{"id":271457,"date":"2023-08-04T17:04:59","date_gmt":"2023-08-04T15:04:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271457"},"modified":"2023-08-04T17:05:02","modified_gmt":"2023-08-04T15:05:02","slug":"new-study-climate-models-mired-in-terra-incognita-lack-the-resolution-to-model-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271457","title":{"rendered":"New Study: Climate Models Mired In \u2018Terra Incognita\u2019 \u2013 Lack The Resolution To Model Climate Change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From NoTricksZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0<\/em>3. August 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201c\u2026models are pushing further and further into the domain of the \u2018terra incognita.’\u201d \u2013 Stephens et al., 2023<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is well established in climate science that water (1) \u201cexerts a fundamental influence on the physical climate system and on climate change,\u201d (2) clouds \u201ccontrol the planetary albedo and the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface,\u201d and (3) \u201cocean circulation\u2026determines and modulates the climate of many regions of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there\u2019s a rather large problem here. When it comes to climate models, the unknown, unexplored \u201cterra incognita zone is what we experience today.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cExisting climate models\u2026cannot resolve the detailed structure and life cycles of systems such as tropical cyclones, depressions, and persistent high pressure systems, which are key in the coupling of the energy and water cycle.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

While ocean circulation determines the regional climate, \u201cpresent day global models are also unable to resolve ocean currents that are fundamental to climate variability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the surface-troposphere altitude, convection dominates heat transfer. While radiation only accounts for 8% of the heat transfer process here,\u00a0convection accounts for 67%<\/a><\/strong>. But today\u2019s climate models cannot \u201cresolve convection.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cThere is now compelling evidence the lack of resolution of coarse global models and even coarsely resolved mesoscale cloud models and the inability to explicitly resolve convection specifically is a major obstacle in making the advances needed to confront important Earth science challenges of today.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Assessing Earth\u2019s top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy imbalance (EEI) is fundamental to determining the extent and rate of global (ocean) warming. A measured accuracy of less than \u00b10.3 W\/m\u00b2 (\u00b10.1 W\/m\u00b2) is required for attribution (to, for example, human CO2 emissions), and yet the absolute accuracy of TOA measurements is \u00b12 W\/m\u00b2, and long-term estimates of global mean EEI are \u201cnot possible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201c\u2026none of the techniques available today enable us to estimate the EEI with the perceived required accuracy less than \u00b10.3 W\/m\u00b2, let alone with an aspirational accuracy of \u00b10.1 W\/m\u00b2.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Claiming that we know it is humans controlling the climate today is thus a statement of belief. The claim has no scientific meaning or testability. Indeed, it is unfalsifiable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Image Source:\u00a0Stephens et al., 2023<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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