{"id":271439,"date":"2023-08-04T15:26:08","date_gmt":"2023-08-04T13:26:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271439"},"modified":"2023-08-04T15:26:22","modified_gmt":"2023-08-04T13:26:22","slug":"earlier-and-earlier-high-arctic-spring-replaced-by-extreme-year-to-year-variation-say-researchers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271439","title":{"rendered":"Earlier and earlier high-Arctic spring replaced by \u2018extreme year-to-year variation\u2019, say\u00a0researchers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Tallbloke’s Talkshop<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

July 30, 2023 by\u00a0oldbrew<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Still waiting<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This observation doesn\u2019t correlate with monotonic CO2 rise data. Apparently we\u2019re left looking at \u2018tremendous natural climate variability\u2019, which doesn\u2019t sound much like the claims and expectations of prevalent IPCC-type theories. The researchers say \u2018temperature increases have stalled\u2019, and \u2018the previously observed trend has disappeared completely\u2019. Little wonder then that some Arctic alarmists have been less shrill in recent years \u2014 their trend melted away.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n


\u2013 \u2013 \u2013
About 15 years ago, researchers reported that the timing of spring in high-Arctic Greenland had advanced at some of the fastest rates of change ever seen anywhere in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, according to new evidence, that earlier pattern has since been completely erased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead of coming earlier and earlier, it seems the timing of Arctic spring is now driven by tremendous climate variability with drastic differences from one year to the next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs scientists we are obliged to revisit previous work to see whether the knowledge obtained at that time still holds,\u201d says Niels Martin Schmidt of Aarhus University in Denmark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe looked at previously reported extreme rates of phenological advancements in the Arctic and found that directional advancement is no longer the prevailing pattern. Actually, the previously observed trend has disappeared completely and has been replaced by extreme year-to-year variation in the onset of spring.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global changes in climate are expected to take place faster in the Arctic than in places at lower latitudes. To follow those trends, researchers at Zackenberg in Northeast Greenland launched an ecosystem-wide monitoring program in 1996.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among a suite of ecosystem variables, the program also tracks the timing of spring based on flowering plants, arthropod emergence, and bird nesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the first 10 years of data were analyzed for 1996-2005, the findings showed a clear pattern of advancement across plants and animals included in the study. For instance, they saw some arthropods emerging up to 4 weeks earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the new study, Schmidt and his colleagues wanted to see how these trends look now that they have 15 additional years of data available.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After analyzing the phenological data from 1996-2020, they report little evidence of directional change in the timing of events even as climate change continues. The researchers attribute this shift to a high degree of climate variability from year to year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat the extreme rates of phenological advancement we reported back in 2007 would not have continued unabated was not surprising to us,\u201d Schmidt said. \u201cHowever, that we see such a consistent shift from directional to extreme variability across so many different organisms and that the entire ecosystem now seems driven by variation in climatic conditions, was surprising.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schmidt says that the previous pattern showed steadily rising temperatures and declining snow cover. Now, what they see is a lot messier. Temperature increases have stalled while snow cover fluctuates dramatically from year to year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSome years have almost no snow in spring, whereas others have snow on the ground way into the summer season,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis leaves us with a generally warmer but much more unpredictable spring climate \u2014 and this is where the second contributor to the observed phenological shift kicks in. Some species appear unable to take advantage of the warmer conditions in spring and appear to have reached the limits of their phenological plasticity.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Full article\u00a0here<\/a><\/em>.
\u2013 \u2013 \u2013
Study:\u00a0Little directional change in the timing of Arctic spring phenology over the past 25 years<\/a>\u00a0(July 2023)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—————————————————————————————————————————————–<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This observation doesn\u2019t correlate with monotonic CO2 rise data. Apparently we\u2019re left looking at \u2018tremendous natural climate variability\u2019, which doesn\u2019t sound much like the claims and expectations of prevalent IPCC-type theories. The researchers say \u2018temperature increases have stalled\u2019, and \u2018the previously observed trend has disappeared completely\u2019. Little wonder then that some Arctic alarmists have been less shrill in recent years \u2014 their trend melted away.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":271455,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819671,691818056,691818076],"class_list":{"0":"post-271439","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-arctic-ice","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-co2","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/059829.jpg?fit=3000%2C1985&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18C3","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":342614,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342614","url_meta":{"origin":271439,"position":0},"title":"The Overlooked Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Arctic Sea Ice Loss: A Challenge to the CO2-Centric Narrative","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The study on atmospheric rivers has given us a valuable insight into the complexity of Arctic sea ice variability. The role of ARs in both ice melt and recovery provides a clear challenge to the simplistic view that Arctic changes are primarily driven by CO2 levels. This should prompt us\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0arctic_ice_loss.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0arctic_ice_loss.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0arctic_ice_loss.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0arctic_ice_loss.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0arctic_ice_loss.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":353854,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=353854","url_meta":{"origin":271439,"position":1},"title":"When Scientists, Skeptics and Eco-Loons All Agree, Except for Catastrophic Storytelling","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"We all agree that the wind-driven surface flow of the Atlantic Multidecadal Overturning Circulation (AMOC) brings precious warmth from the tropics towards the Arctic & enables a milder climate in Europe and North America. We all agree it\u2019s the oceans that tremendously effect climate and create temperature changes that cannot\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"arctic temperatures\"","block_context":{"text":"arctic temperatures","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-temperatures"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0AMOC_Fig_1.jpg?fit=1200%2C707&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":294385,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294385","url_meta":{"origin":271439,"position":2},"title":"The Embarrassing Pause In Arctic Sea Ice Loss Has Lasted 17 Years, Defying IPCC, NSIDC Predictions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists have been using the year 2007 as the starting point for assessing Arctic sea ice trends for nearly a decade. A\u00a02015 study\u00a0published in\u00a0Nature Climate Change\u00a0reported a \u201cnear-zero trend\u201d in summer sea ice over the 7 years from 2007-2013.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0september-arctic-sea-ice-second-lowest-on-record-climate-change-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":346897,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=346897","url_meta":{"origin":271439,"position":3},"title":"New Antarctic Greening Study Wilfully Blind to CO2 Fertilization","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The study published in\u00a0Nature Geoscience, titled \u201cSustained Greening of the Antarctic Peninsula Observed from Satellites,\u201d focuses on the observed increase in vegetation, particularly moss-dominated ecosystems, on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). While it attributes this \u201cgreening\u201d to recent regional warming trends, the paper conspicuously neglects the broader global phenomenon known as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Greening\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Greening","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-greening"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00antarctic_greening_-_matt_amesbury-1200x800-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00antarctic_greening_-_matt_amesbury-1200x800-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00antarctic_greening_-_matt_amesbury-1200x800-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00antarctic_greening_-_matt_amesbury-1200x800-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/00antarctic_greening_-_matt_amesbury-1200x800-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":397239,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397239","url_meta":{"origin":271439,"position":4},"title":"600b tons of carbon emissions and Arctic Sea ice stays the same for 20 years","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Since 2005, humans have emitted one third of all the emissions we\u2019ve ever put out \u2014 some 600 billion tons of CO2. Yet the Arctic Sea ice is the same as it was twenty years ago. And even though the modelers cling to the excuse that this is \u201cconsistent with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OIGP.5cJ.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OIGP.5cJ.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OIGP.5cJ.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/OIGP.5cJ.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":387689,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=387689","url_meta":{"origin":271439,"position":5},"title":"New Study: The Arctic Was 9\u00b0C Warmer Than Today During The Holocene Thermal Maximum","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Holocene (11,700 to 8,200 years ago) Arctic (Svalbard) temperatures \u201cwere up to 9\u00b0C higher than today\u201d according to the authors of a\u00a0new\u00a0Nature\u00a0journal study. At that time CO2 was thought to only hover around 260 ppm.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQMcRLd2Kk4Jh0iE7fNP3obsf-5tR9k5fVcJANmyS0v_l4UsMkrpljtXMMH9QGQ0XC4lEYVH02dSASIRTspYwZ2GFSRYa5qkzCW-Dy1IGaLxPsjL7NzdZrdXecJCsKk-N6Z10LH-LnRaS7w7jxDwRJM70cvYJA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQMcRLd2Kk4Jh0iE7fNP3obsf-5tR9k5fVcJANmyS0v_l4UsMkrpljtXMMH9QGQ0XC4lEYVH02dSASIRTspYwZ2GFSRYa5qkzCW-Dy1IGaLxPsjL7NzdZrdXecJCsKk-N6Z10LH-LnRaS7w7jxDwRJM70cvYJA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQMcRLd2Kk4Jh0iE7fNP3obsf-5tR9k5fVcJANmyS0v_l4UsMkrpljtXMMH9QGQ0XC4lEYVH02dSASIRTspYwZ2GFSRYa5qkzCW-Dy1IGaLxPsjL7NzdZrdXecJCsKk-N6Z10LH-LnRaS7w7jxDwRJM70cvYJA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQMcRLd2Kk4Jh0iE7fNP3obsf-5tR9k5fVcJANmyS0v_l4UsMkrpljtXMMH9QGQ0XC4lEYVH02dSASIRTspYwZ2GFSRYa5qkzCW-Dy1IGaLxPsjL7NzdZrdXecJCsKk-N6Z10LH-LnRaS7w7jxDwRJM70cvYJA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQMcRLd2Kk4Jh0iE7fNP3obsf-5tR9k5fVcJANmyS0v_l4UsMkrpljtXMMH9QGQ0XC4lEYVH02dSASIRTspYwZ2GFSRYa5qkzCW-Dy1IGaLxPsjL7NzdZrdXecJCsKk-N6Z10LH-LnRaS7w7jxDwRJM70cvYJA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271439","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=271439"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271439\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":271456,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/271439\/revisions\/271456"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/271455"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=271439"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=271439"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=271439"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}