a0latest version\u00a0of its estimates of the cost of generating electricity from different sources. The last edition, in 2020, was a source of considerable entertainment because of the absurd claims it made about the costs of offshore wind power, a key factor in determining the cost of Net Zero.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":272023,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691820501,691818154,691818301,691818130],"class_list":{"0":"post-272011","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-costs","9":"tag-net-zero","10":"tag-offshore-wind","11":"tag-renewables","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-236.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18Lh","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":287654,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=287654","url_meta":{"origin":272011,"position":0},"title":"The myth of cheap offshore wind has been exposed","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The pervasive narrative about offshore wind in recent years has been that\u00a0costs are falling and that wind power is cheap. But scratch below the surface and you find that things are not quite so rosy.\u00a0 By Net Zero Watch London, 10 November\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Net Zero Watch is calling for an investigation after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Andrew Montford\"","block_context":{"text":"Andrew Montford","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=andrew-montford"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/095-HAVE-WE-BLOWN-IT.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/095-HAVE-WE-BLOWN-IT.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/095-HAVE-WE-BLOWN-IT.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/095-HAVE-WE-BLOWN-IT.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/095-HAVE-WE-BLOWN-IT.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":288130,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288130","url_meta":{"origin":272011,"position":1},"title":"Government has surrendered to green lobbyists","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From The Net Zero Watch Generators awarded large and open-ended price increases to new offshore wind, with a minimum 66% increase. Government has offered further handouts contingent on delivery of a \u2018low carbon supply chain\u2019 and \u2018social benefits\u2019 This can only increase costs to consumers, who should expect hefty increases\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"66% price increase\"","block_context":{"text":"66% price increase","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=66-price-increase"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/8a5a2033-16e9-4fce-b6ba-afcc26fb7c45.jpg?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/8a5a2033-16e9-4fce-b6ba-afcc26fb7c45.jpg?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/8a5a2033-16e9-4fce-b6ba-afcc26fb7c45.jpg?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/8a5a2033-16e9-4fce-b6ba-afcc26fb7c45.jpg?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/8a5a2033-16e9-4fce-b6ba-afcc26fb7c45.jpg?fit=1200%2C632&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":272157,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272157","url_meta":{"origin":272011,"position":2},"title":"Lord Frost ridicules Whitehall renewables cost estimates","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Lord Frost has called on ministers and civil servants to come clean about the cost of wind power, echoing last week\u2019s statement by Lord Hammond. 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