{"id":267828,"date":"2023-07-17T10:42:48","date_gmt":"2023-07-17T08:42:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267828"},"modified":"2023-07-17T10:42:52","modified_gmt":"2023-07-17T08:42:52","slug":"could-do-better","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267828","title":{"rendered":"Could Do Better"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Climate Scepticism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0MARK HODGSON<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Must try harder next year<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The prevailing\u00a0narrative in the mainstream media<\/a>\u00a0regarding the UK climate is that it is becoming increasingly chaotic, and we must take urgent steps both to mitigate against climate change (as if we in the UK could do anything meaningful in this regard, while greenhouse gas emissions in much of the world are growing) and to adapt against its effects. That being the case, it is interesting to look at the most recent in a series of reports relating to the UK climate, the report in question being\u00a0\u201cState of the UK Climate 2021\u201d<\/a>. This, the eighth in a series of such reports, is probably the most definitive report on this topic, appearing on the Royal Meteorological Society website, and being mostly based, as it says, on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

observations of temperature, precipitation, sunshine and wind speed from the UK land weather station network as managed by the Met Office and a number of key partners and co-operating volunteers.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given its reliance on data supplied by the Met Office, one might be slightly cautious about this claim:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The observations are carefully managed such that they conform to current best-practice observational standards as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reasons for caution are set out by Jit\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0and by Paul Homewood\u00a0here<\/a>,\u00a0here<\/a>,\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0here<\/a>. Be that as it may, this report is the best we have, so we should look at its findings for 2021 to see how disastrously the UK\u2019s climate is deteriorating in front of our eyes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first thing to note is that the most recent 30-year reference period is changed from 1981\u20132010 to 1991\u20132020. There is of course a lot of detail, about all aspects of the weather, sea-level and much else, with seasons looked at as much as the year overall. From the executive summary the first piece of information, however, is distinctly underwhelming:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, UK temperature and sunshine for 2021 were near average and rainfall slightly below.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for land temperature:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021 was 0.1\u00b0C warmer than the 1991\u20132020 average, and 18th warmest in the UK series from 1884.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there was quite a bit of seasonal variation, none of which seems to have been predicted, to be predictable, or to be something we can do much to adapt against:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Winter and spring were colder than the 1991\u20132020 average. However, 2021 included the UK\u2019s ninth warmest summer and equal-third warmest autumn on record in series from 1884.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the most recent decade showing declining days of both ground and air frost, 2021 bucked that trend:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers of air and ground frosts in 2021 were above the 1991\u20132020 average.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The numbers of air frosts and ground frosts in April 2021 were the highest on record for the UK in series from 1960.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s probably bad news, but is the opposite of what we have been told to expect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, this doesn\u2019t look like bad news to be worried about and guarded against:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heating and cooling degree days in 2021 were near the 1991\u20132020 average. Growing degree days were seventh highest for the UK in a series from 1960.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for near-coast sea surface temperature:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021 was ranked 20th warmest year for UK near-coastal sea-surface temperature (SST) in a series from 1870.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Again, then, a gently warming trend with no great drama in view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well surely rainfall must have been significant? After all, this is something the media constantly tell us is becoming more dramatic. Well, not really:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021 rainfall was 95% of the 1991\u20132020 average and 102% of the 1961\u20131990 average.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There were some monthly variations within those statistics, but again nothing that seems to have been predicted or to be readily predictable:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2021 included the UK\u2019s fifth driest April and second wettest May in monthly series from 1836.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Snow is a particularly problematic from of precipitation. What about it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a week in early February the UK experienced its most widespread and significant snow event since late February to early March 2018.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of overall snowiness, 2021 was a fairly average year when compared to the last 60\u2009years\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sunshine, then. Surely there\u2019s some drama here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UK 2021 annual sunshine total was 99% of the 1991\u20132020 average.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, here it is \u2013 the big reveal:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

April 2021 was the UK\u2019s equal-sunniest April on record in a series from 1919, shared with April 2020, and also the sunniest calendar month of the year.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well, it\u2019s definitely getting stormier, isn\u2019t it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the notable exception of storm Arwen, the year was less stormy than most other years in recent decades.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There have been fewer occurrences of max gust speeds exceeding 40\/50\/60 Kt for the last two decades compared to the 1980s and 1990s.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UK annual mean wind speed for 2021 was second lowest in a series from 1969.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UK annual mean wind speed from 1969 to 2021 shows a downward trend, consistent with that observed globally.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this series must be interpreted with some caution.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We aren\u2019t told why it has to be treated with caution, but the need to do so is obvious \u2013 it contradicts the prevailing narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What about leaves? They\u2019re a good indicator of a warming climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First leaf dates in 2021 were earlier than the baseline (1999\u20132020) for species that leaf earlier in the season (e.g., Elder normally in March), but delayed by the cold April for later leafing species (e.g., Pedunculate Oak normally in April). This resulted in a mixed spring overall.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bare tree dates in 2021 were 2\u20135\u2009days later than normal with Pedunculate Oak pushed back to early December.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, the 2021 leaf-on season was only 1\u20137\u2009days longer than the 1999\u20132020 baseline because of the colder spring.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not a lot to see there, then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am being slightly flippant. The detail is very impressive and the report is well worth a read by anyone with an interest in this subject. However, the main thing to take away (albeit, of course, this is a report on only a single year\u2019s weather) is that the catastrophic narrative with regard to the UK\u2019s climate seems to be greatly exaggerated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

However, the main thing to take away (albeit, of course, this is a report on only a single year\u2019s weather) is that the catastrophic narrative with regard to the UK\u2019s climate seems to be greatly exaggerated.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":267840,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691820938,691821137,691818248,691821138],"class_list":["post-267828","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-warming","tag-royal-meteorological-society","tag-uk","tag-world-meteorological-organization-wmo","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0GettyImages-1529221508-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-17FO","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":448057,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=448057","url_meta":{"origin":267828,"position":0},"title":"Lets 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