{"id":269451,"date":"2023-07-25T20:35:08","date_gmt":"2023-07-25T18:35:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269451"},"modified":"2023-07-25T20:35:11","modified_gmt":"2023-07-25T18:35:11","slug":"the-tonga-underwater-volcano-eruption-may-have-had-a-larger-warming-effect-than-reported","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269451","title":{"rendered":"The Tonga Underwater Volcano Eruption May Have Had a Larger Warming Effect Than Reported"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by Ryan Maue<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Himawari-8 satellite images of the 15 January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u02bbapai.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Editor\u2019s Note:\u00a0This volcanic eruption water vapor estimate<\/a>\u00a0analysis given on Twitter by meteorologist Ryan Maue shows that the recent eruption of an underwater volcano near Tonga may have resulted in a larger warming effect than scientists originally reported.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Initial scientific estimates were 50-million metric tons of water injected into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai submarine volcano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are likely off by a factor of 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New research suggests 150-million metric tons or almost 40 Trillion gallons of water vapor was injected into the upper-atmosphere. A lot of it is still up there floating around.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The 40 Trillion gallons of water vapor in the stratosphere represents an unprecedented amount injected in the stratosphere. Volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo blast SO2 into the stratosphere creating a cooling climate shroud for 1-2 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, Hunga Tonga had only 2% of the SO2 as Pinatubo but a gargantuan amount of water vapor, which is well known to WARM the Earth. The question is\u00a0how much<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The global warming caused by Hunga-Tonga is significant. The eruption of Hunga-Tonga increased the water vapor mass in the stratosphere by 13%, and it will remain there for many years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation by the Hunga eruption ranks it among\u00a0the most remarkable climatic events\u00a0in the modern observation era.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Earlier in March 2023, scientists reported likelihood of warming from the volcanic injection of water vapor into the stratosphere pushing Earth closer to 1.5\u00b0C Paris Agreement threshold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based upon the last few months, it seems the effect of [the volcano] on global temperatures may have been greatly underestimated<\/a>. It\u2019s straightforward how to run a radiative transfer model to determine the impacts of adding 150M metric tons of water to the stratosphere. But, detailed climate model simulations are needed to disentangle the atmospheric circulation changes that lead to non-linear feedbacks. The climate is \u201cabnormal\u201d right now, aside from the developing El Ni\u00f1o and background climate change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Initial scientific estimates were 50-million metric tons of water injected into the stratosphere by Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai submarine volcano.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":269467,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691821327,691821352,691819280,691818555,691820483],"class_list":{"0":"post-269451","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-hunga-tonga-hunga-haapai","10":"tag-pinatubo","11":"tag-so2","12":"tag-submarine-volcano","13":"tag-volcanic-eruptions","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0hunga-tonga-ha-apai-volcano-eruption-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-185Z","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":300184,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300184","url_meta":{"origin":269451,"position":0},"title":"Hunga Tonga-Hunga eruption sent enough water vapor into the stratosphere to cause a rapid change in chemistry","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai volcano on January 15, 2022, produced the largest underwater explosion ever recorded by modern scientific instruments, blasting an enormous amount of water and volcanic gases higher than any other eruption in the satellite era.","rel":"","context":"In \"Earth\u2019s stratosphere\"","block_context":{"text":"Earth\u2019s stratosphere","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=earths-stratosphere"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":269225,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269225","url_meta":{"origin":269451,"position":1},"title":"Ryan Maue on Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai Submarine Volcano.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s straightforward how to run a radiative transfer model to determine the impacts of adding 150M metric tons of water to the stratosphere. But, detailed climate model simulations are needed to disentangle the atmospheric circulation changes that lead to non-linear feedbacks. The climate is \u201cabnormal\u201d right now, aside from the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":365515,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365515","url_meta":{"origin":269451,"position":2},"title":"EXCLUSIVE: Sensational Findings Point to Hunga Tonga Eruption as Prime Suspect Behind Recent Temperature Spike","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In January 2022, a massive underwater volcano called Hunga Tonga suddenly erupted and shot so much water into the upper atmosphere that levels in the stratosphere rose suddenly by at least 10%. It was a genuine one in 100, even 200-year event and was reasonably expected to produce temporary weather\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Screenshot-2025-02-07-185254.png?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":284307,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284307","url_meta":{"origin":269451,"position":3},"title":"2022 Hunga Tonga underwater volcanic eruption injected 165 million tons of water vapor & acidic gases into stratosphere & affected the ozone layer","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"When the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai volcano\u00a0erupted\u00a0on Jan. 15, it sent a tsunami racing around the world and set off a sonic boom that circled the globe twice. The underwater eruption in the South Pacific Ocean also blasted an enormous plume of water vapor into Earth\u2019s stratosphere \u2013 enough to fill\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"acidic gases\"","block_context":{"text":"acidic gases","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=acidic-gases"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":313414,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=313414","url_meta":{"origin":269451,"position":4},"title":"Hunga Tonga Volcano is \u201cMost Likely\u201d Cause of Recent Warm Temperatures","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The climate events of 2022-24 have been \u201ctruly extraordinary\u201d, notes Dr. Javier Vin\u00f3s writing in Dr. Judith Curry\u2019s\u00a0online blog. The rare convergence of a number of events \u201cthat may not be repeated for hundreds or even thousands of years\u201d represents a \u201cunique learning opportunity\u201d for climatologists.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0121222_cg_-tonga-hunga-volcano_feat.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":253265,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253265","url_meta":{"origin":269451,"position":5},"title":"2022 Tongan volcanic eruption was largest natural explosion in more than a century, new study finds","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The 2022 eruption of a submarine volcano in Tonga was more powerful than the largest U.S. nuclear explosion, according to a new study led by scientists at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science and the Khaled bin Sultan Living Oceans Foundation.","rel":"","context":"In \"2022 eruption\"","block_context":{"text":"2022 eruption","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2022-eruption"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0tonga-volcano.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0tonga-volcano.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0tonga-volcano.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0tonga-volcano.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0tonga-volcano.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=269451"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269451\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":269468,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269451\/revisions\/269468"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/269467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=269451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=269451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=269451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}