{"id":271265,"date":"2023-08-03T16:52:27","date_gmt":"2023-08-03T14:52:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271265"},"modified":"2023-08-03T16:52:29","modified_gmt":"2023-08-03T14:52:29","slug":"the-war-on-fossil-fuels-empowers-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271265","title":{"rendered":"The war on fossil fuels empowers China"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From \u00a0CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Don Ritter<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Autocratic\u00a0Producers<\/em>\u00a0(primarily Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, and China) and certain democratic (or semi-democratic)\u00a0Consumers\u00a0<\/em>(fossil fuel-dependent nations, mostly in the Global South), are uniting over oil, gas, coal, petrochemicals, natural gas-derived fertilizers and wind-solar-battery raw materials that are essential for building and maintaining modern industrial nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The implications are enormous, for global commerce, and especially for America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China straddles both worlds. It\u2019s the world\u2019s largest coal producer and consumer \u2013 and the second-largest fossil fuels consumer after the USA. Although the United States remains the planet\u2019s largest oil and gas producer, government policies restrict investment in future domestic production, forcing U.S. companies to\u00a0scour the world to increase production<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The autocratic Producers clearly benefit from America\u2019s declining production, because major Consumers (India, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, and others) that buy oil, gas, and petrochemicals must feed their people, fuel their vehicles, and sustain or grow their economies at a reasonable cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Giant energy producer Russia continues to sustain its economy and finance its war in Ukraine, as it waits for Western electorates to lose patience and reduce military aid. Moscow counts on continued fossil fuel sales to Consumer countries, particularly China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is\u00a0importing record amounts<\/a>\u00a0of oil and gas from Russia, making it the largest financier of Russia\u2019s Ukraine war. China\u2019s dual-use technologies also enter indirectly into the Russian war machine. Courtesy of Saudi Arabia\u2019s Aramco, China is building new refineries and becoming a major petrochemical producer \u2013 even as Biden energy policies curtail U.S. refinery and petrochemical investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Petrochemicals fuel or provide building blocks for just about everything. They, therefore, add tremendous value to the crude oil China imports from Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, America and the West pursue sweeping policies on \u201cmanmade climate change.\u201d That means they deride and downgrade the value of fossil fuels that are the lifeblood of all industrialized nations: Producers, Consumers, and those fortunate or wise enough to play both roles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Western government attitudes toward fossil fuels are derived from fears of a \u201cgrowing climate crisis.\u201d Those attitudes are creating a deep and abiding conflict of interest between the West and both\u00a0the Producer\u00a0<\/em>and\u00a0Consumer nations that view fossil-fuel-dependent economic growth as paramount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Therein lies the conundrum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the United States and West will no longer be major\u00a0Producers<\/em>, where do\u00a0Consumers\u00a0<\/em>turn for the energy and products they require? Unfortunately, they must turn to Producers \u2013 which happen to be autocratic states, which respond to those needs by increasing\u00a0their<\/em>\u00a0oil and gas production, to meet global demand, while simultaneously bolstering their economies and strengthening their autocratic power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Producers friendly to the West (Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Qatar, e.g.) are not the problem right now. But others are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a nutshell, the West\u2019s fossil fuel cutbacks are being replaced on the global economic, strategic, and geo-political stage by an expanding alliance of autocratic Producers that are serving Consumers not just as energy and raw materials suppliers, but as political partners.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, if those Producers continue replacing America\u2019s and the West\u2019s declining oil, gas, and coal supplies, the climate-focused nations will decline as economic and military powers; their influence over climate issues will diminish, and the overall human contribution to climate change will actually grow, as Consumers pursue their own bests interests, which are inextricably linked to fossil fuel use, now and decades from now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China is already the world\u2019s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. It has no intention of abandoning its economic, military, or strategic ambitions \u2013 all of which rely on fossil fuels. But it has now effectively, though not officially, abandoned the Paris Climate Accords. That alone likely makes America\u2019s and the West\u2019s fossil fuel sacrifices on the climate altar both \u201cpainful and pointless<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ironically\u00b8 the U.S. is now\u00a0importing environmentally dirty crude oil<\/a>\u00a0from autocratic, adversarial Producer Venezuela \u2013 rather than expanding its own domestic production. Meanwhile, natural gas exports from Russia to Europe will soon be replaced by Exxon and Chevron\u00a0production in Algeria<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even more ironic (or insane),\u00a0China dominates<\/a>\u00a0the world\u2019s wind, solar, and battery technologies, raw material supply chains, and manufacturing. U.S. politicians may be ramping up\u00a0talk<\/em>\u00a0about reducing dependence on China for critical items related to American economic and national security; they are demanding and pursuing policies that make the USA and West ever more dependent on so-called \u201cclean renewable\u201d energy from\u00a0wind, solar, battery and fossil powerhouse China<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are witnessing a geopolitical shift of historic proportions.<\/em>\u00a0Fossil fuel-friendly China and other autocratic Producers will be the biggest winners; fossil fuel-repressing democratic America and the West will be the biggest losers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, democratic Consumers\u00a0are already and increasingly beholden to the autocratic Producers.<\/em>\u00a0That\u2019s evident from the role that energy supply and demand have likely played in persuading some 80 nations to remain neutral on the Ukraine war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia and OPEC members know the largest and ever-expanding market for their oil, gas, and raw material products is world-leading manufacturer China. That global power, in turn, can more and more manufacture whatever the Producer nations\u00a0<\/em>need.\u00a0China gets fuels and raw materials to feed its vast energy-hungry, export-oriented industries and immense agricultural economy. Other Consumer nations likewise purchase or trade for fossil fuel products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The symbiosis between\u00a0Producers\u00a0and\u00a0Consumers\u00a0<\/em>is clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, no matter how hard they try to deny these realities, or \u201ctransition to renewable energy,\u201d The USA and West will remain dependent on fossil fuels from Producers for decades to come. The\u00a0U.S. Energy Information Agency<\/a>\u00a0predicts that even in 2050, America will still be 65% dependent on fossil fuels for its overall energy needs, versus 79% today. Is a 14% reduction worth all the sacrifices?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The still-growing Chinese manufacturing and military powerhouse will be enriched by the inevitable shift away from Western manufacturers, who will see their costs and prices increase without reliable, reasonably priced fossil-fuel energy and derivative products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s 1.5 billion people \u2013 repressed, surveilled, cajoled, and punished for social infractions \u2013 are nonetheless disciplined, educated, and increasingly productive and wealthy. With the growing prowess and sophistication of its military,\u00a0autocratic<\/em>\u00a0China is the biggest beneficiary of all from the Western strategy of abandoning fossil fuels<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the USA and West continue along their anti-fossil-fuel path, it is quite possible that autocratic Producers will soon dominate the world \u2013 while China becomes their biggest Consumer and the world\u2019s preeminent player, surpassing even the United States. Is this the path we really want to follow?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author<\/h2>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n


Don Ritter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Don Ritter holds a Science Doctorate from MIT and served fourteen\u00a0years on the House of Representatives\u00a0Energy and Commerce\u00a0and\u00a0Science\u00a0and\u00a0Technology Committees. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He was a National Academy of Sciences Fellow in the USSR, speaks fluent Russian, and was Ranking Member on the\u00a0Congressional Helsinki Commission and founding Co-Chair of the\u00a0Baltic States-Ukraine Caucus. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After leaving Congress he created and led the\u00a0National Environmental Policy Institute. He is a founder and President & CEO Emeritus of the\u00a0Afghan American Chamber of Commerce, and a Trustee of the\u00a0Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation (VOC),\u00a0where he co-chairs the Museum Capital Campaign.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Autocratic\u00a0Producers\u00a0(primarily Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, and China) and certain democratic (or semi-democratic)\u00a0Consumers\u00a0(fossil fuel-dependent nations, mostly in the Global South), are uniting over oil, gas, coal, petrochemicals, natural gas-derived fertilizers and wind-solar-battery raw materials that are essential for building and maintaining modern industrial nations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":271275,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818341,691818056,691818102,691818228,691819168],"class_list":{"0":"post-271265","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-china","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-climate-crisis","11":"tag-fossil-fuels","12":"tag-usa","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-95.png?fit=1280%2C853&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18zf","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":271036,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271036","url_meta":{"origin":271265,"position":0},"title":"Abandon Fossil Fuels, Empower China","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Is the Biden Administration so deliberately na\u00efve that it would turn US security over to China?","rel":"","context":"In \"Biden energy policies\"","block_context":{"text":"Biden energy policies","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=biden-energy-policies"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-52.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-52.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-52.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-52.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":272276,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272276","url_meta":{"origin":271265,"position":1},"title":"Without a replacement, abandoning fossil fuels, supports China","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Wind turbines and solar panels that can generate electricity intermittently, are themselves totally dependent on fossil fuels for all their components. 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