{"id":268728,"date":"2023-07-21T16:25:30","date_gmt":"2023-07-21T14:25:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=268728"},"modified":"2023-07-21T16:25:32","modified_gmt":"2023-07-21T14:25:32","slug":"shell-knew-no-outlier-climate-prediction-exaggerated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=268728","title":{"rendered":"Shell Knew? No (outlier climate prediction exaggerated)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From MasterResource<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Robert Bradley Jr.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cShell, ExxonMobil, and other companies should defeat these frivolous lawsuits against fossil fuels, which are more a complaint against high-energy civilization than the defendants. The plaintiffs should be ordered to pay all court costs, as well as the opportunity cost for the company having to litigate rather than find energy for the masses.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

A DeSmog piece by Matthew Green, \u201cLost Decade: How Shell Downplayed Early Warnings Over Climate Change<\/a>,\u201d reports on a smoking gun that is more like a broken, discarded water pistol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNewly discovered documents from the 1970s and early \u201980s show that Shell knew more about the \u2018greenhouse effect\u2019 than it let on in public,\u201d reads the subtitle. The article continues:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

A confidential October 1989 Shell publication titled \u201cSCENARIOS 1989 \u2013 2010\u201d outlines a high-emissions \u201cglobal mercantilism\u201d scenario in which average global temperatures rise by \u201cconsiderably more\u201d than 1.5 degrees Celsius. The report warned that \u201cmany species of trees, plants, animals and insects would not be able to move and adapt.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecast: 1989\u20132020<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was for 2050; the shorter term forecast (per the study\u2019s title) was for 30 years, ending in 2020. And the results are in, diminishing DeSmog\u2019s narrative and reinforcing the \u201cskeptic\u2019 point about global lukewarming versus \u2018too hot\u2019 climate models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shell\u2019s\u00a0environmental report<\/a>\u00a0began by stating that the \u201cnew\u201d theory introduced \u201cthe possibility that global temperatures could increase because of increasing concentrations of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, particularly, CO2.\u201d Alarming? No. Complete? Hardly. The study did not consider CO2 fertilization and the benefits of warming, anthropogenic or otherwise. It was CO2 alarmism before the world knew of such a thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe conventional and probably conservative wisdom,\u201d Shell\u2019s half-century-old study stated, \u201cis that global temperature will rise between 0.5 and 1.5C in the next 30 years from CO2 concentration increases that have already occurred.\u201d Thus any atmospheric increases for the forecast period (which turned out to be\u00a017 percent<\/a>) would add to the temperature range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assuming the mid-point, the 2010 temperature rise (assumed to be all anthropogenic, not natural) was\u00a0at the bottom of the range<\/a>, 0.5C (0.7F), less than half of the prediction midpoint of 1.0C (1.7F). {Note<\/strong>: The global temperature increase\u00a0since 1880 is estimated at 2F<\/a>.}<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shell\u2019s temperature prediction was significantly overstated, not unlike the temperature prediction pertaining to\u00a0James Hansen\u2019s historic climate testimony in mid-1988<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecast: 1980\u20132050<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was for 2020, the half way point of the second prediction. Going out to year 2050, the Shell study authors (not the company!) went on the wild side. As summarized by DeSmog:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

But its starkest language was reserved for the implications for people. \u201cThe changes would, however, most impact on humans [sic]. In earlier times, man was able to respond with his feet. Today, there is no place to go because people already stand there. Perhaps those in industrial countries could cope with a rise in sea level (the Dutch example) but for poor countries such defences are not possible. The potential refugee problem in GLOBAL MERCANTILISM could be unprecedented. Africans would push into Europe, Chinese into the Soviet Union, Latins into the United States, Indonesians into Australia. Boundaries would count for little \u2013 overwhelmed by the numbers. Conflicts would abound.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Civilisation could prove a fragile thing.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impartial observers will see right through DeSmog\u2019s attempt to pull an \u201cExxonKnew\u201d with Shell. (The Exxon story is itself\u00a0easily countered on multiple grounds<\/a>.) Shell, ExxonMobil, and other companies should defeat these frivolous lawsuits against fossil fuels, which are more a complaint against high-energy civilization than the defendants. The plaintiffs should be ordered to pay all court costs, as well as the opportunity cost for the company having to litigate rather than find energy for the masses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The study did not consider CO2 fertilization and the benefits of warming, anthropogenic or otherwise. It was CO2 alarmism before the world knew of such a thing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":268734,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818153,691821272,691818076,691818296],"class_list":{"0":"post-268728","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-models","9":"tag-climate-prediction","10":"tag-co2","11":"tag-greenhouse-effect","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0562fb485-c523-4d6f-b6a5-6798810a2bc5.webp?fit=1670%2C1238&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-17Uk","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":344501,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344501","url_meta":{"origin":268728,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, Media and Climate Plaintiffs, Exxon Can\u2019t Have Known What Is Still Being Studied and Debated","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Editor\u2019s Note: Scripps News and MSN reported on Puerto Rico\u2019s recent filing of a lawsuit against big oil companies, \u201cclaiming their products caused climate damage \u2026 [and that] Exxon Mobil, BP, Chevron, Shell and other big oil companies knew their products would pollute the island and negatively impact the climate,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Big Oil\"","block_context":{"text":"Big Oil","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=big-oil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-25-100716.png?fit=1200%2C604&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-25-100716.png?fit=1200%2C604&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-25-100716.png?fit=1200%2C604&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-25-100716.png?fit=1200%2C604&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0Screenshot-2024-09-25-100716.png?fit=1200%2C604&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":343830,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=343830","url_meta":{"origin":268728,"position":1},"title":"\u201cExxon Knew\u201d: More Rebuttal (again)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cExxon Knew\u201d is a political-lawyer campaign focusing on certain internal company documents to make a case that the oil major knew that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were a future threat to human betterment. Smoking gun? 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