{"id":269977,"date":"2023-07-28T17:50:12","date_gmt":"2023-07-28T15:50:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269977"},"modified":"2023-07-28T17:50:15","modified_gmt":"2023-07-28T15:50:15","slug":"antarctic-sea-ice-varies-its-complicated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269977","title":{"rendered":"Antarctic Sea Ice Varies, It\u2019s\u00a0Complicated"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Antarctic sea ice concentration on June 27, 2023, with white representing solid ice and dark blue representing open ocean. The median ice edge for 1981\u20132010 is drawn in orange. (Credit: Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

One of the more measured current reports of Antarctic sea ice is at Discover\u00a0Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches a \u201cRecord-Smashing Low\u201d<\/strong><\/a>.\u00a0 Excerpts in italics with my bolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sea ice extent is nearly a million square miles
below the long-term average for late June.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some scientists believe that what we\u2019ve\u00a0seen since 2022 may be<\/strong>\u00a0signaling a significant and potentially\u00a0long-lasting change.<\/strong>\u00a0As\u00a0Ted Maksym<\/strong>, a climate scientist and\u00a0polar oceanographer at the Woods Hole<\/strong>\u00a0Oceanographic Institution, put it in a recent story in Wired:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNow there\u2019s this question about: Have we got into\u00a0a regime shift? A few of us<\/strong>\u00a0are sort of\u00a0speculating<\/strong>\u00a0that that may be true, where the variability in Antarctic sea ice has changed and we\u00a0might see these low sea ice extents for some time.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Maksym also says he and his colleagues are \u201cwatching<\/strong>\u00a0with bated breath\u201d\u00a0to see if things will return to normal \u2014 and they could. Scientists just don\u2019t know.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s because the\u00a0Antarctic is a very different environment than the Arctic<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 in a way that\u00a0complicates drawing firm conclusions<\/strong>. The latter consists of an ocean surrounded by land, whereas the former is a giant landmass surrounded by oceans.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sea ice around Antarctica is affected by a host of complex factors,
including shifts in ocean currents and sea and air temperatures.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given how remote, forbidding and large Antarctica is,\u00a0observations<\/strong>\u00a0of these factors have been relatively\u00a0sparse<\/strong>. Moreover, the record of\u00a0satellite observations of sea ice dates only to 1979,<\/strong>\u00a0making it difficult to separate out a human-caused signal from natural variability. And the sparseness of data, and the complexity of myriad factors, have made modeling of Antarctic sea ice very challenging.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom line: Scientists haven\u2019t seen anything like what\u2019s been happening to Antarctic sea ice in\u00a0the past two years<\/strong>. But it will\u00a0take time to know whether a dramatic shift truly has occurred,<\/strong>\u00a0and more research to tease out the role of anthropogenic climate change in what\u2019s happening.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Background Annual Cycle of Antarctic Sea Ice<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Firstly, the annual minimum average is ~2.5 M km2 vs. an average maximum of ~17.5 M km2.\u00a0 So the sea ice extent each year nearly disappears.\u00a0 Secondly, since 2010, some years were well above the 1981-2010 average, and obviously there were likely many prior years below average.\u00a0 Which suggests\u00a0this may be a return to the mean, or not,<\/strong>\u00a0as the experts say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Previously, Antarctic Sea Ice Grew Steadily<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Robot Sub Finds Surprisingly Thick Antarctic Sea Ice Nov. 24, 2014<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Antarctica\u2019s ice paradox<\/strong>\u00a0has yet another puzzling layer.\u00a0Not only is the amount of sea ice increasing each year,<\/strong>\u00a0but an underwater robot now shows the ice is\u00a0also much thicker<\/strong>\u00a0than was previously thought, a new study reports.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The discovery adds to the ongoing mystery of Antarctica\u2019s expanding sea ice.\u00a0According to climate models, the region\u2019s sea ice should be shrinking each year because of global warming<\/strong>.\u00a0Instead<\/strong>, satellite observations show the ice is expanding, and the continent\u2019s\u00a0sea ice has set new records for the past three winters.<\/strong>\u00a0At the same time, Antarctica\u2019s ice sheet (the glacial ice on land) is melting and retreating.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Measuring sea ice thickness is a crucial step<\/strong>\u00a0in understanding what\u2019s driving the growth of sea ice, said study co-author\u00a0Ted Maksym<\/strong>, an oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts. Climate scientists need to know if the sea ice expansion also includes underwater thickening.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf we don\u2019t know how much ice is there is, we can\u2019t validate the models we use to understand the global climate,\u201d Maksym told Live Science.\u00a0\u201cIt looks like there are significant areas of thick ice that are probably not accounted for.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Antarctic sunlight illuminates the surface of the sea ice, intensifying the effect of the fracture lines, Oct. 2003. (NSIDC, University of Colorado)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theory:  Climate Change Increases Antarctic Sea Ice Extent<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

From AP Oct. 10, 2012\u00a0Increase in Antarctic ice may be sign of climate change.<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0 Excerpts in italics with my bolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the Arctic is open ocean encircled by land,\u00a0the Antarctic<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 about 1.5 times the size of the U.S. \u2014\u00a0is land circled by ocean, leaving more room for sea ice to spread.<\/strong>\u00a0That geography makes a dramatic difference in the two polar climates.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Arctic ice responds more directly to warmth.\u00a0In the Antarctic, the main driver is wind,<\/strong>\u00a0Maksym and other scientists say. Changes in the strength and motion of winds are\u00a0now pushing the ice farther north, extending its reach.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those changes in wind are\u00a0tied in a complicated way to climate change from greenhouse gases,<\/strong>\u00a0Maksym and Scambos say. Climate change has created essentially a wall of wind that keeps cool weather bottled up in Antarctica, NASA\u2019s Abdalati says.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the wind works\u00a0in combination with the ozone hole,<\/strong>\u00a0the huge gap in Earth\u2019s protective ozone layer that usually appears over the South Pole. It\u2019s bigger than North America.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s\u00a0caused by man-made pollutants chlorine and bromine,<\/strong>\u00a0which are different from the fossil fuel emissions that cause global warming. The hole makes Antarctica even cooler this time of year because the\u00a0ozone layer usually absorbs solar radiation, working like a blanket to keep the Earth warm.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that cooling effect makes the winds near the ground stronger and steadier,
pushing the ice outward, Scambos says.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

University of Colorado researcher Katherine Leonard, who is on board the ship with Maksym, says in an email that the Antarctic sea ice is\u00a0also getting snowier because climate change has allowed the air to carry more moisture.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Does Sea Ice Growth or Decline Negate or Confirm Climate Change?  No.<\/strong><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

From LA Times August 29, 2014 Does Antarctic sea ice growth negate climate change? Scientists say no. <\/strong><\/a> Excerpts in italics with my bolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year,\u00a0Antarctic sea ice has expanded its frigid reach with unprecedented speed,<\/strong>\u00a0setting records in June and July. By the time spring punctures the long Antarctic night, 2014 stands a decent chance of topping 2012 and 2013, which each broke records of maximum total ice extent.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, since scientists started making\u00a0satellite observations<\/strong>\u00a0in the late 1970s, they have watched\u00a0winter sea ice around Antarctica swell slowly but indisputably, despite predictions that it should shrink.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This poses a puzzle that climate scientists struggle to explain:
How can sea ice grow in a warming world?<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate skeptics have pounced on this apparent discrepancy, citing it as proof that climate change isn\u2019t real, or at least that scientists don\u2019t completely understand it. But\u00a0those who study Antarctic sea ice say their curious observations shouldn\u2019t shake anyone\u2019s confidence<\/strong>. Dramatic changes in temperature, sea level and extreme weather around the world are\u00a0proof enough the planet is warming,<\/strong>\u00a0they say; the only question is how these changes affect the Antarctic as they ripple through the climate system.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cClimate is a complicated thing,\u201d said Ted Maksym,<\/strong>\u00a0an oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in Massachusetts.\u00a0\u201cUnderstanding how these kinds of changes play out in different regions is tricky business.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The westerly winds blow fierce and constant around Antarctica,<\/strong>\u00a0isolating the continent in a kind of permanent polar vortex. Scientists think they exert the most direct control over the state of Antarctic sea ice.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ice requires cold temperatures to form, and\u00a0winds help it grow<\/strong>\u00a0by blowing it around the polar ocean. When the ice moves, new water is exposed to the chilly air, creating an opportunity to make more ice.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it\u2019s\u00a0not<\/strong>\u00a0quite\u00a0as simple as more wind, more ice.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt makes no sense to talk about a circumpolar average,\u201d Stammerjohn said. \u201cThere\u2019s so much regional variability.\u201d<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\u00a0Ross Sea,<\/strong>\u00a0which faces New Zealand, has seen a dramatic increase in peak ice extent and 80 more days of ice cover since 1979, when satellites began tracking changes. But along the Antarctic Peninsula, which stretches toward the tip of South America, the ice-covered season in the\u00a0Bellingshausen Sea<\/strong>\u00a0is three months shorter than it was 35 years ago.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientists say sea ice and continental ice are\u00a0probably responding to the same forces \u2014 namely, changes in ocean circulation and winds.<\/strong>\u00a0However, they also influence each other.\u00a0Sea ice helps buffer<\/strong>\u00a0ice shelves, the floating tongues of glacial ice that dam the ice sheets and keep them from spilling irreversibly into the sea. It\u00a0also keeps warm ocean waters trapped<\/strong>\u00a0beneath a frozen lid, insulating the ice sheet from their destructive heat.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the long run, however, scientists expect Antarctic sea ice to decline everywhere.
That it hasn\u2019t done so yet suggests there\u2019s still much to learn about the region.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Antarctic Sea Ice Grows to All-Time Record High: NSIDC October 09, 2014<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sea ice around Antarctica is affected by a host of complex factors,
\nincluding shifts in ocean currents and sea and air temperatures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":269997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819072,691820676,691821412],"class_list":{"0":"post-269977","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-antarctic-sea-ice","9":"tag-climate-impacts","10":"tag-oceans-make-climate","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-869.png?fit=2048%2C1355&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-18et","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":194270,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=194270","url_meta":{"origin":269977,"position":0},"title":"Solar energy explains fast yearly retreat of Antarctica\u2019s sea ice","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/04\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Peer-Reviewed Publication UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON IMAGE:\u00a0A RESEARCH VESSEL IN ANTARCTICA ON JUNE 3, 2017, THE FIRST DAY RESEARCHERS SAW THE SUN RISE ABOVE THE HORIZON AFTER WEEKS OF POLAR DARKNESS. 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5TH MARCH 2017.\u00a0view\u00a0more\u00a0CREDIT: FRAZER CHRISTIE Despite the rapid melting of ice in many parts\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0Screenshot-2022-05-14-193736.png?fit=1052%2C526&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0Screenshot-2022-05-14-193736.png?fit=1052%2C526&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0Screenshot-2022-05-14-193736.png?fit=1052%2C526&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0Screenshot-2022-05-14-193736.png?fit=1052%2C526&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, 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