{"id":269241,"date":"2023-07-24T19:58:26","date_gmt":"2023-07-24T17:58:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269241"},"modified":"2023-07-24T19:58:36","modified_gmt":"2023-07-24T17:58:36","slug":"2023-hurricane-season-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269241","title":{"rendered":"2023 Hurricane Season\u00a0Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
Figure: Last 50-years+ of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line\/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line\/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":269254,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818233,691821329],"class_list":["post-269241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-691818233","tag-hurricane-season","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/00huracanes-generica-GettyImages-53475357-copy.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-182B","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":259473,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259473","url_meta":{"origin":269241,"position":0},"title":"NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Hurricanes are only neat and exciting when they are happening someplace else to someone else.\u00a0 Up close, they are dangerous even for those well prepared.","rel":"","context":"In \"Hurricanes\"","block_context":{"text":"Hurricanes","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hurricanes"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":444596,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=444596","url_meta":{"origin":269241,"position":1},"title":"Scorecard: How Well Does NOAA\u2019s Hurricane Outlook Actually Perform? 26 Years of Forecasts vs. Reality","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/16\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA\u2019s May Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks perform modestly well at hitting their probabilistic ranges (roughly 65-70% hit rate for named storms\/hurricanes over ~25 years), but they show limitations like under-forecasting in hyperactive seasons, occasional big misses, and skill that is better for broad \"above\/near\/below normal\" direction than precise counts.","rel":"","context":"In \"forecast\"","block_context":{"text":"forecast","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=forecast"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":446161,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161","url_meta":{"origin":269241,"position":2},"title":"GOOD NEWS: NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, 2026, and it does call for a below-normal season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2026 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2026 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2026-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":412307,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412307","url_meta":{"origin":269241,"position":3},"title":"Hurricane Forecast Was Overly Alarmist (Again)\u2026Atlantic Season Ending Near Normal","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted\u00a0that an above average Atlantic hurricane season\u00a0for 2025.","rel":"","context":"In \"catastrophe prophets\"","block_context":{"text":"catastrophe prophets","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=catastrophe-prophets"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":260200,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260200","url_meta":{"origin":269241,"position":4},"title":"2023 Edition: What the media won’t tell you about . . . hurricanes","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Today is the official start to the 2023 hurricane season in the North Atlantic. Over the past few decades the media has increasing celebrated every hurricane as an indicator of climate change \u2014 whether juiced, intensified, linked, fueled \u2014 pick your favorite. Typically lost in the apocalyptic narrative has been\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0rawImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C930&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0rawImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C930&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0rawImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C930&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0rawImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C930&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0rawImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C930&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":407621,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=407621","url_meta":{"origin":269241,"position":5},"title":"Karen\u2013The Storm That Was\u00a0Not!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"They must be getting very desperate now to clock up some more \u201churricanes\u201d before the Atlantic hurricane season peters out for good!","rel":"","context":"In \"Hurricanes\"","block_context":{"text":"Hurricanes","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hurricanes"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-11-101318.png?fit=1200%2C716&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-11-101318.png?fit=1200%2C716&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-11-101318.png?fit=1200%2C716&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-11-101318.png?fit=1200%2C716&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-11-101318.png?fit=1200%2C716&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269241","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=269241"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269241\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":269256,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269241\/revisions\/269256"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/269254"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=269241"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=269241"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=269241"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}