{"id":269628,"date":"2023-07-26T22:30:15","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T20:30:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269628"},"modified":"2023-07-26T22:30:25","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T20:30:25","slug":"antarctica-heat-hype","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269628","title":{"rendered":"Antarctica Heat Hype"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jennifer Marohasy throws cold water on heat hype in her Spectator Australia article\u00a0Warming in Antarctica? Only using \u2018creative\u2019 statistics<\/strong>.<\/a>\u00a0 Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Much has been written in the\u00a0tabloids<\/strong>, and repeated by the fashionable, about it being very hot through June \u2013 even in Antarctica. Really, I wondered.\u00a0Is Antarctica melting?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has measured air temperatures at the\u00a0Mawson weather station in Antarctica since early 1954<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 this is one of the\u00a0longest continuous surface temperature records<\/strong>\u00a0for that part of the world. The Russians did not establish the more famous and isolated Vostok weather station until 1957. The satellite temperature record doesn\u2019t begin until 1979.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Automatic weather station (AWS) near Mawson. Photo: John Burgess<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Bureau makes very\u00a0few adjustments<\/strong>\u00a0to the\u00a0temperatures<\/strong>\u00a0as measured at Mawson that oscillate\u00a0within a band of some few degrees<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 mostly below freezing. These same temperatures show\u00a0no<\/strong>\u00a0statistically significant\u00a0long-term warming trend,<\/strong>\u00a0at least not since 1954. There are longer proxy temperature series, based on\u00a0ice core records<\/strong>, and they\u00a0show an overall cooling trend,<\/strong>\u00a0considering the last 1,900 years. Here, again, I am referring to data from published studies, for example, the temperatures of East and West Antarctica were reconstructed by a team led by Barbara Stenni including scientists from the Australian Antarctic Division, British Antarctic Survey, and Russian Antarctic Research Institute. It is\u00a0only remodelled proxy series that show warming over this same period.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last month (June 2023), Antarctica was reported as \u2018hot\u2019 in various publications including Vox.com.\u00a0It\u2019s even hot in Antarctica, where it\u2019s winter.<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0 Yet the average maximum temperature for\u00a0Mawson was minus 12.6 degrees Celsius,<\/strong>\u00a0which is not quite as cold as the long-term June average for all years since 1954 which is minus 13.5 C. When the June maximum temperatures for Mawson are ranked highest to lowest, June 2023 comes in as the 29th hottest, and 42nd coldest \u2013 suggesting\u00a0temperatures in Antarctica were not particularly newsworthy and rather cold.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet the tabloids, and fashionable, are\u00a0claiming June 2023 as hot \u2013 even in Antarctica. It is all nonsense.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Some of these claims have their origin in the University of Maine\u2019s\u00a0Climate Reanalyzer, a tool that uses satellite data and computer simulations.<\/strong>\u00a0So, they represent\u00a0a remodelled average.<\/strong>\u00a0Indeed, there is not a single place where anyone, can measure the average temperature of the Earth \u2013 or Antarctica. Rather, when it is announced that it is the hottest it has ever been, reference is made to\u00a0a statistic.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This average temperature is necessarily a number
that has been derived from other numbers.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There will perhaps have been some\u00a0measuring<\/strong>\u00a0done here and there, and then some\u00a0adjusting<\/strong>, and then some\u00a0adding<\/strong>\u00a0up and some\u00a0adjusting<\/strong>\u00a0again. This is how it is with the calculation of regional and global average temperatures \u2013 whether from satellites, tree rings, ice cores, or thermometers. To be sure, every year\u00a0we are told it is getting hotter<\/strong>, and back in the late 1980s, this was achieved\u00a0for the globally averaged thermometer record by dropping out some of the colder weather stations<\/strong>. This had the effect of increasing the overall average global temperature, at a time when temperatures at many individual sites were dipping somewhat.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Those who have followed the\u00a0politics of measuring temperatures<\/strong>\u00a0may also remember the infamous line in the\u00a0Climategate emails,<\/strong>\u00a0whereby the globally averaged temperatures based on\u00a0tree rings<\/strong>, which also\u00a0show a decline after 1980, are \u2018corrected\u2019<\/strong>\u00a0by substituting the globally averaged temperature from thermometer records \u2013 never mind that the dip in that\u00a0record had already been \u2018corrected\u2019 by removing data from a great many high latitude Canadian and Russian weather stations.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Drawing from this sordid history of calculating global and regional temperatures, I can think of a large number of ways that the University of Maine\u2019s Climate Reanalyzer could possibly generate a higher-than-average temperature for Antarctica and especially the Earth. Indeed,\u00a0the larger the geographic area covered, the more opportunity for creative accounting<\/strong>, for which corporates using similar techniques would go to jail, while climate scientists are more usually promoted.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The solution is to perhaps\u00a0give up on believing the nonsense news headlines<\/strong>, especially\u00a0when<\/strong>\u00a0there is\u00a0no reference to a specific weather station,<\/strong>\u00a0like Mawson.\u00a0Or<\/strong>\u00a0do away with a random selection of weather stations and focus instead on\u00a0a simple index based on a good sample of well-sited weather stations<\/strong>\u00a0with long histories, like Mawson.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such a concept could be based on the Dow Jones Averages or the S&P 500. No one ever tries establishing an impossible-to-define \u2018average stock price\u2019 \u2014 including many stocks of doubtful provenance \u2014 and nobody cares. Rather the solution is to have a pre-selected index of certain representative stocks, that are then followed over a long-time span. So\u00a0why not have an index of agreed weather stations?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only problem is, the\u00a0tabloids and the fashionable, might then have nothing to talk about<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 should they limit reporting to the same weather stations and with temperatures reliably measured, which will require some modification to current methods and of course, no subsequent adjusting.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There may be\u00a0no catastrophe to report<\/strong>\u00a0at least not when it comes to weather as a measure of climate, for which the lack of reliable measures, and the great number of potentially creative solutions, are currently being exploited over and over to justify rather large expenditures on all manner of things.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Much has been written in the\u00a0tabloids, and repeated by the fashionable, about it being very hot through June \u2013 even in Antarctica. Really, I wondered.\u00a0Is Antarctica melting?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":269648,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818326,691821366,691820960,691821367],"class_list":{"0":"post-269628","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-antarctica","9":"tag-cooling-trend","10":"tag-heat-hype","11":"tag-ice-core-records","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-805.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-188Q","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":344011,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344011","url_meta":{"origin":269628,"position":0},"title":"No, Mainstream Media, Antarctica Isn\u2019t \u2018Burning\u2019 from a Heat Wave","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The photo above shows the headline of SciTechDaily: Earth\u2019s Last Frontier Burns: Record-Breaking Heat Strikes Antarctica in Winter. 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Perhaps discovery is too strong a word. 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Due to incessant media propaganda, alarmists falsely believed only rising CO2 concentrations can cause such extreme warming events, and that heat waves are deadly.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctica\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctica","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctica"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0-Antarctica-12.jpeg?fit=1200%2C786&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0-Antarctica-12.jpeg?fit=1200%2C786&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0-Antarctica-12.jpeg?fit=1200%2C786&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0-Antarctica-12.jpeg?fit=1200%2C786&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0-Antarctica-12.jpeg?fit=1200%2C786&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269628","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=269628"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269628\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":269649,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269628\/revisions\/269649"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/269648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=269628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=269628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=269628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}