{"id":267765,"date":"2023-07-16T19:30:07","date_gmt":"2023-07-16T17:30:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267765"},"modified":"2023-07-16T19:30:21","modified_gmt":"2023-07-16T17:30:21","slug":"world-population-political-statistics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=267765","title":{"rendered":"World Population \u2013 Political Statistics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comment by Kip Hansen \u2014 14 July 2023<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Many of you probably follow\u00a0Statistica<\/a><\/em>\u00a0\u2013 I know I get emails almost daily with some visual presentation of some data set from somewhere.\u00a0Over the last year, I have begun to suspect that some of the illustrations and presentations have political motivations (meaning: seemingly produced for propaganda purposes for some group \u2013 or maybe just representing the group bias of the employees, owners, or managers at\u00a0Statistica<\/em>).\u00a0 This commentary is not about that issue, however.\u00a0 [If readers have specific examples of that aspect of the \u201cStatistica<\/em>\u00a0issue\u201d, \u00a0I would appreciate a note in comments or an email to my first name at i4.net].<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here I just want to look at what has become a run-away\u00a0bad habit<\/em>\u00a0in the field of science and data. \u00a0Here\u2019s the illustration whose purpose is, according to\u00a0Statistica<\/em>, to \u201cEmpower\u2026 people with data\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This\u00a0illustration<\/a>\u00a0comes with a caption by Felix Richter:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAccording to United Nations\u2019 latest projections of global population, India surpassed China as the world\u2019s most populous country in April 2023. Having gradually closed the gap to China from more than 200 million people in 2000 to little more than 10 million in 2022, the UN Population Division predicts India\u2019s population to reach 1,429 million in July 2023, surpassing long-time leader China by 3 million people.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent years, China\u2019s population growth has slowed down notably due to its one-child policy before reaching an inflection point in 2022, when China\u2019s population declined for the first time since 1961, when three years of famine had decimated the country\u2019s population.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For India, which is currently expected to continue growing until the 2060s, its new position as the world\u2019s most populous country will come with a new set of challenges, both domestically and internationally. These challenges include providing access to healthcare, education, and employment opportunities to an ever-growing number of people, all while finding its role in the global political and economic landscape.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking beyond India and China, the UN predicts a continental shift in population growth over the next few decades. With Europe\u2019s population already declining and Asia\u2019s and Latin America\u2019s growth expected to turn negative in the 2050s, Africa is set to be the largest driver of global population growth for decades to come. By 2100, five African nations are expected to join India, China, and the United States among the world\u2019s 10 most populous countries, with Nigeria projected to reach a population of half a billion before 2080. This demographic shift at the global level will require new approaches to managing resources, promoting sustainable development, and addressing issues such as poverty, inequality and access to healthcare and education.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In my view, there are obvious outright errors in the data presented \u2013 if anyone wishes to chase those up, give us the scoop in comments.\u00a0 One quick example \u2013 readers are encouraged to ferret out others \u2013 is the projection (allegedly by the UN) of China\u2019s population in 2100.\u00a0 The chart shows that \u201cThe UN Projects\u201d\u00a0<\/em>that China\u2019s population will be reduced to \u00bd its current level in the next 75 years.\u00a0 Yes, dropping from 1,426 million to 767 million.\u00a0 Even Chairman Mao couldn\u2019t get rid of that many people that fast: \u00a0\u201cIn 1958, he launched the Great Leap Forward that aimed to rapidly transform China\u2019s economy from agrarian to industrial, which led to the deadliest famine in history and the deaths of\u00a015\u201355 million<\/strong>\u00a0people between 1958 and 1962.\u201d [\u00a0wiki<\/a>\u00a0]\u00a0 How is China going to get rid of over\u00a0half a billion people<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0in just 75 years?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nigeria is shown with a projected population in 2100 of over 500 million (half a billion) \u2013 a doubling of current population.\u00a0 That would be 1400 persons per square mile \u2013 or 541 persons per square kilometer.\u00a0 The current population density in the United States is 94 persons per square mile.\u00a0 I guess it is possible but I believe that national resources would be stretched exceedingly thin at that population level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those who wish can dig into the U.N.\u2019s report (here\u2019s\u00a0the link to the Summary<\/a>\u00a0again).\u00a0 Interesting but not my issue today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My complaint is this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We do not and cannot have data about the future.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, I know\u00a0Statistica<\/em>\u00a0labels the future data as\u00a0projections<\/em>\u2026.and blames those projections on the United Nations\u2026.but it\u00a0does not do anything to visually distinguish<\/em>\u00a0between the actually counted (calculated, estimated, etc) data \u2013 real data from the past and of the present \u2014 and the projections from the U.N. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, I don\u2019t want to disparage the general public but it is my understanding that when experts speak, particularly using illustrations, images, graphs, that the general public simply accepts these statements (especially pictures \u2013 visuals) as true.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, though I am loathe to bring up the issue once again, there is\u00a0no\u00a0uncertainty<\/strong>\u00a0shown in the \u201cprojections\u201d<\/em>\u00a0despite that fact that some of the projections (China, for instance) are very alarming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is the uncertainty claimed for the 2100 projections\u00a0by the cited UN source<\/a>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIII. Long-range population projections to 2100 \u00a0\u2014\u00a0 Long-range population projections are\u00a0highly uncertain<\/strong>, especially for high-fertility countries still in the early stages of the demographic transition.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this case,\u00a0Statistica<\/em>\u00a0has failed its customers (and the general public). Instead of empowering the pubic with knowledge, they have misrepresented HIGHLY UNCERTAIN projections about the future as if they had the same veracity, trustworthiness, as historical data.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The\u00a0original UN report<\/a>\u00a0(duplicate link \u2013 .pdf) shows how this error can be avoided with illustrations similar to one in the U.N. report here on life expectancy.\u00a0 The data is shown in solid colors and the projections of the future are 1) set off by a vertical dashed line, demarking a new graph area labelled clearly \u201cProjections\u201d\u00a0 and 2) the projections are showed in dashed lines giving a visual effect of uncertainty (less solid).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s a lot of words to say a thing that is so simple that we often overlook it:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no data about the future.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no evidence about the future.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not yet, at least.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

# # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Author\u2019s Comment:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Please spare me the nonsense that \u201cWe know the Sun will rise tomorrow\u201d as an example of having data about the future. (Yes, this has been used by readers here in the past).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, admittedly, this is somewhat of a nit-pick \u2013 but\u00a0it is an important nit-pick\u00a0<\/strong>\u2013 as the scientific principles of what is data and what is evidence \u00a0is so often violated.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the real world, the one in which we all live, there are children wracked with grief because they have been told repeatedly that the world is ending, that they will have no future.\u00a0 They are told that \u201cthe scientific data shows this.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0 A bigger lie could not be told.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A reasonable person can make reasonable decisions about his immediate future \u2013 that\u2019s how we manage to live from day to day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I will decide whether to go sailing this afternoon based on local weather conditions and my favorite weather program\u2019s \u00a0guess about the still-hours-away future. \u00a0So far, those guesses encourage me to do so. Have a good day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks for reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS: The weather prediction for wind on the local water turned out to be  wrong \u2013 the wind increased to a snotty 15-20 kts, variable and gusty, with a bit of rain mixed in instead of the predicted decrease to a pleasant 8-10 kts. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There is no data about the future. There is no evidence about the future. Not yet, at least.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":267778,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818341,691818237,691821121,691821120],"class_list":{"0":"post-267765","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-china","9":"tag-india","10":"tag-nigeria","11":"tag-un-predicts","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0world-population.jpg?fit=1499%2C957&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-17EN","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":249521,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=249521","url_meta":{"origin":267765,"position":0},"title":"Emissions and CO2 Concentration: An Evidence Based Approach","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"When we make predictions with hypothetical future CO2 emissions, we do not know the future temperatures.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1062.png?fit=1200%2C643&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1062.png?fit=1200%2C643&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1062.png?fit=1200%2C643&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1062.png?fit=1200%2C643&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1062.png?fit=1200%2C643&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":421786,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421786","url_meta":{"origin":267765,"position":1},"title":"Meta Does It Right with Nuclear Power","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Meta is making some of the boldest and most comprehensive moves in the tech industry to secure nuclear power for its massive AI data centers- and many analysts and commentators see it as doing things right. 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