{"id":270153,"date":"2023-07-29T14:34:04","date_gmt":"2023-07-29T12:34:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270153"},"modified":"2023-07-29T14:34:07","modified_gmt":"2023-07-29T12:34:07","slug":"no-cnn-gulf-stream-is-not-collapsing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270153","title":{"rendered":"No CNN, Gulf Stream is Not\u00a0Collapsing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Red colours indicate warm, shallow currents and blue colours indicate cold, deep return flows. Modified from Church, 2007, A change in circulation? Science, 317(5840), 908\u2013909. doi:10.1126\/science.1147796<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Leave it to CNN to jump the shark with scary claims Excerpts in italics with my bolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A crucial system of ocean currents is heading for a collapse that \u2018would affect every person on the planet\u2019<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new study published Tuesday in the journal Nature, found that the\u00a0Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current \u2013 of which the Gulf Stream is a part \u2013 could collapse<\/strong>\u00a0around the middle of the century, or even\u00a0as early as 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientists uninvolved with this study told CNN the\u00a0exact tipping point<\/strong>\u00a0for the critical system\u00a0is uncertain,<\/strong>\u00a0and that measurements of the\u00a0currents have so far showed little trend or change.<\/strong>\u00a0But they agreed these results are alarming and provide new evidence that the tipping point could occur sooner than previously thought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yike!\u00a0 Shades of Day After Tomorrow<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientists Admonish Against Going Over the Top<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Fortunately knowledgable experts in the area have weighed with context and perspective at Science Media Centre\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expert reaction to paper warning of a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course some commented as cheerleaders, but many cautioned against exaggeration and speculation. The\u00a0RAPID programme<\/strong>\u00a0(see diagram at top) measures daily flows of water at several depths between the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans, and its\u00a0scientific coordinator, Prof Meric Srokosz,<\/strong>\u00a0National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton,\u00a0said:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

While the possible collapse of the AMOC with significant climatic impacts is a concern, providing a\u00a0warning of its collapse is problematic as a long set of observations is required<\/strong>. In\u00a0this paper<\/strong>\u00a0the warning depends on\u00a0using proxy AMOC data<\/strong>\u00a0(here based on sea surface temperature,\u00a0SST<\/strong>) as\u00a0direct continuous AMOC measurements are only available since 2004.<\/strong>\u00a0The warning comes from applying statistical techniques to a long time series (over a century) of proxy AMOC data, but the\u00a0warning is only as good as the proxy data<\/strong>\u00a0are in representing the true AMOC. So, this warning needs to be treated with caution as there is\u00a0no consensus as to which proxies can accurately capture the behaviour of the AMOC over the long term.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Prof\u00a0Penny Holliday,<\/strong>\u00a0Head of Marine Physics and Ocean Circulation at the National Oceanography Centre, and\u00a0Principal Investigator for OSNAP,<\/strong>\u00a0an international programme researching AMOC processes, variability and impacts,\u00a0said<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cConfidence in the validity of the conclusions are undermined by our knowledge that\u00a0sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is not a clear indicator of the state of the AMOC<\/strong>, and that there is\u00a0no evidence that the AMOC has dramatically weakened in the past 50-75 years<\/strong>. A collapse of the AMOC would profoundly impact every person on Earth but\u00a0this study overstates the certainly<\/strong>\u00a0in the likelihood of it taking place within the next few years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Does the press release accurately reflect the science?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOn the whole it does \u2013 the\u00a0title of the paper is more sensational than the actual statements<\/strong>\u00a0within it, and the press release does make that clear. However there are\u00a0two statements that are not accurate as<\/strong>\u00a0follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018The strength of the AMOC has only been monitored continuously since 2004 and these observations have shown AMOC to be weakening\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is stated in the paper but it is not correct information. The\u00a0observations since 2004 show that the AMOC goes through fluctuations of being in a stronger or weaker state that last for about 10 years<\/strong>. The observations since 2004 show the\u00a0subtropical AMOC<\/strong>\u00a0getting\u00a0slower from 2004 to 2012, but gradually becoming stronger since then<\/strong>. The only data from AMOC observations shown in the paper are from\u00a05 sparse ship surveys<\/strong>\u00a0and\u00a0are used out of context<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 the authors use them to argue for a severe decline in the AMOC<\/strong>, but that\u00a0interpretation has long been discredited<\/strong>\u00a0in the scientific literature (including in the reference they cite for it).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018The authors found early warning signals of a critical transition of the AMOC system and suggest that it could shut down or\u00a0collapse as early as 2025 and no later than 2095.\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is not quite as the paper states. In the paper the time period of potential collapse\u00a0depends on<\/strong>\u00a0choices they have made in\u00a0how they construct the time series of sea surface temperature<\/strong>\u00a0which they use as evidence for change. They present three versions of the temperature records, and the three resulting model predictions suggests a collapse is \u2018likely\u2019 at any time from 2024 to 2180. The 2025-2095 is the period of time their statistical model predicts that a full or partial collapse is most likely.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\n

How does this work fit with the existing evidence?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe conclusions are\u00a0different to<\/strong>\u00a0the consensus derived from climate projections as described by the\u00a0IPCC AR6 assessment<\/strong>. The averaged AMOC projections from\u00a0climate models<\/strong>\u00a0under all the IPCC emissions\u00a0scenarios all show an AMOC decline, but not a collapse (a \u201chigh confidence\u201d conclusion)<\/strong>. Some individual climate model runs do show a future collapse in the AMOC, so the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are there any important limitations to be aware of?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThere are some\u00a0questionable assertions and decisions<\/strong>\u00a0in the methods as follows. The authors state confidently that the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre can be used as a proxy for the strength of the AMOC. The\u00a0validity of an SST proxy for AMOC strength is a matter of ongoing scientific debate<\/strong>\u00a0however,\u00a0because it is based on model behaviour and is not proven using real-world data.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is solid evidence that there is no such clear relationship,
especially on timescales of less than 30 years.<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI believe the authors have\u00a0overstated the pattern of subpolar North Atlantic SST change by subtracting two (and three) times the global mean surface temperature trend.<\/strong>\u00a0This is not the usual approach for highlighting North Atlantic regional temperature trend (instead it is more usual to subtract just 1 x the global trend). The choice means that some of the SST data they use in the statistical model has\u00a0exaggerated decline since the 1970s when the global SST began to sharply rise<\/strong>. In the version of the statistical model for which the global mean SST trend is removed, the predicted likely time of a partial or complete collapse becomes later and over a wider window of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs mentioned above, the\u00a0actual observations of AMOC since 2004 have long-since discredited the evidence that the authors are using<\/strong>\u00a0to validate their modified SST temperature record. The 5 data points they show in the paper were collected several years apart by\u00a0ship surveys<\/strong>, and it is well known and well established that they give a highly misleading impression<\/strong>\u00a0of AMOC decline. All the observational evidence we have shows no evidence of dramatic decline in the AMOC over the past 50-75 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How uncertain are the uncertainties?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe authors say that the\u00a0model\u2019s 95% confidence interval is 2025-2095<\/strong>. This is a measure of statistical uncertainty and they state in the discussion that they cannot rule out slowing rather than a collapse, as well as listing other reservations and caveats. Because of the limitations of their use of modified SST as a proxy for AMOC, the uncertainty in the stated message in the title and abstract is high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What are the implications in the real world?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe\u00a0potential for the AMOC system<\/strong>\u00a0of\u00a0currents to collapse<\/strong>\u00a0under global warming is\u00a0a high impact, low likelihood scenario<\/strong>, and policymakers and planners do need to be aware of it. NOC and international partners are\u00a0investing in ongoing observations of the AMOC<\/strong>\u00a0in order to determine how closely changes in AMOC contribute to changes in SST and consequential climate and social and economic impacts on people. The strength of the out-of-sight ocean currents of the AMOC has surprisingly direct impacts on food, water and energy security, infrastructure risk, biodiversity, and human health. The paper demonstrates that decades of observations are needed to be able to detect a major tipping point in the AMOC, and the authors call for continued measurements of these great Atlantic ocean currents for long enough to do so.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Prof. Dr. Jochem Marotzke,<\/strong>\u00a0Director of the Department Ocean in the Earth System,\u00a0Max-Planck-Institute<\/strong>\u00a0for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe work provides\u00a0no reason to change the assessment of the 6th IPCC Assessment Report: \u2018There is medium confidence that there will be no abrupt collapse before 2100\u2032.<\/strong>\u00a0The\u00a0statement<\/strong>\u00a0so confidently made in this paper\u00a0that collapse will occur in the 21st century has feet of clay.<\/strong>\u00a0The maths are solid, but the starting point is highly dubious: the essential equation \u2013 marked with (1) in the paper \u2013 relies on the simplified models representing bifurcation \u2013 i.e. AMOC collapse \u2013 also being correct. But the more comprehensive models do not show this very bifurcation. In this respect,\u00a0the paper does not live up to its self-imposed claim: \u2018The strategy is to infer the evolution of the AMOC solely on observed changes<\/strong>\u00a0in mean, variance and autocorrelation.\u2019<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The interpretation relies to an enormous extent on the authors\u2019 theoretical
understanding being correct, and there are huge doubts about that.<\/mark><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIt must be added that there is considerable\u00a0doubt<\/strong>\u00a0as to whether surface temperature measurements are a valid proxy for the AMOC. Again, the paper addresses these uncertainties inadequately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen reporting about this study, it is important to include the key aspects in which\u00a0this paper fails to include the scientific uncertainties.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Prof Niklas Boers, Professor of Earth System Modelling at the Technical University of Munich, said:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cI do not agree with the outcome of this study.<\/strong>\u00a0While the\u00a0qualitative statement that the AMOC has been losing stability<\/strong>\u00a0in the course of the last century is true and supported by the data,\u00a0uncertainties are too high to reliably estimate a time of tipping.<\/strong>\u00a0In particular, the uncertainties in the heavily\u00a0oversimplified model assumptions<\/strong>\u00a0by the authors are too high. Moreover, the\u00a0uncertainties in the underlying datasets<\/strong>\u00a0are huge and would make the extrapolation carried out by the authors\u00a0far too uncertain to actually report a year or even a decade for the AMOC tipping.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Background Post\u00a02019 AMOC Update: Oceans Moderate Climate Threat<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Fig. 1. Schematic of the major warm (red to yellow) and cold (blue to purple) water pathways in the NASPG (North Atlantic subpolar gyre ) credit: H. Furey, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution): Denmark Strait (DS), Faroe Bank Channel (FBC), East and West Greenland Currents (EGC and WGC, respectively), NAC, DSO, and ISO.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The averaged AMOC projections from\u00a0climate models\u00a0under all the IPCC emissions\u00a0scenarios all show an AMOC decline, but not a collapse (a \u201chigh confidence\u201d conclusion). Some individual climate model runs do show a future collapse in the AMOC, so the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":270171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821384,691818153,691819043,691821383,691820246],"class_list":{"0":"post-270153","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-cnn","11":"tag-gulf-stream","12":"tag-ipcc-ar6","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0the-day-after-tomorrow.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18hj","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":282169,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282169","url_meta":{"origin":270153,"position":0},"title":"AMOC: A Non-Tipping point","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Watts Up With That? Gabriel Oxenstierna, Ph.D The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of Earth\u2019s major ocean circulation systems\u2014it redistributes heat on our planet and is a key driver of climate variability. There is a northward transport of heat throughout the Atlantic, comprising one quarter of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":270980,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270980","url_meta":{"origin":270153,"position":1},"title":"The Guardian\u2019s (ocean) circulation problem","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/08\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Is there no loyalty among climate extremists? 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(AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridian-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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