{"id":271828,"date":"2023-08-06T16:55:41","date_gmt":"2023-08-06T14:55:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271828"},"modified":"2023-08-06T16:55:44","modified_gmt":"2023-08-06T14:55:44","slug":"massive-water-and-cloud-boost-from-tonga-eruption-could-explain-recent-unusual-weather-patterns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271828","title":{"rendered":"Massive Water and Cloud Boost From Tonga Eruption Could Explain Recent Unusual Weather Patterns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0CHRIS MORRISON<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The accurate\u00a0satellite record<\/a>\u00a0confirms that last month was an unusual weather period with higher than normal temperature recordings on both land and at sea. It was the warmest July since 1979, it tied with March 2015 for the second warmest departure from the norm and it was the warmest month for tropical land. Of course, the climate alarmists had a field day, with \u2018global boiling\u2019 now making an official UN appearance. Inexplicably missing from all the hysteria, however, was any mention that NASA scientists have recently confirmed that the Tonga volcanic eruption in January last year boosted water content in the stratosphere by a massive, and weather-changing, 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Scientists have been shocked by the dramatic increase in water vapour spread around the globe by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai submarine volcano. Water vapour is the most powerful of all the greenhouses gases since, unlike the others, it traps heat across a wide part of the infra-red spectrum. It accounts for about 4% of all atmospheric gases, compared to 0.04% for carbon dioxide, but its effect is relatively short-lived since it re-enters the natural hydrological cycle. Nevertheless, Tonga water vapour and its associated clouds could last in the atmosphere for a few years, and scientists suggest both temperature increases and disturbed weather patterns will continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A group of NASA scientists have published a paper noting Tonga\u2019s \u201chigh impact\u201d consequences. Unlike most volcanic eruptions, Tonga released few aerosols such as dust and ash into the atmosphere which cause temporary falls in temperature. In 1815, Mount Tambora exploded on the island of Sumbawa causing widespread cooling and a subsequent \u201cyear without a summer\u201d. In Tonga\u2019s case, specific geological conditions threw vast amounts of super-heated water up to 50 kilometres into the air. Such is the \u201cunprecedented\u201d amounts of water involved, the NASA scientists believe it could remain in the atmosphere for serval years. The scientists say they will continue to monitor volcanic gases from this eruption, along with future ones, \u201cto better quantify their varying roles in climate\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not that it is likely that the spoon-fed activists in the mainstream media will be much interested. Any warming will be gratefully seized upon to promote the so-called climate emergency, and the collectivist Net Zero political solution. The scientific jury is still deliberating on the effects of the Tonga eruption, but recent unusual weather changes occurring at a time when water vapour has been given such a massive boost, must rank as a possible cause. As the\u00a0Daily Sceptic<\/em>\u00a0has often noted, the tragedy for any commentator too afraid to challenge the prevailing narrative about the climate is that whole areas of debate around physics, chemistry and geology are off limits for fear that alternative explanations will cast doubt on the carefully constructed political narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cliff Mass is the Professor of Atmospheric Science at the University of Washington. He has long been critical of catastrophising about individual weather events. According to Mass, the\u00a0golden rule of weather extremes<\/a>\u00a0is: \u201cThe more extreme a climate or weather record is, the greater the contribution of natural variability, and the smaller the contribution of human-caused global warming.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier work from a\u00a0group of European scientists<\/a>\u00a0had drawn attention to the scale of the Tonga discharge. They concluded that the unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation caused by Hunga \u201cranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observation era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate\u201d. They also observed that Hunga was likely to have been the most explosive event of the modern observational era, while comparisons were made to the eruption of Mount Krakatoa in 1883.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0latest work<\/a>\u00a0from NASA analysed satellite data showing the volume of water injected into the atmosphere between 12 and 53 kms. \u201cWe\u2019ve never seen anything like it,\u201d\u00a0commented lead author Luis Millan<\/a>. \u201cWe had to carefully inspect all the measurements in the plume to make sure they were trustworthy,\u201d he added. Volcanoes rarely inject much water into the stratosphere. In the 18 years since NASA has been taking measurements, only two others produced appreciable amounts, but these were said to be \u201cmere blips\u201d compared with Tonga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems that the smart alarmist money is backing the Tonga warming effect, with some shorting of the once promising El Nino boost becoming apparent. Signals from the latter stable are not wholly sanguine. Sea surface temperature departures from the norm, known as anomalies, are mixed, notes the\u00a0U.S. weather service NOAA<\/a>. \u201cCollectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weak El Nino\u201d it adds. Odds can change \u2013 it is after all the weather. Forecasters are said to favour continued growth of the El Nino oscillation through the fall, peaking this winter with an 81% chance of \u201cmoderate-to-strong\u201d intensity. In forecaster-speak, this translates as we haven\u2019t a clue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the\u00a0<\/em>Daily Sceptic\u2019s Environment Editor.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Inexplicably missing from all the hysteria, however, was any mention that NASA scientists have recently confirmed that the Tonga volcanic eruption in January last year boosted water content in the stratosphere by a massive, and weather-changing, 10%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":271836,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818514,691821437,691821327,691818556],"class_list":{"0":"post-271828","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-extreme-weather","9":"tag-global-boiling","10":"tag-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai","11":"tag-tonga","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/02ILX63FC2UPDNO4Z566FKYWGHM.jpg?fit=1200%2C901&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18Ik","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":269451,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269451","url_meta":{"origin":271828,"position":0},"title":"The Tonga Underwater Volcano Eruption May Have Had a Larger Warming Effect Than Reported","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Initial scientific estimates were 50-million metric tons of water injected into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai submarine volcano.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":365515,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365515","url_meta":{"origin":271828,"position":1},"title":"EXCLUSIVE: Sensational Findings Point to Hunga Tonga Eruption as Prime Suspect Behind Recent Temperature Spike","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In January 2022, a massive underwater volcano called Hunga Tonga suddenly erupted and shot so much water into the upper atmosphere that levels in the stratosphere rose suddenly by at least 10%. 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But, detailed climate model simulations are needed to disentangle the atmospheric circulation changes that lead to non-linear feedbacks. The climate is \u201cabnormal\u201d right now, aside from the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":274156,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=274156","url_meta":{"origin":271828,"position":3},"title":"Hunga Tonga & Its Role In Rising Global\u00a0Temperatures","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The aerosol effect of Hunga Tonga would not have been as great as Pinatubo\u2019s, but it is still likely to have been significant. 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