{"id":270382,"date":"2023-07-30T15:04:02","date_gmt":"2023-07-30T13:04:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270382"},"modified":"2023-07-30T15:04:05","modified_gmt":"2023-07-30T13:04:05","slug":"epas-power-grid-assumptions-are-disconnected-from-reality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270382","title":{"rendered":"EPA\u2019s power grid assumptions are disconnected from reality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY TRAVIS FISHER:<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. power grid is already straining under excess regulations, with\u00a0blackouts possible<\/a>, but now the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed two more rules that promise to cause even more major problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One is a tailpipe emissions standard that would require 60% of new cars sold in 2030 to be electric. The other is a rule that would force hundreds of power plants to shut down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The unintended consequences of these rules are obscured by the flawed assumptions the EPA uses in assessing the effects they\u2019ll have on grid reliability and cost. People simply cannot make informed decisions about EPA regulations \u2014 like choosing whether to support or oppose them \u2014 when the assessments don\u2019t reflect reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new tailpipe emissions standard is so strict that it requires most new passenger vehicles sold to be electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030. It is a de facto EV mandate that will saddle the nation\u2019s power grid with much more demand (here<\/a>\u00a0are the public comments I provided the EPA on this proposed rule).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The emissions standard for power plants has been called the Clean Power Plan 2.0 because it is EPA\u2019s second attempt to redesign the power sector (the first try was rejected by the Supreme Court). The Clean Power Plan 2.0 is so strict that the only realistic way for many plants to comply is to shut down. It is another de facto mandate \u2014 particularly mandating the closure of existing coal-fired power plants \u2014 that will cause a sharp decrease in the supply available to the U.S. power grid (comments on this rule are due to EPA on Aug. 8 and can be submitted\u00a0here<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The legal problems surrounding these rules are many, but let\u2019s assume for a moment that the Supreme Court upholds them. Are they good policy? What will happen if they go into effect?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EPA says neither rule will cause reliability problems or increase prices. One tactic the agency uses to reach these conclusions is to ignore its other rules (for example, to ignore the power plant rule when analyzing the effects of the tailpipe rule). According to the EPA, the increase in electricity demand from the EV mandate doesn\u2019t conflict with the severe reduction in supply from the power plant rule; they simply assume the companion rules don\u2019t exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The agency then dodges questions about electric reliability by assuming EV charging will only occur when it\u2019s convenient for the power grid. As we see in California, that is simply untrue \u2014 people will charge their EV whenever they want, and many will ignore calls for voluntary conservation during the highest-stress hours on the grid. Such conservation calls are named \u201cflex alerts<\/a>\u201d in California and have become commonplace during the summer months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texas also faces tight grid conditions. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas recently set up a California-style alert program \u2014 called the\u00a0Texas Advisory and Notification System\u00a0<\/a>\u2014 to discourage electricity use when the power grid is stressed, which seems to happen more and more. Notably, California and Texas are both big on EVs. Among the three\u00a0leading EV states<\/a>, the one that doesn\u2019t regularly call for conservation is Florida. But that may have more to do with Florida\u2019s reluctance to force renewables onto its system and close existing power plants, unlike California and Texas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The importance of reliable supply brings us to EPA\u2019s power plant rule. The Clean Power Plan 2.0 makes it legally impossible to continue operating coal-fired power plants, which contribute about\u00a020%<\/a>\u00a0of electricity generation, and represent about 25% of the reliable capacity on the U.S. electric grid. The rule superficially offers three solutions \u2014 coal plant owners can use \u201cgreen\u201d hydrogen (hydrogen electrolyzed by renewables), capture nearly all carbon dioxide emissions, or shut down\u2014but only the last option is truly viable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given previous regulatory\u00a0gamesmanship<\/a>\u00a0at the EPA, many see the Clean Power Plan 2.0 as a cynical play to scare owners of coal plants to close, whether or not the rule survives court challenge. The\u00a0unanimous opinion<\/a>\u00a0of the four members of the nation\u2019s independent agency in charge of grid reliability (the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) is that coal-fired power plants are essential for grid reliability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rule also applies to existing natural gas plants, despite their lower carbon footprint than coal plants, and despite\u00a0resistance<\/a>\u00a0from the EPA that the White House plan over-reached into the existing natural gas sector. Perhaps the agency knows better than the White House that \u2014 despite billions in subsidies for renewables \u2014 natural gas-fired generation is still growing in Texas and is holding strong in green-tinted California, above\u00a040%<\/a>\u00a0of the electricity mix and even hitting\u00a060% of all generation<\/a>\u00a0during last summer\u2019s heat wave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is because intermittent renewables like wind and solar need a more reliable source like gas to satisfy demand when they cannot, which is most of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding cost, the EPA\u2019s denial of reality hits new heights. The agency estimates that the EV mandate could, in fact, reduce electricity prices in some areas. This is implausible because EVs represent a great new demand on the power grid, and we know they cause utilities to invest heavily in local distribution systems, especially when multiple homes plug EVs into the same radial power line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u00a0Princeton study<\/a>\u00a0analyzing a \u201cnet zero by 2050\u201d scenario found that of the staggering $2.5 trillion in spending needed in the 2020s in a high electrification case, over $1.4 trillion would be needed to support the expansion of electricity generation, transmission, and distribution networks and on EVs and charging stations. California alone may spend\u00a0$50 billion<\/a>\u00a0by 2035 to accommodate new electrification of products such as EVs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EPA denies that these costs exist. Once again, agency officials selectively assume that transmission and distribution costs won\u2019t change from the no-policy baseline, a ridiculous assumption that should get the rule thrown out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to EPA regulations, buyer beware. The price tags in its regulatory impact analyses are unconnected to reality, and even the most predictable grid reliability problems have been swept under the rug.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is no way to sell a transition to the American people. The EPA should go back to the drawing board and return with a set of honest assessments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Travis Fisher is a Senior Research Fellow in Energy and Environment at\u00a0The Heritage Foundation<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article originally appeared at\u00a0Real Clear Energy<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S. power grid is already straining under excess regulations, with\u00a0blackouts possible, but now the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed two more rules that promise to cause even more major problems.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":270391,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818279,691818076,691821464,691818558,691818154,691818728],"class_list":{"0":"post-270382","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-blackouts","9":"tag-co2","10":"tag-environmental-protection-agency-epa","11":"tag-evs","12":"tag-net-zero","13":"tag-wind-and-solar","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0Blackout-888.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18l0","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":270885,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270885","url_meta":{"origin":270382,"position":0},"title":"Right, Epoch Times, the EPA\u2019s New Rules Will Compromise the Electric Power Grid","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article in the\u00a0Epoch Times, \u201cEPA\u2019s Power Grid Assumptions Are Disconnected From Reality,\u201d identifies problems with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency\u2019s (EPA) mass-electrification plans that will increasingly compromise the U.S. power grid. These concerns are valid. The evidence suggests that the EPA\u2019s and other agencies\u2019 efforts to expand the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Electric Power Grid\"","block_context":{"text":"Electric Power Grid","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=electric-power-grid"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0shutterstock_495170521.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0shutterstock_495170521.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0shutterstock_495170521.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0shutterstock_495170521.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0shutterstock_495170521.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":385947,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=385947","url_meta":{"origin":270382,"position":1},"title":"Top EPA Official Breaks Down Why Agency Needs To Get Back To Basics After Biden Years","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Deputy Administrator David Fotouhi said his agency needs to return to its original mission to power the \u201cGreat American Comeback\u201d in a first sit-down interview with the Daily Caller News Foundation.","rel":"","context":"In \"Biden Administration\"","block_context":{"text":"Biden Administration","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=biden-administration"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/00Screenshot-2025-06-30-133536.png?fit=1200%2C514&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/00Screenshot-2025-06-30-133536.png?fit=1200%2C514&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/00Screenshot-2025-06-30-133536.png?fit=1200%2C514&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/00Screenshot-2025-06-30-133536.png?fit=1200%2C514&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/00Screenshot-2025-06-30-133536.png?fit=1200%2C514&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":333545,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=333545","url_meta":{"origin":270382,"position":2},"title":"Biden EPA Rules Will Cause Blackouts for Millions of Americans, Study Warns","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"President Joe Biden\u2019s aggressive climate regulations targeting fossil-fuel-fired power plants will create widespread electric grid instability and lead to mass blackouts impacting millions of Americans,\u00a0according to a recent study\u00a0commissioned by North Dakota\u2019s state government.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate regulations\"","block_context":{"text":"climate regulations","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-regulations"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/02003-blackout-001_wide-a344896ac58f1dfa2a46e628b1bde4d075aed9e1.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/02003-blackout-001_wide-a344896ac58f1dfa2a46e628b1bde4d075aed9e1.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/02003-blackout-001_wide-a344896ac58f1dfa2a46e628b1bde4d075aed9e1.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/02003-blackout-001_wide-a344896ac58f1dfa2a46e628b1bde4d075aed9e1.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/02003-blackout-001_wide-a344896ac58f1dfa2a46e628b1bde4d075aed9e1.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":383346,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=383346","url_meta":{"origin":270382,"position":3},"title":"Making the Power Grid Great Again","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Yesterday, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the\u00a0proposed repeal\u00a0of the Biden-era\u2019s Clean Power Plan 2.0, which ruled that coal-fired and many new natural gas power plants must capture and store over 90% of their carbon emissions by the 2030s\u2014or shut down by 2040. 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